Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY4345
2005-12-08 21:53:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:
KAZAKHSTAN: EXIT POLL RESULTS VARY WIDELY, BUT
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS ALMATY 004345
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: EXIT POLL RESULTS VARY WIDELY, BUT
CONFIRM VICTORY
UNCLAS ALMATY 004345
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: EXIT POLL RESULTS VARY WIDELY, BUT
CONFIRM VICTORY
1. (SBU) Summary: At least six exit polls were conducted
during Kazakhstan's presidential elections. The results of
the exit polls ranged widely. On the high end, the Center
for Political Technologies gave Nazarbayev 87.4% of the
vote, while on the low end, the Kazakhstan Institute of
Social-Economic Information and Forecasting concluded that
Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote. On December 6, the
Central Elections Committee announced the official results
of the elections, affirming that 91.15% voted to re-elect
President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The leading opposition
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay finished a distant second
with 6.61% of the vote, according to the CEC. Post finds
the discrepancy between the exit poll numbers and the CEC's
final tally problematic, and is waiting for the CEC to
publish the voting results.
--------------
The Main Pollsters
--------------
2. (U) The results of an exit poll commissioned by the
International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that 83.2%
voted to re-elect President Nazarbayev. Tuyakbay came in
second receiving 9.9%. The exit poll was conducted
nationwide by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys.
Bilingual interviewers surveyed 23,780 voters at 283 polling
stations in all 14 oblasts, Astana, and Almaty. The margin
of error was +/- one percent. Baltic Surveys is the
Lithuania-based office of the Gallup Organization.
3. (U) The Association of Sociologists and Political
Scholars of Kazakhstan (ASIP) announced that 86.9% voted to
re-elect President Nazarbayev. The main opposition
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, finished second with 8.4% of
the vote. ASIP interviewed 333,392 voters at 313 election
precincts in all 14 oblasts, Astana, Almaty, and
Semiplatinsk. More than 26% of people approached refused to
give an answer.
4. (SBU) The ASIP poll was financially supported by Astana
TV Company, which is reportedly owned by presidential son-in-
law Timur Kulibayev, and several other unspecified regional
organizations, according to ASIP's chair Bakhtyzhamal
Bekturganova. The support was relatively modest, said
Bekturganova.
--------------
Secondary Groups
--------------
5. (U) According to an exit poll conducted by the Kazakhstan
Institute of Social-Economic Information and Forecasting
(KISCIP),Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote, while 13.4%
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay. The exit poll
was conducted in eight regions, Astana, and Almaty.
Interviewers surveyed 16,000 people at 400 polling stations.
More than a third refused to answer the questionnaire.
6. (SBU) The KISCIP exit poll was financed by the
International Institute of Modern Politics, headed by first
daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva. Sabit Zhusupov, director of
KISCIP, stated confidently that his poll results were
correct and could not explain the higher results announced
by the CEC. Zhusupov is a respected academic who, according
to our contacts, usually works for whoever will pay the
bills.
7. (U) KazRATING, which conducted its exit poll only in
Almaty, reported 78.3% voted to re-elect Nazarbayev and 14%
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay. Kazrating
interviewed 4,877 people at 122 polling stations. The
margin of error was 1.5%.
8. (SBU) It is unclear who funded KazRATING's exit poll.
Erlan Karin, the head of KazRATING, is a respected political
scientist and may have ties to the government, according to
two local political watchers. Karin is a former deputy
chairman of the Asar Party, but quit the party in late 2004
for unspecified reasons. KazRATING conducted several polls
ahead of the elections to gauge public opinion about the
presidential candidates. In their final poll conducted on
November 20 in Almaty, 76.3% of respondents said they would
vote for Nazarbayev. (Comment: Given that the opposition
is strongest in Almaty, it is not surprising that a poll
conducted only in the `southern capital' would produce the
lowest result for Nazarbayev. End comment.)
9. (U) The Center for Political Technologies (CPT),a Moscow-
based think-tank and consulting firm, gave Nazarbayev 87.4%
of the vote and Tuyakbay 8.5%, according to their exit poll.
CPT surveyed 29,000 voters in 290 precincts. The CPT was
founded in 1991 and is headed by Dr. Igor Bunin. The CPT
runs the website www.politcom.ru and reportedly has a
diverse client base, including the Russian government and
business.
