KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,

UNCLAS ALMATY 004285

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - TEXT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,
DECEMBER 2

REF: Almaty 4171


1. (U) This is the eleventh and final in a series of
weekly election roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's
December 4, 2005 presidential elections. Items were drawn
primarily from the local press and media.

Candidates Wrap Up Election Campaigns
--------------


2. (U) On November 30, President Nursultan Nazarbayev
ended his election campaign with a bang. More than 5,000
people, looking relaxed and joyful, gathered at the Palace
for Sports in Astana to show their support for the
incumbent. Nazarbayev delivered a speech outlining the
future of Kazakhstan. "I see Kazakhstan among the 50 most
competitive countries of the world, where every family has
its own home, a car, and a business," he said.
Nazarbayev performed a duet with a well-known opera
singer, which elicited an enthusiastic applause from the
audience. Senate Chairman Nurtay Abykayev hailed the
president by whistling. Similar mass meetings in support
of Nazarbayev were held on the same day in every regional
center of Kazakhstan.


3. (U) Tuyakbay's final election campaign events in
Southern Kazakhstan Oblast and in Almaty occurred without
major incident. In some regions of Southern Kazakhstan
people allegedly recruited by local authorities tried to
disrupt Tuyakbay's meetings with the electorate by yelling
into microphones they brought and by insulting Tuyakbay.
The police reportedly did not intervene. Tuyakbay plans
to end his campaign in Kzylorda Oblast. "I have become
convinced that local authorities will try to falsify the
election because they understand that if I win, local
officials involved in preparing unfair election technology
will be out of work," Tuyakbay said.


4. (U) Alikhan Baymenov's campaign will wrap up with stops
in Taldykurgan, Astana, Arkalyk, and Zhezkazgan, his
hometown. At a briefing in Almaty on November 29,
Baymenov said, "During this election campaign I witnessed
those who call themselves democrats, using financial and
mass media resources, trying to turn the political
situation in the Qry into a race on vilifying each
other, because they understand they are not able to
compete in a fair competition." He added, "The majority
understand that if those who use democratic shields seize
power it would be a step back because it would lead to
chaos and the redistribution of property, and the
interests of ordinary people would be left on the
sidelines." Baymenov noted that he had held 60 meetings
in more than 40 settlements.


5. (U) On November 29, Yerasyl Abylkasymov visited
Karaganda Oblast. While in Karaganda, Abylkasymov said
his platform always found common ground with the
electorate and that his program was designed for people
who remembered and respected the communist past.
Abylkasymov added he would tirelessly fight against those
who impose Western values on our people. Abylkasymov
announced he would finish his election campaign in
Zhezkazgan on November 30.


6. (U) On November 30, Mels Yeleusizov met in Almaty with
independent observers from France and with OSCE
observation mission head Audrey Glover. During his
meeting with the French observers, Yeleusizov announced
his plan to establish the Green Party irrespective of the
election results. He also mentioned that the government
provided every candidate with equal access to mass media.


7. (U) On November 30, the election headquarters of
Baymenov, Tuyakbay and Abylkasymov issued joint statement
calling on the CEC to do away with the electronic voting
system. The e-voting system creates opportunities for
electoral law violations and fraud, the statement said.

President Warns Against Splits in Society
--------------


8. (U) On November 22, President Nazarbayev delivered a
speech at the Eleventh Assembly of the Peoples of
Kazakhstan, urging the passage legislation that would


prevent splits in society. A multiparty system should not
grow into an open confrontation like we are witnessing
now, Nazarbayev said. Splits in society hinder further
progress; this would be a dangerous development for our
statehood, warned the President.

President Orders Akims Not to Falsify Vote
--------------


9. (U) On November 23, according to presidential adviser
Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, President Nazarbayev ordered top
government officials in the regions to prevent
falsification of the election results. Nazarbayev met
with the akims to deliver this message personally.

CEC Pledges to Publish Results in 24 Hours
--------------


10. (SBU) On November 28, CEC Chairman Onalsyn Zhumabekov
told Ambassador Ordway that the CEC would publish
preliminary results of the vote within 24 hours after the
polls close. "Given the huge territory of our country and
long distances between our settlements, we have assumed a
difficult commitment to publish preliminary results of the
election within 24 hours after the end of the voting,"
Zhumabekov said. "In addition, we have pledged to publish
the results by precincts on our web site," Zhumabekov
pointed out. The CEC plans to announce the official
results within 10 days, by December 14. Representatives
of the press were present at the meeting and reported
Zhumabekov's commitment widely.


