KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,

UNCLAS ALMATY 004171

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP,
NOVEMBER 25, 2005

REF: Almaty 3919


1. (U) This is the ninth in a series of weekly election
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
local media reporting.

Live TV debate
--------------


2. (U) On the night of November 17 live TV debates were
held in Almaty and broadcast on national television. The
participants included presidential candidates Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay, Alikhan Baymenov, Mels Yeleusizov and Yerasyl
Abylkasymov. President Nazarbayev was out of the country,
but had previously declined to participate in the debates.
During the debate, the candidates described their
programs, posed questions to one another, and gave short
addresses to the electorate.


3. (U) Tuyakbay declared that he wanted to address his
questions to Nursultan Nazarbayev, but since Nazarbayev
was absent he would ask Baymenov, instead, for his opinion
about "Kazakhgate." (Note: "Kazakhgate" refers to the case
of American citizen James Giffen, a former advisor to
Nazarbayev, who allegedly violated the Foreign Corrupt
Practices Act by channeling millions of dollars from U.S.
and other Western oil companies to top Kazakhstan
officials in order to secure lucrative contracts. The
trial is expected to begin in federal court in April 2006.
End Note.) Baymenov replied that the details of the case
should be made public in Kazakhstan, and the stolen money
returned to the country. However, Baymenov added, it was
premature to accuse anybody before the court had passed
its ruling. For his part, Tuyakbay commented that "there
is no hope that the facts and details of the Giffen case
will ever be made public as long as this political regime
is in place."


4. (U) Following the debate, a spokesperson from
Tuyakbay's headquarters said that the event was a positive
step and a good opportunity for the candidates to talk
about their programs, but that the debate format had
satisfied none of the candidates -- except for Nazarbayev,
who had refused to participate. "For Just Kazakhstan"
(FJK) publicly called for the interested parties to
arrange another debate with Nazarbayev's participation.

Nurkadilov's Death
--------------


5. (U) The investigation into former, senior GOK official
and most-recently opposition critic Zamanbek Nurkadilov's
death continues. On November 16 police questioned
Nurkadilov's wife, the well-known folk singer Makpal
Zhunusova, for 4 hours. In a subsequent press interview
Zhunusova said that her husband could not have committed
suicide, as there had been no reason for him to take his
own life. "He loved me very much, and I respected him.
We were a good family. Throughout Kazakhstan everyone
knew about it. And there is no point in talking about
it."


6. (U) On November 15, Dariga Nazarbayeva made the
following comment on Nurkadilov's death: "This tragedy
will be exploited as much as possible by political
figures. This tragedy suits the radical opposition, but
not the authorities."

GOK Warnings Against "Destabilization" Attempts
-------------- --


7. (U) On November 16 the head of the National Security
Committee (KNB),Nartay Dutbayev, warned that GOK security
agencies would put a stop to any attempt to foment a
"colored revolution" during Kazakhstan's upcoming
elections. "I do not exclude the possibility that certain
'hot-heads,' who are participating in the election for the
presidency, may provoke incidents aimed at destabilizing
the country," he said. "We have information to that
effect."


8. (U) In response to Dutbayev's statement, Tuyakbay's
headquarters addressed a rhetorical question to the KNB


chief and the CEC chairman: "Where did you get information
that some individuals are trying to destabilize the
situation in the country? Who are the 'hot-heads'
mentioned in the statement? And how do security agencies
interpret the idea of 'colored revolution?' Do you mean
new, honest people coming to power after a long period of
authoritarian rule; or popular, non-violent campaigns
against fraud and the betrayal of the peoples' will?"


9. (U) During a November 17 briefing, Interior Minister
Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov also warned that the opposition
was trying to "heat up" the situation, accusing the
opposition of lending a political interpretation to non-
political events. As examples, Mukhamedzhanov cited FJK's
mid-October "fuss" over a Zhuma Times journalist who
"disappeared" in Southern Kazakhstan (the disappearance
was later discovered to be due to the journalist's memory
lapse),and the opposition's outcry over Tuyakbay campaign
materials that went missing (the bus carrying the
materials was later found to have broken down.) Finally,
Mukhamedzhanov defended law enforcement efforts to find
FJK activist Elena Nikitina's missing daughter and said
the opposition was trying to "politicize" the case.
(Note: Per reftel, on October 13 Nikitina's 14 year-old
daughter disappeared. FJK claims that, following the
girl's disappearance, law enforcement officials tried to
recruit Nikitina to provide information about FJK
activities. It is not clear whether foul play was actually
involved. End Note.)


