ANNOUNCEMENT OF ROYAL DECENTRALIZATION INITIATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000712

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI JO
SUBJECT: ANNOUNCEMENT OF ROYAL DECENTRALIZATION INITIATIVE
LEAVES MANY QUESTIONS UNANSWERED

REF: AMMAN 00639 (NOTAL)

Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) King Abdullah gave a nationally televised speech
January 26 announcing his intention to divide the country
into "a number of development regions," each with its own
directly-elected council (previewed reftel). The King said
this would help move government decision-making closer to the
grassroots level, and that he planned to form a royal
commission soon to propose mechanisms for its implementation.
Initial press reaction was predictably positive; several
post contacts expressed cautious optimism, but said that many
unanswered questions would have to be addressed before a real
assessment could be made. Privately, Royal Court Minister
Rifai has described the proposal for G-8 COMs in detail,
placed it in context of G-8/BMENA, and sought moral and
tangible assistance. End Summary.

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AN UNEXPECTED MOVE
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2. (U) With no advance public notice, King Abdullah
presented a speech on national TV and radio at 8:00 pm local
time on January 26. Emphasizing his commitment to achieving
"comprehensive development," the King highlighted the need to
"expand the base of public participation" in political life
and asserted that "political development should start at the
grassroots level, then move up to decision making centers."
In this context, the King declared his intention to create
"development areas, or regions" consisting of various
existing governorates. Each such area, the King explained,
will have a directly-elected council that will work with
municipal councils to "set priorities and draw up plans and
programs related to their respective regions." King Abdullah
added that he would shortly form a royal commission to
"study" this initiative and to "set the appropriate
mechanisms for its implementation."


3. (C) The King's speech was very general and did not
mention many of the points made by Royal Court Minister Samir
Rifai in his January 25 preview of the initiative to Charge
(ref). It did not, for example, provide any information on
the number of "development areas" to be created, the powers
to be exercised by the new councils, or the impact, if any,
on current government ministries and parliament. Neither did
the speech offer a time frame for the work of the royal
commission. Shortly before the speech, Rifai convoked G-8
COMs and put the initiative in the context of strengthening
Jordan's reform efforts. The royal commission's job would be
to develop draft legislation, and advise on other changes
needed, to create three states. These would be in the
northern, southern and central areas, with capitals in Irbid,
Karak and Amman (special provisions would be made to preserve
the autonomy of Aqaba and the QIZs). Each state would have
an elected parliament and an executive, who might be
initially appointed but later elected (Rifai hinted that
movement toward elected executives might go in tandem with
making the Prime Minister subject to some sort of election,
as well.) The aim was to strengthen a grassroots democratic
system more responsive to local priorities, and able to
coordinate development projects on a regional basis -
although the central government would retain a strong role in
such matters as education and security. It was also hoped
that this move would improve the work and quality of the
national parliament by removing their responsibilities to
manage local constituent needs. Truly national parties might
begin to flourish in such an environment, Rifai said.


4. (C) As for the local parliaments, Rifai stated their
members might number between 60 and 100, and there may
initially be quotas to ensure adequate representation by
women and youth. He anticipated local parliamentary
elections would come well before 2007, and noted there might
need to be adjustments in the term of the current national
parliament. Rifai envisioned a package approach, combining
the royal commission's work on this federalization initiative
with the government's work on a new national electoral and
parties law - to be unveiled together later in 2005. For the
time being, Rifai said, none of the reforms would require a
constitutional amendment. Jordan hoped for moral and
material help from the G-8. While Jordan would not
explicitly link this initiative to the G-8/BMENA process, it
was in fact connected. Jordanian officials hoped this effort
would facilitate other Middle East political experiments.

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PRESS LAUDS THE KING
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5. (SBU) Despite the generality of the King's address, the
local press responded very favorably (and predictably) to the
decentralization proposal. The English-language daily The
Jordan Times applauded the King for "taking his vision for
reform to the streets," while criticizing parliament for
being "preoccupied with itself rather than its
constituencies." Along the same lines, Arabic weekly Shihan,
widely seen as the mouthpiece for the General Intelligence
Directorate, carried a large headline reading "The King's
revolution," while just below another headline read "56% of
Jordanians have no confidence in their (parliamentary)
deputies." Prominent Arabic daily Al-Rai's lead commentary
described the King's initiative as "a qualitative leap on the
road to wide and comprehensive political participation."

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MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
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6. (C) Several post contacts have expressed guarded optimism
about the decentralization plan, but all have cautioned that
there are far too many unanswered questions to make any kind
of informed assessment. Leading political analyst Jamal
Tahat, for example, said the initiative was "rich with
possibilities," but added that he could not offer any
evaluation until he learned more details, including the
members of the royal commission. Other hyped proposals, he
noted, had previously turned out to be a bust. Deputy
Speaker of Parliament Mamdouh Abbadi, who dutifully appeared
on TV and radio directly after the King's speech to praise
the plan, likewise was cautious in his opinion. During a
dinner with emboffs, Abbadi remarked that he had been given a
copy of the speech to review less than an hour before the
King took to the airwaves, and that he could not speculate on
the possible benefits of the proposal until he learned
further information. Based on his experience with his MP
colleagues, however, he was skeptical that the proposed new
"regional councils" would be effective governing bodies.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) The dearth of detail in the King's speech gives the
palace and the GOJ plenty of leeway in deciding how to move
forward on (or how to pull back from) this potentially
ambitious project, although Rifai's account suggests the King
has a fairly specific agenda in mind. When asked by a G-8
COM, Rifai indicated that only a tiny handful of aides had
been privy to the initiative. It will be the job of the
royal commission to work on the details, iron out wrinkles
and build national consensus. The unfolding of that process
will tell us much about the intended structure,
responsibilities and powers of the new regional governments,
and how the powers of the national parliament will be
affected. Finance Minister Abu Hammour told EconCouns
January 27 that the regions would not have their own separate
budgets or any taxation powers, but would instead develop a
list of needs and priorities and then lobby the GOJ for funds
accordingly. Rifai indicated that the new states would be
given control over their own budgets, but not tax
authorities. In such details will be the evidence of how
extensive a devolution of power will occur. But in any
calculation, the King has launched an important and
innovative initiative to draw greater public participation
into the political process and stronger grassroots control
over issues that matter into Jordanians' daily lives. In our
public statements, we should avoid an overly tight embrace of
an initiative that should best be seen as homegrown, but our
public encouragement is warranted. Though USAID, the USG has
supported Jordanian efforts toward decentralization, and we
will look for ways to step up that assistance as the
federalization initiative proceeds.
HALE