IRAQ ELECTION UPDATE: JORDAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000672

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015
TAGS: ASEC KDEM PGOV PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQ ELECTION UPDATE: JORDAN

REF: A. AMMAN 586


B. AMMAN 468

C. AMMAN 342

D. AMMAN 293

Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Out-of-country (OCV) registration concluded January
25 with 20,166 Iraqis signing up to vote in Jordan. Turnout,
though very light, gradually increased during the
registration period from a low of 710 on the first day, to a
peak of 3679 on January 23. The International Organization
for Migration (IOM) reported no major problems affecting
registration and it anticipates procedurally smooth
elections. The head of the International Mission for the
Iraq Elections (IMIE) office in Jordan confirmed that the
IMIE Steering Committee will meet in Amman beginning on or
about January 28 to discuss the elections and future plans
for the organization. With no election monitors of its own
and only one consultant on the ground in Iraq, the IMIE will
have to rely heavily on information from others and work to
keep expectations for its mission "modest." Limited
political campaigning in Jordan has included large newspaper
ads placed by IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party.
End Summary.

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REGISTRATION FALLS SHORT OF THE MARK
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2. (SBU) OCV registration for Iraqis in Jordan, as well as
in other participating countries, came to an end on January
25 after a two-day extension. According to IOM figures,
20,166 Iraqis registered to vote in Jordan, with 280,303
registering worldwide. Turnout for the registration in
Jordan, compared to estimates of up to 200,000 eligible Iraqi
voters present here, remained low throughout the 9-day
registration period for a number of reasons (refs C and D).
However, according to contacts, positive word of mouth and
stepped up advertising and outreach efforts helped to
gradually increase the number of registrants from a low of
710 on the first day (January 17) to a high of 3679 on the
seventh day (January 23).


3. (SBU) The IOM office in Amman overseeing the OCV program
reported no major problems with registration in Jordan or
elsewhere. It anticipates that the voting process on January
28-30 should likewise proceed smoothly. Given the relatively
low number of registrants, the IOM expects that the voting
centers and their staff in Jordan should easily be able to
accommodate all registered Iraqis who come to cast a ballot.
EmbOffs will monitor several centers during the elections and
report septel.

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MANAGING EXPECTATIONS FOR THE IMIE
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4. (SBU) Grant Kippen, head of the IMIE office in Jordan,
told PolOff on January 26 that he was expecting 10 or more
members of the IMIE Steering Committee to arrive in Amman
shortly for a series of meetings beginning on or about
January 28 until January 31. Kippen said that the meetings
would focus on the "status and development of election
assessment reports," as well as the IMIE's future activities
prior to the constitutional referendum in Iraq on October 30.
Despite initial hopes that it would be able to place several
experienced international election consultants in Iraq (ref
D),Kippen said the IMIE had succeeded in hiring and sending
only one such consultant - Nora Kankashian - to Baghdad.
According to Kippen, Kankashian has been very active in Iraq
meeting with all major stakeholder groups.


5. (C) Kippen confirmed that the IMIE would not hire or
deploy any of its own election monitors. Consequently, in
developing its "assessment framework," it would have to rely
heavily on monitoring and reports by domestic Iraqi
organizations, political parties, diplomatic missions, and
other election observers. Kippen acknowledged that the scope
of the IMIE's proposed activities had been cut back for
security and other reasons, and said that the IMIE would have
to be careful to "maintain modest expectations" concerning
its mandate.

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CAMPAIGNING IN JORDAN
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6. (U) Limited political campaigning for the Iraqi elections
has taken place in Jordan. Several (mainly independent)
candidates have been in Amman recently to promote themselves,
while IIG PM Allawi's Iraqi List coalition party took out
splashy, full-page advertisements in Jordanian newspapers.
These ads, however, urged Iraqis to vote for the Iraqi List
without providing any information on the party's program or
candidates.

MINIMIZE CONSIDERED
HALE