Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY4123
2005-11-21 00:07:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM KZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS ALMATY 004123 

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE); EUR/ACE (JMCKANE),
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY
ACTING CHAIRMAN

UNCLAS ALMATY 004123

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE); EUR/ACE (JMCKANE),
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY
ACTING CHAIRMAN


1. (SBU) Summary: Ambassador Ordway met with Acting "Otan"
Party chairman Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov in Almaty on November

15. Zhumagulov, who is also chairman of Nazarbayev's re-
election campaign, had requested the meeting. He told the
Ambassador that Nazarbayev's rating is close to 70%, and the
election results will bear that out. Zhumagulov criticized
the interim OSCE report on the election campaign, saying
that it gave the government no credit for its efforts to
ensure the fairness of the campaign and poll. Zhumagulov
characterized the overall political situation as stable, but
identified Almaty, Astana and several other large cities as
highly politicized. He outlined a campaign approach that
involves little or no personal involvement by President
Nazarbayev. End summary.


2. (SBU) Zhumagulov told the Ambassador that party-sponsored
opinion polls revealed President Nazarbayev would receive in
the neighborhood of 70 percent of the vote. (Note: an
independent poll organized by the International Republican
Institute gave the President a substantially higher rating.
End Note.) Zhumagulov said that in its polling, the party
often has to filter exaggerated results that show the
President with better than 90% approval.


3. (SBU) Zhumagulov roundly criticized the OSCE's interim
report on the election process. He claimed to have
forwarded 120 reports of "violations" in the regions to the
OSCE, none of which were mentioned in the report. He
suggested that the OSCE was guilty of a double standard
toward the authorities, because the report did not address
alleged incidents where the opposition refused to allow
certain people into their events. The CEC, he said, also
got no credit for ruling that candidates would be guaranteed
equal access to the media.


4. (SBU) Zhumagulov dismissed criticisms that oppositionists
are unfairly denied access to venues for holding rallies.
He said that even he had been told by local authorities in
some cases that large, centrally located venues he wanted
for a campaign event was not available, including in
Shymkent, Almaty and Kyzyl-Orda.


5. (SBU) Zhumagulov also described the organization of the
President's campaign. The Otan party and its pro-
presidential coalition partners are committed to doing all
they can to support Nazarbayev, although the President is
not participating directly in the campaign. He gave a
figure of roughly 28,000 activists in the field supporting
Nazarbayev. With these numbers the pro-presidential
campaign is able to reach even the most remote locations.
The opposition's significant manpower deficit prevents them
from reaching rural areas. Zhumagulov said the campaign has
a different approach in the villages: instead of holding
rallies, the campaign will find a respected, older member of
the community to go door-to-door making the pitch for the
President. In urban areas, the most effective approach is
leaflets in mailboxes. Personal approaches, either door-to-
door or by telephone, are counterproductive.


6. (SBU) Zhumagulov commented briefly on the President's
decision not to participate in the November 17 televised
debate with the other candidates. Nazarbayev made an
official visit to Kiev that day, but in any event would not
have participated. The party leadership did not see any
reason for Nazarbayev, who enjoys universal name recognition
and 70 percent approval, to appear in a forum with
candidates "whose ratings are about a fraction of a
percent."


7. (SBU) Finally, while Zhumagulov characterized the overall
political situation as stable, he did identify Almaty,
Astana, Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk, Shymkent and Ust-
Kamenogorsk as the most politically active. He also
indicated that the party was concerned about voter turnout,
although he expected a minimum of 60% participation. His
concern was most likely limited to the damage low turnout
might do to public perception of the election's legitimacy,
as Kazakhstan does not have a minimum turnout threshold for
the election to be certified.

ORDWAY


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