--------------
An Unknown
--------------
10. (U) A lesser-known organization called the Eurasian
Rating Agency claimed that Nazarbayev received 84.5% of the
vote, while opposition candidate Tuyakbay came in second
with 9.6%. Their exit poll was conducted in all the
regional capitals, Almaty, Astana, and Semiplatinsk. A
total of 12,000 voters at 68 polling stations were
interviewed.
11. (SBU) It is unclear who funded Eurasian Rating Agency's
exit poll, but according to Interfax, the group was working
with Channel 31, a media outlet reportedly controlled by
National Security Council Secretary Bolat Utemuratov, to
conduct the poll.
--------------
Comment
--------------
12. (SBU) Comment: The result of this election was never in
doubt. The USAID-financed poll that IRI carried out in
September before the campaign began had predicted 86% vote
for Nazarbayev. At the time, we dismissed this as totally
unrealistic even as the Gallup organization representative
that had supervised the poll strenuously defended the
result. Our expectation was a maximum of 80% for
Nazarbayev, and our sources in the Presidential
Administration had told us their internal polls consistently
produced a 70-75% vote for the incumbent. The exit polls
clearly confirm that Nazarbayev won the election by an
overwhelming and completely unpredicted margin. Even the
most carefully designed and executed exit polls can have
significant errors. The 2004 U.S. exit polls predicted a
Kerry victory by 3%, while in fact President Bush won the
popular vote by 2.5% -- a total error of 5.5%. IRI's Gallup-
managed poll had a difference of almost 8%.
13. (SBU) Comment, continued: While there is no evidence at
this point of systematic or widespread rigging of election
results, one very plausible explanation for the gap includes
fraud. Even if not centrally directed, this casts doubt on
the effectiveness, if not the sincerity, of the GOK's
promise to ensure clean elections. Moreover, the lower the
reported vote totals for the opposition, the less likely
they are to reconcile themselves to the results (and to
participate in the political process). In addition, the
lower numbers may also reduce their influence on the
political scene, both with the general public and among
political elites. The release of precinct-by-precinct
results, which is getting underway on December 8, is
expected to shed light on the tabulation question. IRI is
already planning to analyze their exit poll data on a
precinct-level basis. End comment.
ORDWAY
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: EXIT POLL RESULTS VARY WIDELY, BUT
CONFIRM VICTORY
1. (SBU) Summary: At least six exit polls were conducted
during Kazakhstan's presidential elections. The results of
the exit polls ranged widely. On the high end, the Center
for Political Technologies gave Nazarbayev 87.4% of the
vote, while on the low end, the Kazakhstan Institute of
Social-Economic Information and Forecasting concluded that
Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote. On December 6, the
Central Elections Committee announced the official results
of the elections, affirming that 91.15% voted to re-elect
President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The leading opposition
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay finished a distant second
with 6.61% of the vote, according to the CEC. Post finds
the discrepancy between the exit poll numbers and the CEC's
final tally problematic, and is waiting for the CEC to
publish the voting results.
--------------
The Main Pollsters
--------------
2. (U) The results of an exit poll commissioned by the
International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that 83.2%
voted to re-elect President Nazarbayev. Tuyakbay came in
second receiving 9.9%. The exit poll was conducted
nationwide by the Gallup Organization/Baltic Surveys.
Bilingual interviewers surveyed 23,780 voters at 283 polling
stations in all 14 oblasts, Astana, and Almaty. The margin
of error was +/- one percent. Baltic Surveys is the
Lithuania-based office of the Gallup Organization.
3. (U) The Association of Sociologists and Political
Scholars of Kazakhstan (ASIP) announced that 86.9% voted to
re-elect President Nazarbayev. The main opposition
candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, finished second with 8.4% of
the vote. ASIP interviewed 333,392 voters at 313 election
precincts in all 14 oblasts, Astana, Almaty, and
Semiplatinsk. More than 26% of people approached refused to
give an answer.
4. (SBU) The ASIP poll was financially supported by Astana
TV Company, which is reportedly owned by presidential son-in-
law Timur Kulibayev, and several other unspecified regional
organizations, according to ASIP's chair Bakhtyzhamal
Bekturganova. The support was relatively modest, said
Bekturganova.