11. (U) In order to streamline the voting process, the CEC
issued resolutions on printing and delivering paper
ballots to precincts, on specifying IDs that voters would
have to present at voting stations, and on procedures on
the issuance of protocols at precincts where voting would
be done both by paper ballots and e-voting. According to
Zhumabekov, 15% of precincts would be equipped with the e-
voting system, which would allow 32% of voters to vote
electronically.


12. (U) The Sailau e-voting system still remains a major
point of controversy. On November 24, the public
integrity committee issued a positive assessment of the
Sailau e-voting system, claiming it was user-friendly and
secure. The opposition, however, is concerned that the e-
voting system is vulnerable to manipulation. The CEC
announced that the Sailau system would be put into
operation at 3:00 AM on December 4.

Legislation to Lift Ban on Rallies
--------------


13. (U) On November 28, Zhumabekov informed Ambassador
Ordway that amendments lifting the ban on rallies and
demonstrations during the period after the voting day and
before official announcement of the results had been
received by Parliament. Responding to a question whether
the amendments could be passed before December 4,
Zhumabekov said it was a constitutional law to be amended,
which would require at least two readings at a joint
session of both houses of Parliament. As of December 2
the legislation had not been approved.

Election Observers
--------------


14. (SBU) On November 28, the CEC accredited 163
representatives of foreign mass media. As of November 28,
1,590 foreign observers and journalists had been
accredited including, 201 foreign observers from 27
countries, 473 OSCE/BDIHR observers from 42 countries, 417
CIS observers, 107 observers from 8 international
organizations, and 392 representatives of foreign mass
media from 23 countries. The accreditation process ended
on November 28. (Note: the final observer figure will be
slightly higher, as accreditation for 16 U.S. Embassy
observers was issued after the deadline due to delays at
the MFA. End note.)


15. (U) CEC Chairman Zhumabekov spoke highly of the CEC's
cooperation with the OSCE/ODIHR and other observer
missions. Zhumabekov characterized the second interim


report by the OSCE/ODIHR EOM as generally impartial. He
said that the CEC had adopted half of the recommendations
made by OSCE observers, including annulling the use of
envelopes for paper ballots and granting permission to
interpreters to escort international observers and
reporters.


16. (SBU) On November 24, ENEMO held a press conference to
announce that the group had managed to register with the
CEC under the auspices of NDI (reftel). The press
conference elicited an immediate reaction from the
procuracy, which warned ENEMO that it could not make any
independent statements because it can only operate as a
part of the NDI observation mission. Post has been
working with ENEMO and NDI to ensure that future
statements are presented in a way consistent with ENEMO's
status.

Local NGO Denied Accreditation
--------------


17. (U) On November 29, a local NGO known as the Election
& Democracy International Association (EDIA) held a press
conference in Almaty to announce that their request for
accreditation as election observers had been denied by the
MFA. According to EDIA's president, Pavel Lobachev, on
November 16 the MFA notified him that his request for
accreditation had been denied because the group did not
meet the definition of an "international organization" as
defined by Kazakhstani law. EDIA was not recognized as an
international organization because it was registered as an
NGO in Kazakhstan. (Note: EDIA, which was founded in 2004,
received accreditation to observe last year's legislative
elections. Its report was generally positive, causing some
journalists to speculate that the MFA's interpretation of
the law was actually aimed at other observation missions
like CIS-EMO and that EDIA unfortunately fell into the
same category. Lobachev did not object to this reasoning.
End note.)

Kyrgyzstanis Deported
--------------


18. (U) On November 27, more than one hundred nationals of
Kyrgyzstan were deported from Kazakhstan. They were
detained in Almaty by Zhetysy district police officers in
the morning of November 27. The detainees claimed that
they were forced into two buses, without explanation, and
taken to the Korday border post. The police confiscated
their migration cards and marked their passports with
deportation stamps, which bars the holder entry into
Kazakhstan for 3to 5 years. Kyrgyzstani officials are
reportedly investigating the matter. The Express K
newspaper speculated on November 30 that those deported
were "revolutionists" seeking to breach civic order.
"They were offended because were not allowed to help
export revolution to brotherly Kazakhstan. At the same
time, some internet sites in Kyrgyzstan carried
information saying that the deported Kyrgyzstani migrants
were getting ready to carry out a revolution on behalf of
their Kazakh brothers," the newspaper reported.


