MERC "Red-Dead" Project Promotes Scientific Engagement

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002055

SIPDIS

STATE FOR OES/PCI/Ellen Shaw
STATE ALSO FOR NEA/ELA and NEA/RA/Lawson
STATE PASS USAID/EGAT/MERC/David O'Brien
INTERIOR FOR International/Washburne and BuRec
INTERIOR FOR USGS/International
COMMERCE FOR NOAA/International/Ware-Harris

SENSITIVE

TAGS: SENV EAID TPHY PREL IS JO
SUBJECT: MERC "Red-Dead" Project Promotes Scientific Engagement
on Controversial Project

Ref: Amman 1945 (notal)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A USAID Middle East Regional Cooperation
(MERC)-funded project on the proposed multi-billion dollar "Red-
Dead" project to bring Red Sea water to the Dead Sea is expanding
scientific and governmental cooperation between Israel and
Jordan. There are no conclusions yet on the impacts of the
project, and the USG remains neutral. The Jordanian Government
continues to promote the proposals, most recently during the
visit of Foreign Minister al-Mulki March 5-6 to Israel. However,
the economic case for spending billions on the project has yet to
be made. End summary.

Background: Red Sea Water for Desalination, Save Dead Sea
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2. (SBU) The notional "Red-Dead" project, strongly supported by
the GOJ, would transfer water from the Gulf of Aqaba (part of the
Red Sea) through a canal or pipeline to a hydropower plant and
onward to a massive desalination plant 1,200 feet below sea level
near the Dead Sea. The GOJ hopes for financial support coming
from outside grants or concessional financing. The brine from
the desalination plant, plus water directly from the Gulf of
Aqaba, would be put into the Dead Sea to reverse its annual one-
meter drop. The project has languished for eighteen months while
Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority negotiate terms of
reference for a feasibility study.

NGO Coordinating Background Study on Red-Dead
-------------- -

3. (SBU) The USAID-funded MERC project on the Red-Dead is
organized by Friends of the Earth Middle East (FOEME),which
convened a meeting at the Dead Sea on February 28 to review
progress. The MERC Red-Dead project has been gradually expanding
its reach into the scientific and governmental communities in
Jordan and Israel as participants grapple with the complexities
of the enormous infrastructure project. FOEME, the Geological
Survey of Israel and the Jordanian Royal Scientific Society are
the principal participants.

Jordanian Government Still Eager
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4. (SBU) During his March 6 visit to Israel, Jordanian Foreign
Minister Hani Al-Mulki raised the Red-Dead project in his
discussions with top Israeli officials. According to press
reports, Al-Mulki and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres agreed
to continue studying the project. No detailed agreements were
announced. Israeli MFA contacts told Tel Aviv ESTHOff that there
has been no change in the Israeli position on the Terms of
Reference (TOR) dispute. The Jordanian MFA reports there has
been no formal agreement. .

No Answers Yet; USG Remains Neutral on Outcome
-------------- -

5. (SBU) MERC project participants are still in the early stages
of planning research, deciding what questions to ask, collecting
information and assembling the tools needed to analyze the
complex scientific, ecological and socio-economic impacts of the
proposed project. It will be at least a year before any results
of their study are available. Amman and Tel Aviv ESTHOffs have
attended FOEME's Red-Dead project reviews and have encouraged the
process of Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian engagement to discuss
the impacts of Red-Dead but ESTHOffs have maintained the USG's
neutrality on the advisability of Red-Dead itself.

Ministry Ties Expanding
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6. (SBU) In a new development in the MERC project, Suhail
Wahsheh, Advisor to the Secretary General of the Jordan Valley
Authority within the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI),
attended the February 28 MERC Red-Dead project review meeting.
Wahsheh's involvement in the MERC project will boost the effort's
impact by giving it a connection with official Red-Dead planning
at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation. The Royal Scientific
Society, Jordan's lead partner in the Red-Dead MERC project, is a
respected but bureaucratically weak quasi-governmental
organization that lacks direct input into policy channels. The
Ministry's participation in the MERC project will help put the
eventual conclusions of the MERC project into Jordan's
governmental planning process for Red-Dead.

Project Producing Permanent Gains in Tools, Information
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7. (SBU) A welcome outcome from the project is the production of
tools and information that will make a lasting contribution to
scientific knowledge. Specifically because of the MERC project,
the Geological Survey of Israel is developing computer maps of
the Dead Sea and Wadi Araba/Arava Valley that integrate data from
satellite images, air photos, tectonic maps, maps of wells and
water resources, bathymetry and radar images. These
sophisticated products will be useful for many other projects in
the area. Similarly, the Royal Scientific Society has begun
collecting marine data for the Gulf of Aqaba and socio-economic
data on Wadi Araba that will be a resource in the future, as well
as being a crucial component for the Red-Dead decision-making
process. The Geological Survey of Israel is also developing
computer models from the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) that push
the boundaries of knowledge with respect to chemical interactions
in saline water.

Informal Interactions Increasing
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8. (SBU) Even more welcome are the increasingly open back-channel
exchanges between the participants that go beyond the Red-Dead
project. For example, at the February 28 meeting, the Israeli
side spent some time over lunch talking about the results of
their multi-year study on sinkholes near the Dead Sea. Sinkholes
are a phenomenon attributed to the declining water level in the
Dead Sea but are not specifically addressed in the MERC Red-Dead
project. The Israeli representatives at the Red-Dead meeting
offered to share their findings on the sinkholes with Jordan, a
notable act of collegiality. The Israelis invested years and
millions of dollars in the study. The results could be easily
utilized by Jordan to do hazard mapping and save millions of
dollars in infrastructure losses.

Good Science Critical to Multi-Billion Dollar Project
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9. (SBU) Looking narrowly at the scientific aspects, the MERC Red-
Dead project represents an important step forward in advancing
scientific knowledge on the Red-Dead that will be crucial to the
expensive decisions to follow. The stakes are high. The Dead
Sea is a focal point in both Jordan and Israel for two major
industries, chemicals and tourism, that create thousands of jobs
and bring in billions of dollars.

But Good Economics Must Also Play A Key Role
--------------

10. (SBU) Although there may be political and scientific benefits
to the MERC project, the economics of the Red-Dead project itself
must be demonstrated before any final go-ahead is granted. The
feasibility study, if the partners ever agree to its Terms of
Reference, will help determine whether billions would best be
spent on Red-Dead or on other projects which might better address
the water and power needs of the region.

HALE