Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY4074
2005-11-15 21:21:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP

Tags:  PGOV KZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS ALMATY 004074 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP

REF: Almaty 4010

UNCLAS ALMATY 004074

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP

REF: Almaty 4010


1. (U) This is the eighth in a series of weekly election
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
the local press and media.

CEC Statements on Election Campaigns
--------------


2. (U) On November 3, CEC Chairman Zhumabekov sent a
letter to the head of Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters
Zhumagulov regarding violations of the law by some
activists of Nazarbayev's campaign. The CEC received
information on a number of public meetings arranged by
representatives of Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters that
violated the law. The CEC requested that immediate
measures be taken not to allow any illegal public
meetings.


3. (SBU) On November 8, the CEC issued a warning against
any campaigning by foreigners, foreign organizations,
Kazakhstani government agencies or officials in favor of
any candidate. The CEC ordered the MFA to remove from its
website Malaysian former Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad's
greetings and wishes of success to Nazarbayev in the
upcoming elections. Some observers saw the statement as
an indirect warning to other government agencies and
officials that they must abide by the law; others saw it
as a clumsy attempt to show the CEC's impartiality.


4. (U) In a November 11 press conference, CEC Chairman
Zhumabekov announced that the CEC plans to introduce
amendments to the Election Law to revoke the provision
banning rallies and demonstrations after the end of
election campaigns. Zhumabekov said that the CEC agreed
with the OSCE/ODIHR, which had pointed out that such a ban
could limit the freedom of peaceful meetings. The CEC
released a formal statement the same day responding to
ODIHR's first interim report in detail. The CEC described
the ODIHR report as generally positive and reflecting the
spirit of constructive cooperation between the OSCE/ODIHR
and the CEC. The statement noted that the report
reflected EOM head Amb. Audrey Glover's commitment to
unbiased observation without "double standards." The CEC
stated that it had taken action to implement a number of
"reasonable" ODIHR recommendations, including canceling
the Almaty procuracy's August 16 warning to Tuyakbay,
streamlining the procedure for issuance of absentee
registration cards, and introducing a draft amendment to
revoke the April 2005 ban on peaceful rallies and public
between the end of the campaign and the announcement of

results. (Note: The draft was sent to Parliament on
November 15 but is unlikely to be passed before the
presidential elections.) The CEC is setting up a group of
experts to work on further improvement of the election
legislation.


5. (U) The statement noted that the CEC did not agree with
all the recommendations in the ODIHR report, however. The
most serious one concerns the composition of electoral
commissions. The CEC stated that Kazakhstan meets the
requirement of the Copenhagen document regarding the
ability of political parties and organizations to compete
with one another on an equal basis. It also stated that
all legal political parties are represented on electoral
commissions. The CEC also disagreed with ODIHR's
criticism of CEC decisions to deny registration to a
number of candidates. In the statement, the CEC expressed
its readiness to review any reports of restriction of
freedom of speech or abuse of power by local governments
or law enforcement about which the OSCE has reliable
evidence.


Almaty Residents Support Nazarbayev
--------------


6. (U) About 73% of voters in Almaty plan to go to the
polls on December 4, the Kazrating agency announced on
November 7. According to their survey, if the election
were to be held the next Sunday, 71% of the electorate
would vote for Nazarbayev, 17% for Tuyakbay, and 11% for
Alikhan Baymenov, Yerasyl Abylkasymov and Mels Yeleusizov
combined. "At the same time, Almaty residents are not

confident that the upcoming election will be fair and
legitimate," Kazrating's executive director Maksim
Kaznacheyev said. "Only 14% expressed their confidence in
that. This figure is an indication that Astana may fail
to hold a fair and legitimate election. The power should
change its approach to the election campaign and try to
make it more transparent and flexible, so that there will
be no rebukes for non-legitimacy."


Interior Ministry Responds to Tuyakbay's Complaint
-------------- --------------


7. (U) As Zharmakhan Tuyakbay continued his election
campaign with visits to Mangistau and Atyrau Oblasts this
week, his election headquarters issued a statement
addressed to the Central Election Commission (CEC) about
provocative actions against Tuyakbay by unspecified
individuals during his October 29 meeting at the Kosmos
movie theater in Pavlodar (reftel). The CEC forwarded the
complaint to the Interior Ministry. Vice Minister Alik
Shpekbayev responded that they had received no complaints
on the incident. According to Shpekbayev, the oblast
police provided for order around the Kosmos theater and
recorded no violations. The FJK security service was
responsible for maintaining order inside the building.
Shpekbayev stated that, in light of the statement from
Tuyakbay's campaign headquarters, the Interior Ministry
had taken appropriate measures to coordinate its
activities with those of candidates' security services in
order to prevent disorder in the future.


