GOJ PREVIEWS NATIONAL AGENDA FOR REFORM TO COUNTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005230

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL KMPI JO
SUBJECT: GOJ PREVIEWS NATIONAL AGENDA FOR REFORM TO COUNTER
PUBLIC SKEPTICISM

REF: A. SECTO 00033


B. AMMAN 04326

C. AMMAN 04125

D. AMMAN 02378

Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Royal Court Minister Muasher gave a briefing to press
June 22 on the status of the National Agenda committee,
followed by a meeting on June 27 to discuss reform with
private Jordanians. Promising feasible solutions rather than
rhetoric, Muasher stated that work on the National Agenda was
proceeding on schedule and that the committee had already
devised some recommendations. Contacts indicate that
discussions within the committee on political reform topics,
particularly a new elections law, have been marked by sharp
disagreement. Separately, leaders of 15 opposition political
parties issued their own vision for political reform. End
Summary.

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BREAKING THE SILENCE
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2. (U) After months of relative silence, Marwan Muasher,
Royal Court Minister and de facto head of the
palace-appointed committee charged with developing a
reformist "National Agenda" (refs C, D),updated reporters at
a government press briefing June 22 on the committee's work.
Highlighting some of the key challenges facing the country,
notably poverty, unemployment and the budget deficit, Muasher
promised that the National Agenda would avoid empty slogans
and rhetoric, and instead produce practical recommendations
and clear objectives designed to improve the lives of all
Jordanians. The committee would also identify methods and a
time frame for implementation of its proposals, along with a
cost estimate. For example, Muasher said a preliminary
recommendation to provide health insurance for all citizens
in six years would include a timetable for adding
beneficiaries to the insurance system each year -- and the
resulting funds needed -- until the plan was complete. Once
the National Agenda is finalized in September and then
endorsed, Muasher pledged that each ministry would be held
accountable to a detailed "action plan" and regularly report
on progress in implementing its directives.


3. (U) Muasher previewed a few recommendations already
reached by the committee through discussions with outside
experts and the reports of thematic sub-committees and
working groups. On the economic front, he said the committee
would recommend less reliance on imported oil by increasing
use of natural gas and exploring the prospects of shale oil
in Jordan. He was more general on political issues, stating
that overall "principles" had been drawn that would help
strengthen public and press freedoms, improve the status of
women, promote an independent judiciary, and encourage
political pluralism. Responding to public beliefs that
reforms were being imposed from outside Jordan (i.e., the
U.S.) to prepare for an influx of Palestinians (ref A),
Muasher reiterated that the National Agenda was an entirely
national product devoid of foreign dictates, and that it was
not intended to "dismantle (Jordan),or part of a plan for
settlement" of Palestinian refugees.


4. (C) In another PR effort to promote the National Agenda,
Muasher addressed a meeting of the Orthodox Club in Amman (a
prominent private social club) on June 27 to discuss reform
and the lifting of oil subsidies (septel). Contacts present
at this meeting commented that Muasher was confronted with a
number of difficult questions by a skeptical audience. Some
complaints focused on the committee's mostly closed-door
deliberations, with one audience member asking how the
National Agenda would reflect "a national consensus" as
promised by the government when the public was excluded from
discussions. Muasher reportedly kept his composure very well
and engaged in a lively debate on the necessity of change in
Jordan. He emphasized that the National Agenda would not be
laid aside by future governments as King Abdullah himself
would guarantee its application by successive cabinets.

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INTERNAL DEBATE
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5. (C) Both the press and Embassy contacts have reported
that there is considerable debate within the National Agenda
committee on sensitive political topics, particularly a new
elections law. In a meeting with poloff on June 29, Senator
and committee member Ousama Melkawi confirmed that there is
currently a sharp disagreement on the outlines of a new
electoral system. Specifically, within the sub-committee
charged with examining this and other political topics (of
which Melkawi is a member),opinions ranged from a purely
proportional representation system that abandons individual
districting, to a proposal favored by Melkawi that would
increase the number of current districts by more than
twofold. Melkawi said this divergence was "only natural" as
the sub-committee contained conservatives (including
himself),liberals such as Center for Strategic Studies
Director Mustafa Hamarneh, and Islamic Action Front (IAF)
leader Abdul Latif Arabiyat. When asked what would happen if
no consensus could be reached, Melkawi speculated that a
"majority vote" might be used to break an impasse. He also
rejected the idea of public hearings or open committee
meetings, saying this would be "too chaotic" and that the
diverse committee members adequately reflected differing
public viewpoints.


6. (U) The IAF is apparently not waiting for the release of
the National Agenda to trumpet its position on elections. In
a public statement released to the press on June 28, the IAF
strongly denounced the current one-person, one-vote system of
individual electoral districts. Instead, it advocated that
each citizen be able to choose multiple candidates from a
nationwide list, arguing that an MP should "represent the
nation, and not only one group of people." The retention of
a one-person, one-vote system, the IAF declared, would
indicate that the government was not serious about genuine
political reform.

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A COMPETING VISION
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7. (U) Similar to an IAF document laying out its vision for
comprehensive reform (ref B),the leaders of 15 political
parties loosely grouped together in the "Opposition Parties
Higher Coordination Committee" released a memo on June 19
outlining their reform priorities. Among its provisions, the
memo called for an end to the executive authority's
"transgression on the Constitution by issuing (provisional)
laws when Parliament was in recess or not convened." The
Coordination Committee (dominated by the IAF) further
proposed scrapping current "restrictive" laws on elections,
political parties and public gatherings, and the abolishment
of the Senate to create a unicameral parliament. On the
economy, the memo -- heavy on criticism, short on details --
argued for halting the privatization of natural resources
(specifically mentioning potash and phosphates),overhauling
the tax system, and severing all economic (and political)
links with Israel. After briefly meeting with these party
leaders, PM Badran reiterated his commitment to political
pluralism and respect for opposing views "as long as they
abide by the Constitution and look after national interests."


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COMMENT
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8. (C) Muasher's public appearances to promote the National
Agenda reflect growing awareness in the cabinet and the
palace of public misgivings about the reform process (ref A).
While the 26-member National Agenda committee contains a
good cross-section of private and public Jordanians covering
the political spectrum (which has contributed to at times
heated debate among members),the fact that its meetings
(currently held about once a week),as well as the
proceedings of expert working groups and sub-committees, are
closed to the public has helped fuel conspiracy theories that
are slowly gaining traction. The GOJ will need to counter
these negative perceptions with increased PR efforts to
dispel rumors and sell the benefits of reform. Greater
transparency related to the National Agenda, including the
King's recent pledge to MPs that committee members would
shortly hold direct talks with them, will also aid in swaying
public opinion.
HALE