SAAD KHAYR ON IRAQ, IRAN, PEACE PROCESS, SYRIA

1. (C) IRAQ: Former GID Director (and head of Jordan's
embryonic National Security Council) Saad Khayr told the
Charge September 7 that King Abdallah's visit to Turkey
earlier this week focused on Iraq and Israeli-Palestinian
issues. On Iraq, Khayr said the Turks shared Jordan's
interest in seeing greater Sunni engagement in the political
process, and were hopeful the draft constitution could be
further improved later on to meet Sunni concerns. Khayr
highlighted Iyad Allawi as particularly able to bring the
Sunnis into the process, though the GoJ's discussion with the
Turks did not specifically address Allawi as a future
candidate for PM (likely what Khayr or others in the GoJ have
in mind). Fearing that its planned Sunni-Shia reconciliation
conference could get caught up in the debate over the
constitution, the GoJ has decided to postpone the event,
perhaps until the pre-referendum timeframe.



2. (S) IRAN: Khayr said he will travel Sept. 7 to Tehran for
a short visit, his first in two years, to assess new Iranian
President Ahmedinajad. Khayr noted the recent appointment of
the new Iranian Interior Minister -- reportedly a senior aide
to the Intelligence Minister -- as yet another indication of
the hardline consolidation within Iran. Khayr predicted the
Iranian hardliners would try to project a desire for good
relations with the GoJ notwithstanding their continued
attempts to undermine Jordan's interests behind the scenes.
Charge urged Khayr to encourage positive Iranian behavior on
Iraq, nuclear technology, the Israeli-Palestinian peace
process, and Syria/Lebanon, and noted that while the Iranians
may not have had a direct hand in the Aqaba attack, the
Katyusha itself undoubtedly came from one of their terrorist
appendages.



3. (C) ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS: Closer to home, Khayr indicated
he had met with Israeli PM Sharon in Jerusalem recently.
After hearing from Sharon of his precarious political
situation within the Likud and resulting inability to offer
any confidence-building measures for the Palestinians (e.g.,
releases of Palestinian prisoners, movement on the airport
issue) at this time, the Jordanians decided to postpone the
King's travel to Jerusalem and Ramallah which the King had
earlier told the Charge he wanted to do prior to his
Washington visit and which has surfaced in regional media.
Rather than go to Ramallah only, the King decided to postpone
both stops. Sharon told Saad there would be unprecedented
Israeli retaliation to any Palestinian attacks, and laid out
a tough message on Palestinian security requirements --
dissolve and disarm the terrorist groups and implement
security reforms now. Saad agreed these were necessary
steps, but personally doubted Abu Mazen could deliver.



4. (C) SYRIA: Khayr agreed entirely on the need for
continued isolation and pressure. The Charge asked for his
help in spreading the word to other Arab states, especially
in treating the Syrian delegation to the UNGA at arms' length.
HALE