JORDANIAN REACTION TO DRAFT IRAQI CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 007122

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IZ JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN REACTION TO DRAFT IRAQI CONSTITUTION

REF: A. AMMAN 7071

B. AMMAN 6689

Classified By: DCM Daniel Rubinstein for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment. Post contacts outside the GOJ
have been uniformly negative in their reaction to the draft
Iraqi constitution, despite statements by the King and other
senior officials (ref A) encouraging the continuation of the
political process that produced the document. The highly
critical comments from contacts and the press are alarmist,
but reflect widespread public opinion in Jordan. Almost all
of Jordan's Muslims are Sunnis, and many harbor deeply
ingrained suspicions, if not outright prejudice, toward Iraqi
Shiites. In addition, television images of Sunni groups in
Iraq marching against the draft constitution has stoked
fears, already high after the August 19 terrorist attack in
Aqaba, that continuing violence could somehow spill over into
Jordan (ref B). End Summary and Comment.


2. (C) Former Jordanian ambassador to Iraq (and current
Senator) Faleh Al-Taweel commended to us provisions related
to political pluralism and religious freedom, but quickly
added that most of the draft constitution was "very
dangerous" to the unity of Iraq. In Taweel's opinion, the
document, if ratified, will strengthen Iranian influence in
southern Iraq, embolden the Kurds to eventually form a
separate state, and possibly lead to a civil war among
competing regions and ethnic groups. He chastised the U.S.
for trying to drum up support for this "fake constitution,"
and warned that the marginalization of Sunni negotiators
would encourage insurgents to step up their attacks. Oraib
Rantawi, head of the Al-Quds Political Research Center,
criticized the U.S. for "rushing" the constitutional process
and insisting on completion of a document before a consensus
could be reached. Rantawi said the draft constitution would
institutionalize power in separatist Kurds and "men loyal to
Iran," and pave the way for even more violence. Dr. Suleiman
Arabiyat, a respected academic and president of Mu'tah
University, denounced the draft constitution for "ignoring
the Arab identity of Iraq." He stated that by sidelining the
Sunni minority and giving ultimate political control to Shia
and Kurdish leaders intent on pursuing their own personal
agendas, the draft constitution would only prolong
instability and violence in Iraq.


3. (U) In general, commentary in the local press has echoed
these criticisms, and reflects a highly pessimistic take on
recent events in Iraq. Media commentator Raja Taleb, for
example, noted that while it was an important first step, the
draft constitution had given too much to the Shia and nothing
to the Sunnis, who he insists are the unifying linchpin of
Iraq. He believes that a coalition of Sunnis and Moqtada
el-Sadr will defeat this draft on October 15, and send the
political situation in Iraq back to zero.


4. (U) GOJ officials, in contrast, have been more upbeat in
their public reaction to events in Iraq. During a visit to
Jeddah on September 4, the Jordanian state news agency
(Petra) reported that Jordanian King Abdullah II and Saudi
King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz jointly called for "all Iraqi
people to participate in the political process," and
confirmed their support for Iraq's security and stability.

HALE