KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION FIGURE MURDERED AT HOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 004144

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION FIGURE MURDERED AT HOME

REF: A. ALMATY 4074

B. 04 ALMATY 2826

C. 04 ALMATY 869

D. 04 ALMATY 907

E. ALMATY 4076

Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The murder on November 12 of former
high-level GOK official, and more recently outspoken
opposition figure, Zamanbek Nurkadilov has touched off a
series of rumors and accusations among the Kazakhstani public
and political elite. Shot three times at his residence,
Nurtadilov had reportedly told several people that he was
planning to reveal compromising information about President
Nazarbayev before the December 4 presidential elections. The
police have launched an energetic investigation, but have not
yet publicly identified any suspects. There is no evidence
that the murder was politically motivated. End summary.

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Facts of the Case
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2. (SBU) On November 12, outspoken opposition figure Zamanbek
Nurkadilov was found dead in his home by his wife, well-known
singer Makpal Zhunusova (Ref A). According to the family
lawyer, he had been shot twice in the chest and once in the
head. His own "Cobalt" revolver and a pillow with bullet
holes in it were found near the body. President Nazarbayev
issued a condolence statement and ordered the formation of a
special operational investigative group from the Almaty
police to investigate the death. In a November 15 statement,
investigators confirmed that Nurkadilov had been shot once in
the temple, believed to be the fatal wound, and twice in the
body. The police are still reviewing physical, ballistic,
and other forensic evidence, as well as witness statements.
On November 13 the police announced that they had reviewed
video footage from the 16 security cameras on Nurkadilov's
property and determined that no strangers had entered that
day. On November 15, investigators termed that analysis
"preliminary" and announced that that they were reviewing all
of the footage in detail. They announced on November 17
that Nurkadilov's relatives described him as very nervous the
night before and day of his death. The investigators have
not publicly identified any suspects.


3. (C) Nurkadilov was a longtime Nazarbayev ally who split
with him in spring 2004 over the move of the Agency for
Emergency Situations, which he then headed, from Almaty to
Astana. After calling for Nazarbayev's resignation,
Nurkadilov was sacked, and became an outspoken critic of the
administration (Refs B-C). Following opposition journalist
Askhat Sharipzhanov's death after being hit by a car in July
2004, Nurkadilov accused Nazarbayev and then-Presidential
Administration head (and now Almaty City akim) Imangali
Tasmagambetov of ordering the killing. Nurtadilov claimed
the reason was to suppress information Sharipzhanov had
obtained in interviews with Nurkadilov and opposition leader
Sarsenbaiuly (Ref D). In spring 2005, Nurkadilov announced
that he had incriminating information about Nazarbayev that
he had placed in a safe deposit box in Europe. Although he
was on the Central Council of the "For a Just Kazakhstan"
movement, Nurkadilov had not been a visible part of the
ongoing presidential election campaign.

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Theories of the Crime
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4. (C) Family or business dispute: Several commentators and
GOK officials have speculated that, because it appears no
strangers entered the Nurkadilov family compound on November
12, he must have been killed by a family member or business
associate. The police questioned his widow for four hours on
November 16. Zhunusova later issued a statement saying that
their relationship had been healthy. Independent journalist
Sergey Duvanov, who claims to have known the couple well,
told POEC chief that he did not believe Zhunusova was
responsible. He added that Nurkadilov had excellent
relationships with his two adult children from his first
marriage. Duvanov also discounted rumors that Nurkadilov was
killed over a business dispute, on the grounds that
Nurkadilov had made all his money while akim of Almaty
(1997-2001) and had no ongoing business activities.


5. (C) GOK-ordered hit: Several political analysts,
including Duvanov in a November 14 kub.kz article, have
speculated that the authorities had Nurkadilov killed to
prevent him from going public with compromising information
about Nazarbayev in the run up to December 4 presidential

elections. Opposition journalist Yermurat Bapi announced on
November 14 that Nurkadilov had told him in late October that
he was getting ready to reveal a "new bomb," i.e. information
about Nazarbayev. Duvanov told POEC chief that Nurkadilov
had told him he planned to make the announcement on December
1 in Europe. The "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement issued a
statement labeling the killing political without elaborating
on this conclusion. The vigor with which the authorities
have begun the investigation would appear to indicate they
have nothing to hide. Presidential advisor Karim Masimov
told the Ambassador that the GOK would do whatever it took to
ensure a complete investigation, including calling in
international experts if necessary.


6. (C) Opposition "provocation": Mazhilis member Mikhail
Troshikhin appeared to blame the opposition when he said that
"only destructive forces which want to explode and shake the
situation in Kazakhstan, which want blood," would benefit
from Nurkadilov's death. First daughter and Mazhilis member
Dariga Nazarbayeva echoed Troshikhin's comments on November
15, saying that "this tragic death is handy above all for the
opposition, not for the authorities." This theory has not
gained much resonance, likely due to the fact that none of
the opposition figures is known to have ever resorted to
force. Duvanov also pointed out that the fact that the
opposition did not take action to capitalize on the death
politically, such as by organizing a protest during the
funeral, as a sign that they were not behind it.


7. (C) Destabilization by a "third force": Several political
analysts have commented publicly and privately that they see
the murder as an attempt by someone in power to discredit
Nazarbayev and destabilize the political situation. DCK
activist Gulzhan Yergeliyeva stated publicly that the killing
had been political, by someone seeking to "frame" Nazarbayev.
In a conversation with PolFSN on November 14, Nurbulat
Masanov described Nurkadilov's death as "the first political
assassination in the history of independent Kazakhstan" and
said it marked the start of a fight for power between
influential groups surrounding Nazarbayev. He opined that
someone close to the president had ordered the hit in order
to place Nazarbayev under attack. Duvanov told POEC chief
that, despite what he had written, he personally subscribed
to this theory. He thought that ruthless, wealthy people
around the president -- possibly sons-in-law Rakhat Aliyev or
Timur Kulibayev -- had started the struggle for power by
discrediting Nazarbayev. Duvanov thought the person
responsible could have been reacting to a perceived "detente"
between the opposition and the authorities following
Nazarbayev's October 24 statement that he would work with the
opposition after the election if they behaved responsibly
(Ref E). Duvanov added he was beginning to rethink his
earlier belief that Sharipzhanov's death had been accidental.

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Comment
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8. (C) We may never know the truth behind Nurkadilov's death.
Nevertheless, it seems clear that neither President
Nazarbayev himself nor the opposition stood to gain from an
inconclusive scandal in the weeks before the election. The
simplest explanation is the most likely: Nurkadilov was
killed by someone in his family or close circle of friends.
Despite this, the way the killing was carried out, the timing
so close to presidential elections, and Nurkadilov's history
of threatening to reveal the misdeeds of those in power have
created a widespread public view that the murder was
politically motivated, However, the fact that Nurkadilov's
own pistol was the murder weapon and that he lived in a
well-guarded residential compound surrounded by family
members point to the former rather than the latter theory.

ORDWAY


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