19. (U) On November 30, Kazakhstan's Ambassador to
Kyrgyzstan, Umurzak Uzbekov, said that 108 Kyrgyzstani
citizens had been deported from Kazakhstan because they
were staying in the country illegally. "All of them had
been working in Almaty markets. They had no registration
and had no rights to do business." (Interfax, November
30)

Security Tightened on Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan Border
-------------- --------------


20. (SBU) Kazakhstan has tightened security on its border
with Kyrgyzstan, the National Security Committee (KNB)
announced on November 29. New security measures will
include increasing the number of border guards, rotating
guards more frequently, and tightening border control
procedures. "The regime has been established to prevent
undesirable elements from getting into the country," the
KNB said. Although the press characterized the measures
as the closure of the border, the KNB stressed that the
measures represented a tightening of control rather than
closure. In discussions with Embassy representatives,


Border Guard officials would not confirm any link to the
presidential elections.


21. (SBU) Kazakhstan's ambassador to Kyrgyzstan explicitly
linked the two events, however. In a November 30 press
conference in Bishkek, Ambassador Umurzak Uzbekov stated
that "a temporary regime restricting the crossing of the
Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan border has been imposed since
November 28 due to the presidential election in
Kazakhstan." "According to our Kyrgyzstani colleagues,
there is a big flood' of drugs and weapons being
trafficked through the Central Asia, including the
territory of Kyrgyzstan. The tightened regime for
crossing the border is related to ensuring security during
the election. This regime may remain until December 8.
The regime does not impede cross border travel Kyrgyzstani
citizens who have diplomatic and service passports and who
are visiting Kazakhstan for service purposes or family
problems," Uzbekov added. (Interfax, November 30)

Police Operations Intensify
--------------


22. (U) On November 30, Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov
ordered the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to tighten
security over strategically important facilities including
ones that provide utilities.


23. (U) On November 25, about 20,000 policemen were
deployed to provide security for election precincts. A
coordination center for police operations related to the
elections was set up at the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
All police stations have mobilized teams of investigators
to act on any possible violations of the law. The number
of police patrols was increased. (Note: Post has no
information to corroborate a kub.kz report that MOD troops
have been sent to Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent to provide
reinforced security. End note.)

Universities Dismissed Early
--------------


24. (SBU) A representative of the OSCE/ODIHR EOM confirmed
to POEC chief on December 2 that the mission had verified
reports that universities in Almaty had released their
students early in order to discourage political activism
and/or protests. Some students were threatened with
expulsion if they remained at school and took part in
political activities.


Candidates Present Campaign Speeches
--------------


25. (U) The four challengers chose to use their government-
provided 15 minutes of airtime on Kazakhstan One late in
the campaign. Baymenov's address was aired on November
30, Eleusizov's on November 29, and Abylkasymov and
Tuyakbay's on November 28. The national television
channel initially refused to air Tuyakbay's taped address,
however, citing article 29 of the election law which makes
it a crime to spread ideas that promote social discord.
After intervention by the CEC, the station aired the
address in full.

CEC Pledges Fair Access to Media
--------------


26. (U) "The rights of candidates to place their campaign
materials in official mass media at the expense of the
state will be fully realized," CEC chairman Zhumabekov
said on November 29. Zhumabekov noted that
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda and Yegemen Kazakhstan published an
address by Tuyakbay in Kazakh on November 29. Earlier in
the week, both newspapers refused to publish Tuyakbay's
statement because it contained a reference to the regime
as authoritarian. In response, Tuyakbay's headquarters
submitted a complaint to the CEC. In reference to
Tuyakbay's complaint, Zhumabekov commented that "The law
allows the editor to examine materials and to make his
decision on whether to publish or not the material
depending on the content. The editors acted according to
the rights provided by the law. Candidates who were


denied publication can appeal the ruling with the court."

Update on Nurkadilov's Death
--------------


27. (U) An anonymous source from the Ministry of Internal
Affairs was quoted by Interfax on November 29 as saying
that Zamanbek Nurkadilov committed suicide. The source
reportedly said that "the cause for the suicide was family
conflicts and quarrels with his wife Makpal Zhunusova.
According to the investigation, on the eve of his death
Nurkadilov was depressed. Empty boxes of strong sleeping
pills - Imovan and Semnol - were found on the scene."

28. (U) The same day in Almaty, Serikkali Musin, Makpal
Zhunusova's lawyer, held a press conference to brief
journalists on the investigation. "Suicide is out of the
question. We believe it was a murder. Murder on the
grounds of family conflicts is impossible. A third party
is responsible," Musin said. According to Musin, on
November 24 the police examined the scene and found
numerous blood tracks all over the building including the
corridor, the bathroom, and the adjacent rooms. Musin
suggested the tracks were evidence of resistance. Police
also examined Zhunusova's fingers and clothes for traces
of gunpowder and the results were negative, Musin said. He
claimed that the body was covered by a sheet when
discovered, with the gun on top of the sheet. Musin said
that Zhusupov did not attend the press conference because
she was depressed and on the verge of a breakdown due to
pressure from her husband's relatives and the police.

ORDWAY