USG SHIP VISIT TO CYPRUS: WEIGHING THE COST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001076

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2015
TAGS: CY TU PREL MOPS MARR
SUBJECT: USG SHIP VISIT TO CYPRUS: WEIGHING THE COST

REF: A. NICOSIA 0304


B. 2004 ANKARA 6615

C. IIR 689801035

(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958,
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: A USN ship visit to the Republic of Cyprus
(ROC) at this time (ref A) would have a negative impact in
Turkey. The Turks, including the military, will interpret a
visit now (post-April 24 referendum) as support for
Papadopoulos and a slap at the Turkish Cypriots. End
Summary.


2. (C) Reftel provides Embassy Nicosia's analysis of the
impact of a ship visit to the ROC on Greek and Turkish
Cypriots. We provide below our view of the likely impact in
Turkey of a USN ship visit to the Republic of Cyprus.

What to Expect in Turkey
--------------


3. (C) Turks in general have the perception that the Turkish
Cypriots have received almost no benefit from voting for
reunification and a solution this past April. They see Greek
Cypriots, on the other hand, as having paid no price for
having voting against it. They view any U.S. or EU actions
on Cyprus through that prism.


4. (C) A USN ship visit would likely redirect toward the
U.S. Turkish ire currently aimed mostly at the EU. After our
recent trade delegation to the north, which engendered
significant good will, there is broad recognition we have
tried to pursue a positive course. A ship visit to the south
will wipe that out, and will be perceived as a USG slap in
the Turkish Cypriots' face.

-- This perception will be exacerbated by the Turks'
long-standing objection to Greek Cypriot "closure" of the
north's ports.

-- Our Cyprus policy has been a welcome exception to the
recent wave of anti-Americanism in Turkey (ref B); a ship
visit would put that at risk.

-- Albeit wrongly, Turks will perceive the visit as support
for Papadopoulos. Any Greek Cypriot gloating over the visit
will receive prominent media coverage here, to our detriment.

-- A ship visit would also revive popular speculation and
conspiracy theories about the U.S. desire for bases on Cyprus
at a time when they had finally died down.

-- Ref C suggests that a ship visit to Cyprus could also
damage navy-to-navy relations.


5. (C) The only potential ameliorating factor could be
portraying the visit as the continuation of a normal pattern
of visits. Unfortunately, as we understand the
circumstances, there has been no port call to the ROC by any
significant USN ship since September 11, 2001. The visit of
a seagoing tug and a few off-shore submarines do not create
the necessary patterns. This would prevent us from employing
this counter argument.

Marmaris Maritime Festival
--------------


6. (C) We understand that one option that has been under
consideration would be to have the ship participating in the
Marmaris International Maritime Festival conduct a follow-on
visit to Cyprus. This would be problematical. The Turks
deny entry to aircraft whose previous or subsequent
destination is the Republic of Cyprus. They will likely have
the same policy with a USN vessel, necessitating at minimum
an intervening port. The Turks will view as USG deception a
subsequent visit to Cyprus by a USN vessel that previously
participated in the Festival, regardless of any intervening
port.

7. (C) Comment: Our summary judgment is that a ship visit
to the Republic of Cyprus at this time will have a
significant negative impact in Turkey. End Comment.
EDELMAN