MGLE01: PLO REFUGEE DEPT. ON ZAKI'S NEXT MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 009327

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV PTER SY IS LE JO
SUBJECT: MGLE01: PLO REFUGEE DEPT. ON ZAKI'S NEXT MISSION
TO LEBANON

REF: BEIRUT 3799

Classified By: DCM Daniel Rubinstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PLO Department of Refugee Affairs (DORA) DG
Mohammed Abu Bakr is preparing to return to Beirut with
Palestinian Commissioner Abbas Zaki in mid-December to
commence negotiations with the GOL. According to Abu Bakr,
the PLO is ready to assume sole negotiating responsibility in
order to secure the continued engagement of PM Siniora's
government. However, Abu Bakr is trying to neutralize the
PFLP-GC's historical influence over the PLO DORA offices in
Beirut to take full advantage of Lebanon's willingness to
improve conditions in Lebanon's refugee camps. Abu Bakr also
believes that Abbas Zaki has decided to visit Damascus en
route to Lebanon to lay the groundwork for his discussions on
Palestinian militia disarmament. He also revealed that Zaki
has had problems recruiting an official to head the PLO's
formal diplomatic mission in Beirut. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) BACKGROUND: Abu Bakr is a former private banker and
ally of the PA President. Abu Mazen appointed him to join
Abu Zaki's negotiating team shortly after meeting with PM
Siniora in Paris. He accompanied Zaki on his initial
November 5-11 mission to Lebanon and participated in Zaki's
calls on factional and militant leaders, including Hizballah
leader Nasrallah. Abu Bakr was organizing the PLO's return
mission until November 19 when he was hospitalized in Amman
with a life-threatening heart condition. He briefed visiting
PRM Acting A/S Greene on the PLO strategy shortly before
being hospitalized, and contacted refcoord again after his
release from the hospital November 28 to review how the
meeting PM Siniora and PA President Abu Mazen held over the
weekend in Barcelona was affecting PLO strategy.

PLO PREPARED TO START TALKS WEEK OF DECEMBER 11
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3. (C) On November 28, Abu Bakr confirmed that he and Abbas
Zaki were preparing to return to Lebanon the week of December
11 to start negotiations with the GOL. Characterizing Abu
Mazen's position as "sincere and committed," he confirmed
that the PLO is prepared to assume sole responsibility for
the Palestinian negotiating position, but noted that he and
Zaki would need to continue to leverage their position on the
ground to fulfill their strategic objectives of ensuring
Palestinian refugees are not used as "bullets in the guns of
others" and to take advantage of the unprecedented
opportunity the GOL was providing to improve the conditions
Palestinian refugees face in Lebanon.

ZAKI TO VISIT SYRIA MID-DECEMBER EN ROUTE TO BEIRUT
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4. (C) Abu Bakr believes that Zaki has decided to visit
Damascus en route to Lebanon. He revealed that SARG GAPAR DG
Ali Moustapha (strictly protect) had approached him on the
margins of a November 15-17 UNRWA stakeholders meeting at the
Dead Sea to convey an offer to facilitate such a visit, and
indicated that the PLO hopes that that overture means the
SARG will exert constructive pressure on the PFLP-GC and the
Fatah al-Intifada. Abu Bakr thought Zaki would meet with
rejectionist groups if SARG meetings do not materialize to
try to leverage messages groups in northern Lebanon are
clearly receiving. Abu Bakr explained that Zaki received a
cold reception when he visited the pro-Syrian camps in the
north, and was also warned by Nasrallah "not to discuss
disarmament with Lebanon" during his last visit. (COMMENT:
Abu Bakr suspects that Ali Moustapha, a Palestinian refugee,
may be acting on his own initiative. END COMMENT.) Abu Bakr
also indicated that Zaki was having difficulty recruiting
officials from within PLO ranks to represent them in Beirut.
According to Abu Bakr, former PLO Representative in Lebanon
Shafiq El Hout rejected Zaki's offer to head the formal
diplomatic mission the GOL is reestablishing. Abu Bakr also
noted that practical issues are working against them. The
PLO, for example, is still waiting for the GOL to respond to
its request to help evict/compensate several Lebanese
families squatting in its Beirut offices.

PLO, UNRWA POSITIONING THEMSELVES TO RAMP UP AID
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5. (C) However, Abu Bakr said that he is trying to
immediately open a separate office in Beirut to start
GOL/Palestinian coordination on humanitarian aid issues,
explaining that it is critical to de-link humanitarian aid
initiatives from disarmament talks in the mind of Palestinian
factions on the ground. While acknowledging that all
Palestinian factions generally support improving refugee
living conditions, Abu Bakr said that there is deep
skepticism about Zaki's motivations. Abu Bakr added that he
does not trust the existing PLO/DORA office in Beirut to work
constructively with the GOL, explaining that the rejectionist
sympathies of some of the staff in that office have left the
DORA office "a virtual PFLP-GC office in the eyes of the
refugees." (NOTE: Abu Bakr needs external funding to open
this office; he has approached the Swiss in Amman to date.
END NOTE.) In addition to establishing a trusted team to
work on humanitarian issues in Beirut, Abu Bakr has secured
the agreement of Gaza-based head of PLO/DORA/Fatah Central
Committee Member Dr. Zakaria al Agha, to make his first trip
to Beirut December 14 to persuade Lebanon Fatah Party
Representative Sultan Abu Al-Aynayn to support his efforts.
Abu Bakr said he also hoped to explore whether PLO/DORA could
use its own funding to immediately launch projects to
ameliorate conditions in the camps.

6. (C) Separately, UNRWA Lebanon Field Director Richard Cook
told PRM A/S Greene in a November 17 meeting at the Dead Sea
that UNRWA is starting to position itself to take advantage
of the new openings presented by the GOL's Palestinian
initiative. According to Cook, Commissioner-General Abu Zayd
is currently deciding whether UNRWA should launch a separate
appeal for Lebanon, given that several pressing projects to
repair UNRWA's severely deteriorating housing, sewer and
water systems in Beirut camps were removed from the Medium
Term Plan, which UNRWA launched in February, based on the
lack of GOL support that existed at that time. Cook
predicted that UNRWA would proceed cautiously and use a new
15 million Euro package of education projects that UNRWA
expects to sign with the EC in Beirut next month as a test
case. (NOTE: The GOL has indicated that it is actively
considering providing UNRWA additional land outside its
densely populated camps in Beirut to construct four new
schools. END NOTE.)


7. (U) PRM Acting A/S Greene and Embassy Beirut cleared this
message.

HALE