KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,

UNCLAS ALMATY 003790

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,
OCTOBER 17


1. (U) This is the fourth in a series of weekly election
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
the local press and media.

Nomination Period Ends
--------------


2. (U) The nomination period ended on October 3. Of the
18 individuals who filed applications for registration, 13
met the pre-registration language requirement. Former
wrestling coach Zhaksybay Bazilbayev withdrew from the
race on October 10, leaving 12 candidates. As of October
14, only three candidates -- Nursultan Nazarbayev,
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and Yerasyl Abylkasymov - had
submitted their signatures to the Central Election
Commission (CEC) for review. Although the CEC recommended
that candidates submit their signatures by October 14 in
order to allow sufficient time for review, Alikhan
Baimenov was expected to submit his materials the
following week.


3. (U) The CEC announced on October 7 that President
Nazarbayev's application had been approved and he had been
officially registered as a candidate. Despite reports
that many of the signatures gathered in support of
Tuyakbay in Atyrau Oblast had been invalidated, the CEC
announced on October 15 that Tuyakbay had also been
officially registered as a candidate.


Accusations of Illegal Campaigning
--------------


4. (SBU) The sides are trading accusations of illegal
campaigning. The opposition has accused Nazarbayev of
illegal early campaigning, due to the president's
involvement in high-profile public events, party meetings,
public associations' congresses, and meetings with
Hollywood celebrities and well-known sportsmen. The
opposition underscores the broad press coverage such
events have received.


5. (SBU) On October 6, the Procurator General's office
issued a press release about falsifications during the
signature collection campaign in six regions. The press
release did not name which candidates' representatives
were involved. Arman Shurayev, of President Nazarbayev's
election headquarters, alleged that some people collected
signatures for other candidates under the false pretense
of gathering signatures for Nazarbayev. The procuracy
announcement urged voters who discover forgery to file
complaints with election commissions.


6. (U) Mazhilis member Abylkasymov issued a statement
calling for the resignation of the Cabinet and of corrupt
regional and district level akims, without naming the
regional leaders he had in mind. Several MPs accused him
of using his parliamentary position to conduct illegal pre-
election campaigning and filed official complaints with
the CEC and the Procurator General.


Tuyakbay Stays on the Offensive
--------------


7. (SBU) In an October 4 open letter to President
Nazarbayev, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay accused the president of
being the principal shareholder and the real owner of
Kazakhstani copper giant Kazakhmys. In the letter,
Tuyakbay wrote that in January 1997 Kazakhmys had been
illegally privatized and sold to Samsung Deutschland GmbH.
In 2002 Samsung sold its shares to three managers of the
enterprise: president Vladimir Kim (47%),general manager
Yong Ku Cha (38.1%),and Oleg Novachuk (12.5%).
"According to foreign analysts, the cost of the enterprise
is about $3.5-4 billion," the letter said. "Tell me how a
former employee of Lenin District Executive Committee,
Vladimir Kim, became an owner of the copper giant,"
Tuyakbay asked. The letter also cited the Sunday Times,
which reported that the third shareholder, Oleg Novachuk,
had been Financial Advisor to President Nazarbayev.
Tuyakbay also asked how the president's brother, Bolat
Nazarbayev, had happened to be a member of the board of


directors of Kazakhmys for a long period.


CEC Makes Several Commitments
--------------


8. (U) On October 11, the CEC issued a statement calling
on all presidential candidates and their teams to observe
the law and to utilize peaceful and non-violent means in
their campaign. The statement spells out several
commitments to ensure fair elections, including ensuring
equal access to the media, objective press coverage,
permission to hold rallies, welcoming foreign observers,
and publishing precinct-by-precinct results within 24
hours.


9. (SBU) "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) immediately labeled
the CEC statement a populist gesture timed to coincide
with Secretary Rice's visit to Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev's
supporters, on the other hand, welcomed the statement as
very timely. In conversations with post, Baimenov was
guardedly optimistic about the statement.


10. (U) Kazakhstan's election legislation is very close to
international standards, CEC chairman Onalsyn Zhumabekov
stated on October 5 in Astana. "We closely cooperate with
the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights. Kazakhstan took into consideration
recommendations of international organizations following
the election to parliament last year," Zhumabekov added.


Observers
--------------


11. (U) According to the CEC, about one thousand
observers from the OSCE and CIS will monitor the
presidential election. "We expect 36 long-term observers
and about 400 short-term observers from the OSCE Bureau on
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, and about the
same number of observers from the CIS," CEC representative
Tatyana Okhlopkova said at a meeting organized by NDI in
Astana on October 13. Accreditation of foreign observers
will proceed until November 28.


