IRAQIS IN JORDAN: WELL-INTEGRATED, ECONOMICALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003963

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2015
TAGS: PREL ECON CPAS IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN: WELL-INTEGRATED, ECONOMICALLY
IMPORTANT, POLITICALLY WARY

Classified By: DAVID HALE, CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I., REASONS: 1.4 (B &D)

Summary
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1. (C) This cable provides an overview of the Iraqi
community in Jordan based on information obtained from
Jordanian and Iraqi government, UN, NGO, and Iraqi and
Jordanian business and academic figures. Approximately
350,000 Iraqi nationals are presently living in Jordan,
mostly in the greater Amman area. The majority of these
Iraqis are not new to Jordan, and at least half are
non-Sunni. Most have lower-middle class incomes or lower.
There is potential for friction with Jordanians, but most
locals welcome or at least tolerate the Iraqi community, not
least because of the significant new investment and business
stimulation their presence has brought. While eager to
develop commercial opportunities, most resident Iraqis are
politically passive; in contrast, there is a significant
amount of political activity carried out here by Iraqi
visitors and transients. End Summary.

Iraqis in Jordan: Number and Make-up
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2. (SBU) While unofficial estimates of the number of Iraqis
in Jordan vary from 50,000 to more than 500,000, most
interlocutors agreed that the official Jordanian government
estimate of 350,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan is fairly
accurate. This total does not reflect the large number of
well-off Iraqis (more than 100,000, according to the Iraqi
Embassy) who "shuttle" regularly between the two countries,
frequently staying with relatives, some of whom they have
placed in Jordan due to the continuing security problems in
Iraq. According to the Jordanian government, over half of
the official number (about 200,000) of Iraqi nationals
resident in Jordan arrived before the Gulf War of 1991. In
addition to political refugees of various kinds, this number
includes a large number of undocumented laborers and factory
workers who may arguably be classified as economic migrants.
The Jordanian government claims that approximately 120,000
Iraqis have taken up de facto residence here since 2001.
While there are no official statistics, most interlocutors
(including an Iraqi who has worked extensively with
unemployed Iraqi laborers here) estimated that over 50
percent of the Iraqis present in Jordan are Sh,ia.


3. (SBU) Only about 12,000 Iraqis in Jordan have Jordanian
residence or work permits, many of them doctors, teachers,
and other professionals working in state-supported
institutions. This figure suggests that the majority of
Iraqis present here are either not legal residents, own their
own businesses, or are simply not working. However, the
situation is complicated by the lack of reliable statistics,
many years of fluid border controls, and effective disregard
by many Jordanian authorities and employers (as well as
Iraqis) of legal regulations. The Jordanian official
responsible for population statistics placed the total number
of Iraqi legal permanent residents in Jordan at approximately
60,000.


4. (SBU) There are 20,000-30,000 wealthy and well-to-do
Iraqis who maintain homes here, some occupied only
intermittently. Wealthy Iraqis maintain a high profile in
Amman's swank Abdoun neighborhood and are the chief market
for at least one local "high-society" newspaper. A prominent
banker told us that up to 100,000 Iraqis maintain bank
accounts of $2,000 or more in Jordan (though many of these
may be only part-time residents of Jordan); a well-connected
Iraqi businessman and long-time Amman resident estimated the
current number of Jordan-based Iraqi business managers and
entrepreneurs at over 1,500.

Economic Activities
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5. (SBU) According to a recent German-funded study, up to
65% of Iraqi residents in Jordan are financially needy and
place a strain on Jordan's already limited housing, energy,
and water resources. The study found that many of these
Iraqis are working illegally for low wages, while others are
simply unemployed. Although many of the latter claim they
wish to return to Iraq, they are unable to pay Jordanian
fines (about two dollars for each "illegal" day in Jordan)
for staying without authorization, and claim to fear
imprisonment in Jordan should they attempt to re-cross the
border (Note: We have seen no evidence that any Iraqis have
been imprisoned for this. End Note). The study also noted
that the majority of Iraqi migrs, including those who are
unemployed, are well-skilled and willing to work for lower
wages than many of their Jordanian counterparts. This has
posed a problem for local Jordanians who are not as highly
trained but vying for the same technical positions,
particularly in fields such as teaching and medicine. This
problem first became apparent in the late 1990,s when there
were some vociferous protests from unemployed Jordanian PHD's
over Iraqi university professors teaching in Jordan.


6. (SBU) Despite occasional frictions arising from such
pressures, most Jordanians appear to welcome the rising
presence of Iraqis here as an economic and commercial boon.
Iraqis have a reputation among Jordanian merchants as great
customers who pay in cash and rarely haggle. Meanwhile,
Iraqi investors continue to pump money into Jordan's economy,
particularly in private businesses and real estate. In 2004
Iraqi investment in Jordan totaled nearly $400 million, while
Iraqis made over 55% of Jordanian real estate purchases.
Additional Iraqi money is being put into Jordanian companies
through partnerships, subsidiaries/branches of companies
owned in Iraq, and new business initiatives. The number of
small to medium sized companies in Jordan has also grown due
to Iraqi investment and (possibly temporary) relocation of
Iraqi business activity from Iraq to Jordan. A recent
Jordanian study estimates that at least $2 billion in Iraqi
funds has migrated to Jordan since 2001.


7. (SBU) In an effort to further encourage this inflow, the
GOJ has begun offering a special "Investor Passport" for a
large fee to wealthy Iraqis as part of a package that will
entitle them to equal treatment with domestic investors as
well as the right to residence. At King Abdullah,s urging,
a select group of about 15 wealthy Iraqi residents (including
reputed billionaires Talal al-Gaaoud and Mohammed al-Bunnia)
has formed a committee to develop large-scale joint ventures
designed to benefit the economies of both countries and
deepen commercial integration.

