ROYAL COMMISSION PREPARING TO RELEASE "NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 006898

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KMPI JO
SUBJECT: ROYAL COMMISSION PREPARING TO RELEASE "NATIONAL
AGENDA"; CRITICAL RECEPTION LIKELY

REF: A. AMMAN 6612

B. AMMAN 5230

C. AMMAN 4125

D. AMMAN 2427

E. AMMAN 2378

F. AMMAN 2043

Classified By: CDA Christopher Henzel for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Royal Commission charged by King
Abdullah with drafting a National Agenda has nearly completed
its work. Commission staff say 80% of the agenda's
recommendations are approaching final form. There is still
disagreement over a new elections law, however, with
traditionalists fighting to keep the current system, which
favors the East Bank minority. The King hopes to have a
complete working document ready before traveling to the U.S.
in mid-September. Amman's political class remains skeptical
about the agenda, pointing to a lack of transparency and
public input. The GOJ hopes to counter this sentiment with
an intensive public relations campaign once the agenda is
unveiled. The Commission's draft recommendations for a new
political parties law are an improvement on a poorly-received
draft law released in March. END SUMMARY.

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APPROACHING THE FINISH LINE
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2. (C) King Abdullah named a 26-member Royal Commission in
February 2005 to draft a comprehensive "National Agenda" that
would guide Jordan's development over the next ten years.
The Commission is composed of a cross-section of prominent
Jordanians, ranging from a conservative Islamist leader to a
liberal community activist, and is overseen by the
modernizing Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher. The
Commission has formed sub-committees and working groups that
include outside experts and private citizens to examine
specific subject areas (ref E). Meetings of the Commission
and related groups are not open to the public; most of the
work to date on the National Agenda has similarly been kept
out of the press. Except for a few MPs on the Commission or
its working groups, Parliament has not been consulted or
involved in the National Agenda process. Another commission
appointed by the palace in January 2005 is separately working
on a decentralization plan to divide Jordan into three
regions, each with its own legislature (ref F). This
commission, dominated by former ministers and old guard
politicians, is reportedly keen on using decentralization to
maintain East Banker political power.


3. (C) Ashraf Zeitoon, personal assistant to Deputy PM
Muasher, provided poloff during two recent meetings with an
update on the Commission's work in drafting the National
Agenda. According to Zeitoon, approximately 80% of the
agenda's recommendations have been or are currently being
drafted following the completion of substantive discussions
and study on relevant subject areas. Some of these
recommendations were "easy" to reach, he stated, while others
resulted only after considerable debate. Zeitoon added that
he had initially been skeptical about the National Agenda,
given that traditionalist forces had "won too many battles"
in past reform attempts, but was now strongly encouraged by
what he had seen. Muasher hopes to complete a working draft
for King Abdullah prior to the King's trip to the U.S. in
mid-September, with a finished product ready for public
release at the end of that month.


4. (C) Despite the progress that has been made, Zeitoon said
that there was still serious disagreement regarding electoral
law reform. East Bank hard-liners inside the Commission
intent on preserving the status quo were firmly resisting any
major changes to the existing system of electoral districts
that over-represent rural and tribal areas at the expense of
the urbanized Palestinian-Jordanian majority. Reformers were
equally intent on giving voters a broader choice of
candidates on the national level, but "without giving away
the store to the Islamists" who would probably do very well
if a new system rewarded nationally-organized slates.
Zeitoon said he was confident that a recommendation for
meaningful electoral reform would ultimately be achieved as
the King and the GOJ know all too well that the National
Agenda could be roundly derided if it failed to move the
country toward more representative politics. Zeitoon said
Muasher will seek a consensus within the Commission in
support of the recommendations, but if that is not possible,
he is confident that a majority will vote for the package
that is now taking shape. The challenge would then be to
dissuade opposition members from going public with their
objections.


5. (C) Zeitoon further noted that the commission appointed
by King Abdullah to draft a decentralization plan was also
considering the subject of national electoral reform in the
context of creating regional parliaments. This commission
would likely reach a recommendation on elections at odds with
that of the National Agenda, potentially resulting in a very
awkward situation for the GOJ. Zeitoon said that only the
King would be able to step in to prevent this from happening.


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PUBLIC DOUBTS
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6. (C) The comments of our contacts from across the
political and ethnic spectrum reveal widespread skepticism
regarding the National Agenda. Much of this stems from a
lack of transparency. Almost all meetings of the Commission
and working groups are held behind closed doors, and there
have been no public briefings on the agenda since Muasher's
statements at a press conference in June (ref B). Several
newspaper editors, for example, have recently complained to
PAO that despite the approaching September deadline, they
have heard nothing about the Commission's possible
recommendations. (NOTE: Muasher granted a brief joint
interview to two Arabic dailies on August 24 in which he
stated that National Agenda conclusions would be published in
the end of September, with a "workshop" to discuss agenda
topics tentatively scheduled for September 9 and 10. He also
confirmed that no "vision" had yet been reached on a new
elections law. END NOTE.) Similarly, the Speaker of the
lower house of parliament, Abdul Hadi Majali, griped to
Charge and A/DCM August 18 that MPSs (including those on
National Agenda committees) had been relegated to the
sidelines, even though they will be expected to approve
legislation implementing whatever the Commission recommends.



7. (C) When asked about transparency concerns, Zeitoon
defended the National Agenda process as being truly
representative of differing viewpoints in Jordan, pointing to
the clash on electoral reform as proof that the GOJ wasn't
simply dictating the outcomes. He nevertheless acknowledged
that drumming up broad public support for the National Agenda
would be a difficult task. Consequently, the government was
preparing a "major marketing campaign," to include
"roadshows" in each of the country's governorates, to sell
the benefits of the National Agenda to Jordanians. (NOTE: On
August 24, a contact in the Royal Court rejected criticism
over the lack of transparency, telling PAO that the National
Agenda was not meant to be a "national convention," but a
means to implement the King's will. He added that
transparency and discussion would come after the agenda was
published. END NOTE.)

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HOPE FOR POLITICAL PARTIES?
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8. (C) As an example of the progress made on the National
Agenda, Zeitoon shared with poloff draft recommendations for
new laws regulating political parties. These recommendations
(although not yet final) represent an attempt to address the
severe criticism which party leaders launched against a draft
political parties law unveiled by the GOJ in March 2005 (ref
D). While the recommendations still include the principle of
public funding long demanded by parties, it drops express
prohibitions against "interference" in the affairs of other
states or "harming" Jordan's relations with other countries.
(NOTE: Political parties would still be subject to
provisions of the constitution that give the government
powers to control activities that threaten "public order."
END NOTE.) In contrast to the March draft law's ban on the
use of clubs or charities by political organizations, the
recommendations allow recognized parties to establish
charities and clubs, in addition to research and polling
centers. Burdensome government oversight requirements that
were in the draft law are also considerably eased.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Although the bulk of the work on the National Agenda
may be complete, the most controversial issues remain. If no
consensus can be reached on electoral reform, the aggrieved
party (or parties) could attempt to sabotage the document
even before its formal unveiling. A parliament dominated by
traditionalist East Bankers will balk at recommendations that
threaten their hold on political power, and in the current
environment of fiscal belt-tightening it will be hard to buy
much support with pork-barrel projects. Thus, despite King
Abdullah's August 17 address to Jordanian politicians, in
which he expressed exasperation at the frequency with which
he was require to intervene in Jordanian politics (ref A),
the King will probably have to engage personally if the
National Agenda is to advance political reform.
HENZEL