Police Block FJK Film Screening
--------------


8. (U) On November 11 in Almaty, the police tried to
prevent Tuyakbay's campaign team from showing what
authorities described as a film "defaming" President
Nazarbayev. Tuyakbay's proxy Gulzhan Yergaliyeva and
three other opposition activists disobeyed the police
order. As a result, Yergaliyeva and her companions,
Tatyana Chernyak, T. Aletova and A. Masymkhodjayeva, were
detained and taken to the Bostandyk district police
office. The video camera and video tapes were seized, and
administrative charges were filed against all four FJK
activists. In addition, Yergaliyeva was charged with
disseminating slanderous material (Article 100 of the
Administrative Code provides for up to 25,000 tenge or
$186 fine). The activists were released.


Mass Media Coverage of the Campaign
--------------


9. (U) The Ministry of Culture, Information and Sport
(MCIS) on November 7 released its second survey of mass
media coverage of the presidential campaign during the
preceding week. The highest number of reports (81) were
about Tuyakbay's campaign; 66 reports were about
Baymenov's campaign; and 32 were about Yeleusizov's
campaign. The MCIS noted that its monitoring did not
include materials related to Nazarbayev's activities as
President. The Ministry criticized Kazakh radio and
Interfax agency for uneven coverage of the campaigns. It
also warned media outlets against the publication of
information marring the honor, dignity and reputation of
the presidential candidates. The survey was based on
publications and news reports of the Kazakhstan-1 and
Khabar TV channels, Kazakh Radio, Yegemen Kazakhstan and
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspapers, and Kazinform news
agency.


International press center to cover elections
--------------


10. (U) A new international press center is opening to
support coverage of the upcoming election. Its two major
offices will be located in Almaty and Astana; they will be
equipped with advanced technology such as high-speed
Internet, fax, and DVC. Well-known political analysts
will be invited to comment on the election campaigns.
International reporters and observers are expected to do
the bulk of their reporting on elections from the two

centers.


TV Debate
--------------


11. (U) The CEC has announced plans to conduct a televised
debate on November 17, and sent letters to all candidates
on November 5 inviting them to participate. Tuyakbay
initially responded that the debate would not be
worthwhile unless Nazarbayev took part.


12. (U) Interfax reported on November 12, however, that
Tuyakbay had changed his mind and agreed to participate in
the November 17 debate with Yerasyl Abylkasymov, Alikhan
Baymenov, and Mels Yeleusizov. Nazarbayev will be in Kiev
on an official visit and therefore unable to take part.
The topics for the debate include economic development,
social issues, and domestic and foreign policy, the CEC
reported. The debate will be shown on the Khabar state TV
channel at prime time and will last an hour and a half.


Intermediate Report of Public Committee
--------------


13. (U) The Public Integrity Committee for Control over
Elections, chaired by Senator Sultanov, issued an
intermediate report that concluded that there had been no
serious violations of election legislation during the
nomination campaign. Unlike the OSCE report, the
Kazakhstani committee underscored positive changes in the
election legislation, such as accurate specification of
the rights of observers, the right to check voters' lists
in advance and make due corrections, etc. The report
concluded that all necessary conditions exist for holding
fair and transparent elections in Kazakhstan.

Opposition Figure Killed in Home
--------------


14. (SBU) Former Nazarbayev ally-turned-outspoken
opposition figure Zamanbek Nurkadilov was found dead in
his home on November 12. The Almaty police announced on
November 15 that Nurkadilov had been shot once in the head
and twice in the body. His own Cobalt revolver was found
near his body. According to the Nurkadilov family lawyer,
the killer shot through a pillow. The Almaty police also
stated that preliminary analysis of video images from the
16 security cameras on Nurkadilov's property showed that
no strangers had entered the compound on the day of the
murder. The police are conducting a more detailed
analysis of the footage. While presidential candidate
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay reportedly implied in his speech at
Nurkadilov's funeral that he did not believe the
authorities were involved in the incident, more radical
opposition figures such as Gulzhan Yergaliyeva have made
public accusations to the contrary. Mazhilis member
Mikhail Troshikhin's appeared to blame the opposition when
he said that "only destructive forces which want to
explode and shake the situation in Kazakhstan, which want
blood" would benefit from Nurkadilov's death. Nurkadilov
was buried on November 15 in Almaty.


ENEMO Observers Denied Accreditation
--------------


15. (SBU) The MFA informed the European Network of
Election Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO) on November 7
that its representatives would not be accredited as
election observers because ENEMO did not meet the
definition of an international organization. The MFA
cited the Law on International Agreements as defining an
international organization as an interstate or
intergovernmental organization. Four ENEMO long-term
observers from Ust-Kamenogorsk and Aktau were subsequently
detained and ordered to leave the country. In a November
9 letter to FM Tokayev, the Ambassador expressed
disappointment with the decision and noted that other
organizations with the same legal status as ENEMO,
including the CIS-EMO, had been accredited. In response
to the letter and post's interventions with the
Presidential Administration, the GOK has reviewed the
decision and advised the ENEMO observers to apply for

accreditation under the auspices of NDI. Post is working
with NDI, the MFA, and the Presidential Administration to
ensure that the accreditation process goes smoothly.

ORDWAY


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