JORDANIAN REASSURANCES ON NEIGHBORS' CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 000087

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2010
TAGS: PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN REASSURANCES ON NEIGHBORS' CONFERENCE


Classified By: Charge David Hale, Reasons 1.4 (B) & (D)


1. (C) On a daily basis, the Charge has received
reassurances this week from the King, Royal Court Minister,
and Foreign Minister that the January 6 Neighbors,
Conference will reflect solid support for holding Iraq's
elections on time and with maximum participation. Jordanian
officials, including at the palace, are confident they have
secured support for this line from all participants. Foreign
Minister al-Mulki gave us the draft communiqu (strictly
protect; text faxed to NEA/LEA) late January 4. Mulki said
participating states have agreed to the text. It is fully in
step with the neighbors, Sharm declaration. On elections,
the text welcomes "all steps taken so far to achieve
democracy in Iraq and to support the steps taken by the
Interim Government of Iraq to hold elections on 30 January
2005." The communiqu also urges "all segments of the broad
spectrum of the Iraqi people to take up their duty in the
forthcoming polling process; thus contribute to the shaping
of their future, as the elections represent the only
opportunity in sight along the path of democracy and
freedom." There is no other language in the draft that could
be viewed as qualifying this message. The Government of
Jordan is also committed to ensuring maximum participation in
polling held in Jordan for the 300,000 Iraqi migrs here, a
majority of whom are Sunni. They see in it an opportunity to
boost Sunni participation.


2. (C) The King has continued to emphasize to visitors and
Charge the importance of being vigilant in the post-election
phase to protecting minority rights, ensuring the
constitution reflects the interests of all sects, including
Sunnis, and preventing Iranian manipulation of the outcome.
Jordanian statements about a monolithic, Iranian-directed
hostile Shia "crescent" potentially emerging from a Shia
"victory" in the elections lack nuance, but they reflect
centuries-old fears of a Persian menace, now revived by
Iraq's present incapacity to play its traditional role as the
Arabs, bulwark against Iran. Late in the day, Jordanian
officials have begun to recognize the damage these statements
have made to their standing with Shia ) including those who
will come out on top in Iraq, and with whom Jordan will need
to fashion a relationship. This recognition has led to a
not-so-convincing shift of rhetoric, which now stresses that
Iraq's election results should reinforce the "Arab" nature of
the Iraqi republic, thus de-emphasizing sectarianism.


3. (C) The Jordanians have only just begun to adjust
themselves mentally to the reality that the composition of
Iraq's future government will reflect the nation's Shia
majority. However, they also have begun to see the
importance of helping moderate, secular Shia such as Allawi
build alliances with Sunni elements. We should not
overestimate Jordan's capacity to help in this regard, but we
can count on them to do what is within their reach.
HALE