ADVOCATES AND SKEPTICS SHARE THEIR VIEWS ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007986

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA FRONT OFFICE, NEA/ELA
STATE ALSO FOR EB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2015
TAGS: PGOV ECON EFIN PREL JO
SUBJECT: ADVOCATES AND SKEPTICS SHARE THEIR VIEWS ON THE
NATIONAL AGENDA

REF: A. AMMAN 7498

B. AMMAN 6898

C. AMMAN 5849

D. AMMAN 5065

Classified By: CDA DAVID HALE FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Jordanian political class awaits the
release of the reform recommendations of the Royal Commission
for the National Agenda (NA),Jordanian officials and
political observers shared their views on the prospects for
reform with visiting NEA Deputy Assistant Secretary Elizabeth
Dibble during her late September visit to Amman. DPM Marwan
Muasher highlighted a reformed electoral law, a new political
parties law, and tax reform as the three issues to tackle
early on in the comprehensive national plan for the next
decade. Planning for the rollout of the thousand-page NA
report later in October is underway, including a shorter,
more digestible summary of the text. Some leading political
analysts expressed skepticism that real political reform
could overcome the power of entrenched political elites.
COMMENT: For all the intense work put into the National
Agenda over the past seven months, the GOJ's heavy lifting
has yet to begin. END COMMENT AND SUMMARY.

DPM Muasher: Upbeat NA Facilitator
--------------


2. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher, the chairman of
the Royal Commission for the National Agenda, described for
Dibble on September 25 the work of the Commission's eight
committees comprised of over 200 leaders and experts -
overwhelmingly from outside government - who met over the
past seven months to hammer out a blueprint for reform-driven
political, economic and social development in Jordan (Refs A,
B). Pulling from his desk a 5-inch thick document, Muasher
flipped through the full text of the National Agenda to show
how each of the sections included performance indicators for
which ministries would be held responsible. He noted that
the NA language was flexible enough to accommodate changing
conditions while being applied to each task. The Agenda
would call for actions from government, the private sector,
and partnerships of the two.


3. (C) Boosting the rule of law in Jordan is a central
element of the NA, Muasher noted. For example, the NA
criticizes the manner by which Jordan adapted to global
economic competition (and acceded to the WTO) by adopting
over 220 provisional laws and amendments to laws while
parliament was out of session. COMMENT: We have heard this
criticism aired privately by retired ministers concerned
about constitutionality, but never in public and not in a
document to be proposed for adoption by the government. END
COMMENT. This and other similar sections of the NA may not
be very welcome to some in the GOJ, Muasher opined, but they
reflected the transparent process by which the National
Agenda had been crafted.


4. (C) Muasher said the three most prominent pieces of the
NA were the elections law, a political parties law, and tax
reform. Of these three, he focused on legislation regarding
elections and parties as critical next steps in the very near
future without which the rest of the NA could not move
forward. NOTE: In a separate conversation, U.K. Ambassador
Christopher Prentice repeated for Dibble this same scenario,
based on his briefing with Muasher, an indication this is a
consistent GOJ message. END NOTE. For Muasher, tax reform -
devising an equitable system that consistently collects
revenues - is an issue to be picked up in 2006, after the
first two hurdles have been overcome.


5. (C) Muasher lamented the difficulties he has faced in
getting the word out to the public on the National Agenda.
Once he has a final version, Muasher predicted he would be in
a better position to market it. Muasher took pride in the
shorter and more readable version of the document his staff
was producing, which would help make the case for the NA with
graphics, charts and slides.


6. (C) Muasher thought it likely the chief opposition to the
Commission's recommendations would come from two camps:
first, from within "the political establishment of this
country" - a reference to elements who would see themselves
losing power under political and media reforms and, second,
"from the skeptics", chiefly in the media, who do not believe
a government commission is capable of producing
recommendations for serious reform. Muasher believed at
least the second camp would be won over after the release of
the report.

Hatough-Boran: Buy-In and Consensus Key
--------------


7. (C) Acting Foreign Minister and Minister of Tourism
Hatough-Boran told DAS Dibble the National Agenda represented
nothing less than the future of Jordan. Reflecting the
Cabinet's general knowledge of the NA process (vice Muasher's
intimate, day-by-day handling of the NA),she said that
consideration was now being given on how to present the
National Agenda to the public. Boran surmised that it was
critical to have something akin to a "public debate," and
that more players had to be involved in laying the groundwork
for it. Each of the 200 experts who participated in drafting
the National Agenda now have to go back to their
constituencies and sell the reform message. Because this
represented the ideas, the concepts, and the future of
Jordan, GOJ officials have to do it right and play it right,
she said. Boran noted that the Jordanian habit of heavily
criticizing any initiative would be an obstacle to consensus.
Journalists' attitudes so far were mixed.


8. (C) Boran said the GOJ planned to involve embassies of
donor nations in the rollout - the National Agenda in each of
its sections is keyed to foreign assistance requests for
specific amounts - and that Prime Minister Badran would give
the NA a needed push. Responding to DAS Dibble's comment,
she concluded that Jordan was definitely committed to
remaining a leader of reform in the region.


9. (C) Central Bank of Jordan Deputy Governor Mohammad
Shahin noted to Dibble that the National Agenda had an
important economic component, including the portion he was
interested in - finance and banking. He said that Jordan
wanted to be a "financial hub," but that the many
prerequisites were "tremendous" in terms of legal and other
regulatory commitments. The National Agenda spelled these
out, he added.

Dinner With the Skeptics
--------------


10. (C) At a dinner hosted by Charge September 26 with four
leading academic and media political analysts, Dibble heard
views typical of the second, "skeptical camp" identified by
Muasher above. Political columnist Oreib Rintawi, supported
by two of the other Jordanian guests, noted that
government-driven initiatives for reform -- the "Jordan
Charter" campaign of the early 1990's, and the "Jordan First"
campaign in the late nineties -- had been tried before.
Rintawi was included in these efforts, and worked just as
hard as the NA royal commission recently had. But according
to Rintawi, the earlier reform commissions' recommendations
"had gone nowhere" and he expected the same of the NA.
American-educated Yarmouk University political scientist
Muhammad Mo'many pushed back, pointing out that the palace
had taken on, and been bruised by, Jordan's entrenched
political interests this spring in the stand-off over PM
Badran's cabinet (Refs C, D). Mo'mani called on commentators
to wait until the plan's rollout before condemning it.


11. (C) COMMENT: While DPM Muasher appeared tired as he
explained how much had gone into building the NA, he seemed
relieved that he could now move into the next phase of
introducing a finished product to the public. This phase,
too, may exact a price - this time political - from those who
are tasked with selling the National Agenda to a wary public,
especially entrenched East Bank elites still uncertain of the
King's vision that to some degree has only peeled away the
comfortable cocoon of paternalistic government to which they
have become accustomed.


12. (U) DAS Dibble did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
HALE