Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY4234
2005-11-29 21:06:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,

Tags:  PGOV KZ 
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UNCLAS ALMATY 004234 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,
NOVEMBER 29

UNCLAS ALMATY 004234

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,
NOVEMBER 29


1. (U) This is the tenth in a series of weekly election
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
the local press and media.

Poll Shows Nazarbayev Popularity at 76 Percent
-------------- -


2. (U) A recent opinion poll conducted by Kazrating, a pro-
government polling agency, indicated that President
Nazarbayev's popularity rating stood at 76%. Support for
Yerasyl Abylkasymov, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and Alikhan
Baymenov had fallen to under 10% for each candidate,
according to the poll. Half of one percent said they
supported Mels Yeleusizov. The poll was conducted over
three days and surveyed 1,000 people. Three-fourths of
respondents confirmed they would vote.

Office of the Procurator General Praises CEC Efforts
-------------- --------------


3. (U) A report prepared by the Office of the Procurator
General praised the Central Election Committee (CEC) and
other government agencies for their efforts in monitoring
the election process. The report applauded the openness
and high professionalism of the CEC and the effective
measures taken by government agencies to ensure the
fairness of the upcoming vote. The report also noted that
the opposition committed the highest number of electoral
law violations, most of which were related to the
collection of signatures.

KNB Issues New Warning
--------------


4. (U) On November 24, the National Security Committee
(KNB) issued a press release stating that "the national
security agencies of Kazakhstan will put a stop to any
attempts directed against the interests of citizens,
society and the state." The statement said that members
of public organizations (NFI) were trying to provoke
conflict between the government and the opposition by
accusing the leadership of the country of pursuing
undemocratic policies. "We are checking information about
youth groups formed from low category young people, who
will be used for participating in so-called active
actions." According to KNB sources, two representatives
of the Kazakhstani opposition operating in Kyrgyzstan
addressed a letter to youth organizations, urging the
opposition to victory by organizing a popular uprising.


5. (U) The press release also stressed that some media
outlets have without merit regularly published and aired
materials discrediting national security agencies.

According to the press release, representatives of the For
a Just Kazakhstan (FJK) bloc and journalists affiliated
with FJK use every opportunity to associate all negative
public incidents to the special services.

Independent Monitoring Organization Reports Violations
-------------- --------------


6. (U) On November 22, the Republican Network of
Independent Monitors (RNIM) issued its intermediate report
on the election. The RNIM recorded violations of the
election law during the signature collection campaign,
noting that that election commissions failed to properly
inform people about the candidates and the signature
collecting campaign. The RNIM report also stated that law
enforcement agencies and local authorities had interfered
in the election process. According to the report,
representatives of local procuracy offices in 13 regions
overstepped their authority by reviewing the signature
forms of potential presidential candidate Ualikhan
Kaysarov. Only the CEC maintained the legal authority to
oversee the signature collection campaign.

Opposition Urges CEC to Issue Special Ruling
--------------


7. (U) On November 25, the election headquarters of
Tuyakbay, Baymenov, and Yeleusizov appealed to the CEC to
pass urgently a special ruling on election procedures to
ensure a fair vote. The appeal recommended the CEC


implement several procedures, including placement of
posters at the entrance of every polling station with
information about voters' rights to use either the e-
voting system of paper ballots, timely delivery of
election results, and the annulment of a previous CEC
ruling on the use of envelopes for paper ballots. The head
of Nazarbayev's election headquarters Bakhytzhan
Zhumagulov declined to sign the appeal. Abylkasymov's
campaign team said they would probably sign the appeal,
but needed to discuss the matter internally.


8. (U) On November 28, the CEC adopted a decree reversing
the decision to use envelopes during the voting.

International Observers
--------------


9. (U) On November 28 the CEC accredited an additional 15
foreign observers and journalists, bringing the total to

1605.


10. (U) On November 18, the CEC, at the behest of the
Procurator General, ordered the CIS-EMO group to leave
Kazakhstan by November 25. The group appealed to
President Nazarbayev to intervene. CIS-EMO claimed that
political motives were behind the CEC's decision to revoke
the group's accreditation. CIS-EMO issued a preliminary
report which documented interference in the election
process by government officials and other actors.

Opposition Leader Fined for Insulting College Principal
-------------- --------------


11. (U) The city court in Semipalatinsk found Tolen
Tokhtasynov of "For a Just Kazakhstan" guilty of insulting
college principal Marat Mukhamedzhanov. The court ordered
Tokhtasynov to pay 48,550 Tenge ($362) in damages. The
incident reportedly occurred during Tuyakbay's election
campaign stop in Semipalatinsk.

Otan Party Crying Foul
--------------


12. (U) Four unidentified assailants broke into the Otan
Party headquarters in the city of Shymkent. The police
failed to arrest the culprits. Some party documents were
allegedly stolen, but the head of the branch office,
Shaltay Myrzakhmetov, could not identify which documents
were lost.


13. (U) Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters in Shymkent
announced on November 24 that two unidentified people had
beaten up a representative of the Otan campaign
headquarters in Turkestan, Kakharman Koshkarov. Otan
representatives claimed the incident was politically
motivated. The local MVD is investigating.

Communist Newspaper Accused of Violating the Law
-------------- ---


14. (U) The Procurator General of Karaganda City filed a
lawsuit against the editor-in-chief of the Communist of
Kazakhstan newspaper for publishing free-of-charge
campaign materials in support of Abylkasymov. The
People's Communist Party of Kazakhstan denied the
accusations, saying that they cannot "pay money to
themselves."

Nazarbayev Says Election Process Fair
--------------


15. (U) On November 18 in Kiev, Ukraine, President
Nazarbayev reiterated that the Government of Kazakhstan
was doing everything to hold fair elections. Nazarbayev
expressed hope that international observers would assess
the elections objectively. When asked if the election
issue was raised at his meeting with Ukrainian President
Yushenko, Nazarbayev replied that their talks were limited
to trade. Kazakhstan is a sufficiently democratic
country, said Nazarbayev.

ORDWAY