12. (U) At the same meeting, Okhlopkova accused the OSCE
of providing a biased assessment of the 2004 parliamentary
elections. "There is a group of countries in the OSCE
which scrutinize election shortcomings through a
magnifying glass and do not see the same flaws in other
countries." Okhlopkova referred to electoral systems in
Great Britain, where election campaigns are carried out by
municipal officials, and Norway, where ballots are counted
by law enforcement agencies. Okhlopkova also praised the
"Sailau" e-voting system used in Kazakhstan, claiming
other nations had criticized the system because they
envied Kazakhstan.


13. (SBU) Okhlopkova was echoing comments made on October
8 by CEC chairman Zhumabekov, who publicly criticized the
OSCE for sending observers from "one and the same
countries" to Kazakhstan. First Deputy Foreign Minister
Rakhat Aliyev, speaking at a Central Asian media
conference in Almaty on October 13, attempted to mute the
criticism by expressing his confidence in the high level
of professionalism and objectivity among OSCE observers.
Zhumabekov himself announced on October 14 that by
inviting all 55 member-states to send observers to
Kazakhstan, the OSCE had heeded his recommendation.

Survey of experts
--------------


14. (SBU) According to a poll of 30 political experts
conducted by the Eurasian Rating Agency, Nursultan
Nazarbayev will win 65.8% of votes in the first round of
the presidential race. Alikhan Baimenov and Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay will compete for second place, with 9.88% and
9.61% respectively. Eccentric MP Yerasyl Abylkasymov is
expected to come in fourth with 4.24%. Green movement
proponent Mels Yeleusizov will be fifth with 3.47%.
Senator Ualikhan Kaysarov will be sixth with 2.88%. The
rest of the candidates would each receive less than 1% of
the vote. During the survey more than 30 political experts


were questioned, including representatives of public
associations, political parties, analysts, sociologists,
officials and journalists. No one who was questioned had
doubts that Nazarbayev would win in the first round.

Concerns of Human Right Advocates
--------------


15. (U) On September 28, the Kazakhstan Bureau for Human
Rights and Rule of Law issued a statement voicing concern
over pressure on the opposition candidates and their
supporters. The statement called on the president to
provide for freedom of speech, peaceful assembly and the
right for political activities including opposition ones.

Almaty Police Seize Brochures with Draft Constitution
-------------- --------------


16. (U) On October 5, 30 uniformed police officers and 15
individuals in plain clothes arrived at a private home in
Almaty to seize brochures containing FJK's proposed draft
constitution. The owner of the house Aydar Kinayatoldin
and opposition activist Yermurat Bapi tried to resist the
seizure. The officers however produced a court order from
the Medeu district court of Almaty based on a complaint
from a man who said his picture had been used in the
publication without his permission, and seized 151,000
copies of the brochure. Later that same day, the police
returned and seized an additional 40,000 copies.

Unsanctioned Rally Leads to Arrests
--------------


17. (SBU) On October 12, FJK and Communist Party leader
Tulen Tokhtasynov was arrested in front of FJK
headquarters in Almaty as he was leaving for the airport
to fly to Astana to attend the Secretary's speech. Twenty
heavily armed police in riot gear arrested him on charges
of an administrative violation for participating in an
"unsanctioned rally" on October 8 in Almaty. (According
to FJK members, they applied for a permit for a rally and
when it was denied, they instead organized an outdoor
"meeting" between Senator Zauresh Battalova and 2000 of
her constituents.) Tokhtasynov was released later on
October 12 after paying a fine of 50,000 KZT ($375),and
attended the Secretary's October 13 speech in Astana.


18. (SBU) Legal proceedings have reportedly begun on the
same charges against other FJK leaders, including Bulat
Abilov, Oraz Zhandosov, Amyrzhan Kosanov, Gulzhan
Yergaliyeva and Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly. Despite
indications from the GOK that the arrest had been an
aberration, FJK leader Bulat Abilov was detained following
an October 17 press conference in Almaty. According to an
FJK press release, the detention occurred despite the fact
that the hearing in Abilov's case had been postponed until
October 18. He was reportedly taken to court.


Youth Activists Detained in Almaty
--------------


19. (U) On October 10, a group of 53 young people
participating in a conference organized by the FJK Youth
League and "Alga" were arrested as they marched to lay a
wreath on the Independence Memorial at the central square
of Almaty. They were kept at Bostandyk district police
office for over three hours. The activists claim that
they were harassed, intimidated and mistreated. The next
day 45 participants were tried; two received warnings, and
others received fines of up to 20,000 tenge ($150).

ORDWAY


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