10. (U) In conclusion, the Minister suggested that "there
are some forces in the country trying to destabilize the
situation." He continued: "According to our sources,
certain political figures plan provocations to disrupt the
normal life of our citizens. Some opposition leaders have
even attempted to bribe law enforcement officials.
Radical forces are getting ready to take actions in order
to create disorder in the country. We will put a stop to
any destabilization attempts and the organizers will be
held responsible for the consequences of their illegal
actions."


11. (U) On November 16, CEC Chairman Onalsyn Zhumabekov
said that the CEC had learned that attempts would be made
to destabilize public order on December 4. Zhumabekov did
not give any names, but said that "certain people"
intended to stage protests under the pretext that their
names were missing from voters' lists. Zhumabekov noted
that voters' lists would be posted at all voting stations
from November 18 until December 3, and warned that it was
the voters' responsibility to verify that their names were
listed correctly.

Reported Attacks on Opposition Figures and Families
-------------- --------------


12. (U) On November 15 Tuyakbay's campaign chief in
Mangistau Oblast, Zhanibek Kozhyk, was driving home when
his car was stopped by four young men. When Kozhyk got
out of the car the men beat him severely, and left him in
an unpopulated area. Kozhyk's car and the driver,
Zhetybay Sansyzbayev, disappeared. On November 17,
Mukhamedzhanov announced that the police had detained two
individuals suspected of the assault.


13. (U) On the night of November 16, three Almaty City
police officers and a civilian beat up two of opposition
leader Altynbek Sarsenbayuly's nephews. According to press
reports, the violence occurred in a club, where the
policemen insulted Sarsenbayuly's nephews and then beat
them with billiard balls. The men were subsequently
treated for serious neurosurgical injuries. The police
are investigating the case, which Sarsenbayuly
characterized as a "political incident."

CEC Withdrawing Observers' Accreditation
--------------


14. (U) On November 18, the CEC withdrew accreditation of
the CIS-EMO, arguing that its status as an international
NGO disqualified it for accreditation. CEC Chairman
Zhumabekov later explained that, pursuant to the election
law, representatives of foreign states, international
governmental organizations, and foreign media could be


accredited for elections, but not private citizens or
NGOs.


15. (SBU) The CEC used the same criterion to challenge
the observer status of several ENEMO observers and an NDI
representative. Embassy intervention with high-level GOK
contacts prevented the expulsion of six ENEMO personnel
and the Amcit NDI employee over the weekend of November 19-

20. The observers were subsequently able to regularize
their immigration status. With the GOK's approval,
efforts are underway to register NDI observers under the
auspices of ENEMO.

CEC Moves to Lift Ban on Public Rallies
--------------


16. (U) The CEC initiated a new draft law canceling the
ban on public rallies during the vote-counting process.
The government approved the draft and the Ministry of
Justice announced that it would be sent to Parliament in
the near future; however, no timelines were set.

GOK Efforts to Balance Criticism
--------------


17. (U) The government continued its campaign to counter
negative election publicity. On November 16, official
media publicized the Caspian Information Center's (a
London-based observation group) appraisal of recent
amendments to Kazakhstan's electoral law. The CIC report
disagrees with the OSCE criticism of the ban on public
rallies during the vote-counting, and calls on
international observers to show more responsibility
regarding the potential political consequences of their
recommendations.


18. (U) On November 15, the Eurasian Rating Agency and
Channel 31 announced plans to conduct exit-polls in all
regional centers of Almaty and Astana on December 4,
ostensibly to balance potentially negative exit polls
conducted by the "Fair Elections" group of human rights
activists.

Zhakiyanov Update
--------------


19. (U) On November 2, the administration of the
"settlement colony" where Zhakiyanov is being held
recommended his release. On November 17, the Ministry of
Justice announced that the MOJ "sees no barriers
preventing the release of Galymzhan Zhakiyanov," and on
November 18 the settlement colony's recommendation was
passed to the Yekibastyz City court for action.


20. (U) Minimize for Dushanbe Considered.

ORDWAY


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