Political Activities
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8. (SBU) While eager to talk about Iraq, most Iraqi migrs
remain confused about the evolving political situation there
and are very hesitant to get involved with politics. There
are few signs of significant Iraqi political organization or
other activity here; rallies rarely take place either for or
against the coalition or the Iraqi government.
Out-of-country voter turnout for the January, 2005 Iraq
elections in Jordan was 20,000, only about a fifth of total
potential voters. Most of those who did vote supported the
so-called "Sistani list," and were presumably Sh,ia. Most
Iraqis here have never been politically engaged in either
Iraq or Jordan and quietism is their default position. One
very wealthy Iraqi businessman pointed to political risk
aversion as a virtue that had helped his company and family
thrive. At the same time, many Iraqis here expressed great
pride in the wake of the elections (whether they voted or
not),and readily articulate the hope that a better Iraq is
emerging.


9. (C) A handful of Sunni tribal leaders and
Western-educated business figures living in Amman are the
exception to their compatriot's political passivity. Some
maintain an idealistic or nationalistic preoccupation with
politics in Iraq. Some may even harbor personal political
ambitions, or seek political support for their business
activities. Our observation is that this group has steadily
drifted away from rejection and denial of developments in
Iraq towards acceptance that the page has turned. They are
largely pursuing these ambitions through discussion and
political engagement with visiting Iraqis and Iraqis in Iraq.
Examples include Talal and Jalal al-Gaaod from Anbar and
wealthy Iraqi Shi'ite businessman Ali Khawwam, whose family
is a reputed funding source for SCIRI and Dawa, and who
frequently "hosts" visiting senior Iraqi officals at the
Amman Four Seasons hotel.

Ba'athist Presence - Low and Mainly Quiescent
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10. (C) The number of ex-Ba,athis (including family
members) living in Jordan is estimated by most interlocutors
at about 20,000. Many of these have lived in Jordan for many
years and were not directly associated with military or
political activities in Iraq. Although many remain critics
of the U.S.-led coalition, most keep a low profile and appear
to be as politically passive as other Iraqis here. Few
figure in migr gossip, despite the fact that the
&anti-Ba,athist8 Iraqi community here is much larger.
Saddam's three daughters Rana, Hala, and Ragad Hussein have
political asylum here (as did some of Saddam,s opponents in
the past),but keep a low profile at Palace instruction and
are heavily monitored by the security services, as is the
pro-Saddam Islamist figure Abdul Latif Humayam. Prominent
Ba'athist figures such as Mohammed Izzat al-Duri and Yunis
al-Ahmad live in Syria and do not come to Jordan, but may
occasionally send representatives here.

A Hub for Visiting Activists
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11. (C) In contrast to the political inactivity of most
Iraqi residents of Jordan, Iraqi visitors and transients
carry on substantial Iraqi political activity here, using
Jordan as a low-profile business, banking, fund-raising, and
meeting center. Most but not all of these politically active
visitors are Sunni Arabs. The following is a representative
breakdown of regular visitors pursuing Iraqi politics while
in Jordan (all Sunni Arabs except the last entry):

Tribal Leaders - Sheik Majid Ali al-Suliman (Dulaimy); Sheik
Omer al-Suliman (Dulaimy); Sheikh Dari Ma'shan al-Faisal
al-Jarba (Shammar-Mosul); Sheikh Fahim Afoun al-Mafarji
(Yousifiyeh - Ba'athist ties); Sheikh Ghazi Hanash al-Taei
(Mosul - generally sends his son).

Islamists - Osamah Tikriti; Thamir al-Sultan; Muthara Harith
al Dhari; Fakhri al-Qaisi (Salafi); Sheikh Ahmed al-Kubaisi
(Dubai resident); Taglieb al-Alosi (from Fallujah - now
working in Dubai with Sheikh Ahmed); Qasiem al-Jumaili.
Al-Qaisi and al-Jumaili were and may still be insurgency
sympathizers. Al-Dhari and al-Sultan support the Muslim
Scholars group.

"Nationalist" - Sheikh Wathab al-Dulaimy; Mowafik al-Hadithi;
Ra'ad al-Hamdani; Dr. Husein al-Jumaili. Hamdani is an
ex-Lt. General - both he and Jumaili are seen as moderates.

Neo-Ba'athist (Ba'athists against Saddam)- Mudher Khorbit;
Samir Shaikli; Issam al-Rawi; Abdul Razzak al-Khorbit. The
two Khorbits live in Syria but occasionally visit Jordan.

Democratic/Secular - Ra'ad al-Mukhlis; Hatem al-Mukhlis;
Jabar al Kubaisi.

"Flexible/Opportunists" - Sa'ad Bazaz; Dr. Mejbel Sheik Isa.
Bazaz is Iraq's media tycoon.
Shi'ites - Iyad Allawi and his brother (private visits);
Khabeim al-Ghazi; Mowaffak al-Rubaie; Sheikh Fatih Kashif al
Gitta (Sistani advisor); Abdul Amir al-Zahid Saleh (Jaffari
advisor); Ala'a Traej (SCIRI figure).

Comment
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11. The Iraqi population living in Jordan is well-established
and has been here longer than many assume. While the
&shuttle8 population moving between Iraq and Jordan is
large, we have not seen evidence of a mass exodus of Iraqis
heading here. Nonetheless Iraqis in Jordan are having a
major economic impact, the implications of which are largely
positive for Jordan and could be for Iraq as well if guided
into the right channels.


12. Baghdad minimize considered.
HALE