THE KING PLAYS HIS HAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004652

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL ECON JO
SUBJECT: THE KING PLAYS HIS HAND

REF: AMMAN 4368

Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a series of meetings and remarks reported
prominently in the Jordanian media, King Abdullah confirmed
this week that the government will seek a vote of confidence
for Badran's government during an extraordinary session of
parliament to be convened at the end of June or beginning of
July. He also addressed the persistent fears of East Bankers
about the direction of his reform program by promising "no
settlement" of Palestinians not currently holding Jordanian
citizenship and by putting off any changes to the Jordanian
constitution that would threaten the political ascendancy of
Jordan's East Bank population. Reaction to the King's
remarks was publicly positive, with many observers and
commentators predicting the beginning of the end of the
present Cabinet-parliament stalemate. Despite a subsequent
vow by oppositionist MPs to hold fast to their demands,
contacts widely believe the GOJ will secure the vote of
confidence, but not without incurring significant costs. The
King anticipates resolving the crisis by adding three
southerners to the cabinet while leaving all other
appointments unchanged. End Summary.

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KING CONFIRMS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE COMING SOON
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2. (U) During an extensive joint interview with local
Arabic-language dailies al-Dustour and al-Arab al-Youm on
June 4, King Abdullah confirmed that the government will seek
a vote of confidence for embattled PM Badran and his cabinet
during an extraordinary session of parliament in the coming
weeks (reftel). Emphasizing that contacts with key MPs are
underway to resolve the matter, the King said: "I am in
contact with senior officials to look into the possibility of
an early request for a vote of confidence during this month
or early next month," adding that "this will be clear within
the next 10 days." According to the King: "After that, we
will keep an eye on the performance of the ministerial
economic team for evaluation. If they do not do their job in
the following six months, they will be held accountable for
that."

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KING ALSO TRIES TO TAMP DOWN EAST BANKERS' FEARS
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3. (C) During the interview, the King addressed the ongoing
controversy that erupted after former Minister of Information
Technology and Communications Fawaz Zoubi (a poster child for
private sector-led reform, and inevitably, of West Bank
origin) published a lengthy analysis of the reform process
that has further inflamed East-West Bank sensitivities,
already on a slow boil given East Bankers' unhappiness with
the Badran cabinet's perceived Palestinian-heavy composition.
In a thinly veiled response to the flurry of political
commentary responding to Zoubi's article, the King tried to
reassure his nervous East Bank loyalist base that the reform
process will not politically empower Jordanians of
Palestinian origin. He said that amending the Constitution
is a "red line" that cannot be crossed, adding that
"rejecting resettlement (tawteen) of (Palestinian refugees in
Jordan) is firm and will not change."


4. (U) The King's remarks closely mirror those he made just
days after a private, but widely reported meeting with
members of the Jordanian Senate in which the King is said to
have weighed in heavily on what are considered East Bankers'
core concerns: no to "settlement" of those Palestinian in the
country not currently carrying Jordanian citizenship; and
declaring a "red line" preventing any alteration to the
Jordanian Constitution (and its enshrinement on the current
political system that preserves East Bank prerogatives
despite a Palestinian-heavy population).

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COMMENTS WELL RECEIVED, BUT MPS STAND THEIR GROUND
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5. (U) The King's comments were hailed in the official
press by political leaders of every stripe as "wise" and
"reassuring." The line-up of endorsements included one from
Islamic Action Front Secretary General Hamza Mansour.
Meanwhile, the 48 members of parliament who have pledged to
withhold their votes from any motion of confidence in the
current cabinet, while expressing their loyalty to the King
and their support for reform, reiterated their no-compromise
position during a meeting on June 5. They remain
dissatisfied with the lack of consultation before the cabinet
was formed, the dearth of Cabinet members from the south, and
the composition of the economic team, which, according to the
MPs, "have no interaction or contact with the concerns of the
Jordanian people, in addition to their ignorance of the
reality of those people." Even so, a few oppositionist MPs
tried to take a conciliatory stand. MP Abdallah al-Jazi (one
of the signatories from the southern Badia) commented to
al-Ghad daily: "His Majesty's words about the need to find
common grounds with this or any other government is for the
public interest and the interest of the homeland." According
to al-Jazi, the King's statements "were read thoroughly," and
"they contributed to curbing rather than intensifying tension
between the executive and legislative authorities.... His
Majesty was clear in emphasizing that there will be no
constitutional amendment and that there are no plans to
settle Palestinians in Jordan."

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VOTE OF CONFIDENCE EXPECTED, BUT NOT WITHOUT A COST
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6. (C) However, a number of East Bank commentators have
predicted the King's intervention will ultimately prove
decisive in bringing about the "beginning of the end" of the
current stand-off. Prominent East Bank weekly Shihan went so
far as to declare in a front-page headline: "End of the
Crisis." A senator and prominent columnist who was present
at the King's meeting with senators told IO that a likely
scenario would include PM Badran carrying out a limited
Cabinet reshuffle immediately prior to the convening of an
extraordinary session, during which he would bring on three
East Bank ministers representing the southern governorates,
thereby satisfying one of the stated demands of the "no
confidence" bloc. No ministers among the "economic team"
would be touched at this point. This initial half-measure,
combined with the King's reassurances regarding East Bankers'
political prerogatives, would, he predicted, solve the
problem for now. (The King has said to Charge that he was
thinking of resolving the crisis along these lines.)


7. (C) While many contacts believe that the government will
eventually come out on top with a vote of confidence, they
add that the fray has strengthened parliament at the expense
of Badran's government. One contact commented to poloff that
the King made a mistake by announcing that the economic
team's performance would be evaluated in six months, saying
that such a short time frame is unrealistic given that
economic reform demands patience and time. By setting such a
deadline, the King has set the team up for more severe
oppositionist attacks which will only be exacerbated by the
intense debate most observers expect over fuel price
increases, which on June 7 the cabinet committed to begin
this year, starting with elimination of JD 120 million in
various subsidies. As a result of the "no confidence" bloc's
tenacity (and the fact that their gripe over the lack of
consultation resonates with wide segments of the population),
parliament has succeeded in ensuring that the King will
consult with parliament before naming future cabinets, one
contact told poloff. Many expect the Badran government to be
short lived no matter what compromise is reached -- the
damage is done. Indeed, one contact involved in the
government's public sector reform initiative told IO that the
Prime Minister now laces his conduct of weekly cabinet
meetings with black humor about his dim prospects for a
lengthy tenure.

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HALE