--------------
Secondary Groups
--------------
5. (U) According to an exit poll conducted by the Kazakhstan
Institute of Social-Economic Information and Forecasting
(KISCIP),Nazarbayev received 77.6% of the vote, while 13.4%
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay. The exit poll
was conducted in eight regions, Astana, and Almaty.
Interviewers surveyed 16,000 people at 400 polling stations.
More than a third refused to answer the questionnaire.
6. (SBU) The KISCIP exit poll was financed by the
International Institute of Modern Politics, headed by first
daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva. Sabit Zhusupov, director of
KISCIP, stated confidently that his poll results were
correct and could not explain the higher results announced
by the CEC. Zhusupov is a respected academic who, according
to our contacts, usually works for whoever will pay the
bills.
7. (U) KazRATING, which conducted its exit poll only in
Almaty, reported 78.3% voted to re-elect Nazarbayev and 14%
voted for the opposition candidate Tuyakbay. Kazrating
interviewed 4,877 people at 122 polling stations. The
margin of error was 1.5%.
8. (SBU) It is unclear who funded KazRATING's exit poll.
Erlan Karin, the head of KazRATING, is a respected political
scientist and may have ties to the government, according to
two local political watchers. Karin is a former deputy
chairman of the Asar Party, but quit the party in late 2004
for unspecified reasons. KazRATING conducted several polls
ahead of the elections to gauge public opinion about the
presidential candidates. In their final poll conducted on
November 20 in Almaty, 76.3% of respondents said they would
vote for Nazarbayev. (Comment: Given that the opposition
is strongest in Almaty, it is not surprising that a poll
conducted only in the `southern capital' would produce the
lowest result for Nazarbayev. End comment.)
9. (U) The Center for Political Technologies (CPT),a Moscow-
based think-tank and consulting firm, gave Nazarbayev 87.4%
of the vote and Tuyakbay 8.5%, according to their exit poll.
CPT surveyed 29,000 voters in 290 precincts. The CPT was
founded in 1991 and is headed by Dr. Igor Bunin. The CPT
runs the website www.politcom.ru and reportedly has a
diverse client base, including the Russian government and
business.
--------------
An Unknown
--------------
10. (U) A lesser-known organization called the Eurasian
Rating Agency claimed that Nazarbayev received 84.5% of the
vote, while opposition candidate Tuyakbay came in second
with 9.6%. Their exit poll was conducted in all the
regional capitals, Almaty, Astana, and Semiplatinsk. A
total of 12,000 voters at 68 polling stations were
interviewed.
11. (SBU) It is unclear who funded Eurasian Rating Agency's
exit poll, but according to Interfax, the group was working
with Channel 31, a media outlet reportedly controlled by
National Security Council Secretary Bolat Utemuratov, to
conduct the poll.
--------------
Comment
--------------
12. (SBU) Comment: The result of this election was never in
doubt. The USAID-financed poll that IRI carried out in
September before the campaign began had predicted 86% vote
for Nazarbayev. At the time, we dismissed this as totally
unrealistic even as the Gallup organization representative
that had supervised the poll strenuously defended the
result. Our expectation was a maximum of 80% for
Nazarbayev, and our sources in the Presidential
Administration had told us their internal polls consistently
produced a 70-75% vote for the incumbent. The exit polls
clearly confirm that Nazarbayev won the election by an
overwhelming and completely unpredicted margin. Even the
most carefully designed and executed exit polls can have
significant errors. The 2004 U.S. exit polls predicted a
Kerry victory by 3%, while in fact President Bush won the
popular vote by 2.5% -- a total error of 5.5%. IRI's Gallup-
managed poll had a difference of almost 8%.
13. (SBU) Comment, continued: While there is no evidence at
this point of systematic or widespread rigging of election
results, one very plausible explanation for the gap includes
fraud. Even if not centrally directed, this casts doubt on
the effectiveness, if not the sincerity, of the GOK's
promise to ensure clean elections. Moreover, the lower the
reported vote totals for the opposition, the less likely
they are to reconcile themselves to the results (and to
participate in the political process). In addition, the
lower numbers may also reduce their influence on the
political scene, both with the general public and among
political elites. The release of precinct-by-precinct
results, which is getting underway on December 8, is
expected to shed light on the tabulation question. IRI is
already planning to analyze their exit poll data on a
precinct-level basis. End comment.
ORDWAY