KAZAKHSTAN: A/S FRIED,S MEETINGS WITH KAZAKHSTANI

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 003451

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: A/S FRIED,S MEETINGS WITH KAZAKHSTANI
OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES


Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: During meetings with Kazakhstani opposition
presidential candidates, A/S Fried heard several common
themes about Kazakhstan's differences from its neighboring
countries, the importance of strengthening its western
orientation, the need for political reform, and the toll that
corruption -- including at the highest levels -- takes on the
country. Ak Zhol leader Alikhan Baimenov came across as a
man with a strong desire to help bring about real change in
Kazakhstan, and bitter at not being chosen as the unified
opposition candidate. For a Just Kazakhstan leader
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay appeared confident in his support among
the electorate and focused on a clear series of steps to
bring about political reform. End summary.


2. (SBU) In separate meetings in Almaty on October 29, EUR
A/S Daniel Fried spoke with presidential candidates Alikhan
Baimenov (Ak Zhol) and Zharmakhan Tuyakbay (For a Just
Kazakhstan). Baimenov was accompanied by Burikhan
Nurmukhamedov, and Tuyakbay was accompanied by Tolegen
Zhukeyev. NSC Director David Merkel, DASD Jim MacDougall, SA
DAS John Gastright, Ambassador, DCM, POEC chief (notetaker),
and POL FSN (interpreter) also took part in the meetings.

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Baimenov: Running to Draw Votes away from Nazarbayev
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3. (SBU) Baimenov started off with a lengthy discourse on
Kazakhstan's general orientation and the regional context.
He stressed the importance of maintaining a Western
orientation, noting that Kazakhstan is a member not only of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) but also the
OSCE. Baimenov noted that Kazakhstan differs in many
important ways from its southern neighbors, including bearing
"less burden of history" and having a higher level of
education, a greater degree of openness, and a more diverse
population.


4. (C) Turning to politics, Baimenov told A/S Fried that he
and others were trying to persuade President Nazarbayev to
proceed with democratization. He does not deny the important
economic achievements under Nazarbayev's leadership, but sees
a fundamental contradiction between the government's stated
goal of a market economy and the current political system.
According to Baimenov, Nazarbayev understands that this
contradiction may eventually lead to a dead end. Nazarbayev
is experiencing an internal struggle between the desire to be
remembered favorably by history and the knowledge that
greater democratization will reveal his and his associates'
"personal problems" stemming from the privatization period.


5. (C) Baimenov described Kazakhstani society as divided into
three main groups politically. The first group, which
supports Nazarbayev, includes ethnic Kazakhs who see change
as a potential threat to independence, ethnic minorities who
see Nazarbayev as a guarantor of stability and their rights,
and owners of illegally privatized large industrial
enterprises who work against democratization. (Note:
Baimenov was undoubtedly referring to Aleksandr Mashkevich
and his associates. End note.) There is a second group who
oppose all political leaders. The third group is made up of
people who want democratization if there is a reasonable
alternative to the current power that would not lead to
destabilization. Baimenov said that this last group was Ak
Zhol's electoral base; if his party did not exist, they would
vote for the incumbent.


6. (C) The December 4 presidential elections will not be
fair, Baimenov predicted. He is concerned about what will
happen afterwards if there are falsifications, and about the
negative impact on the country's development. In response to
A/S Fried's question about the potential for a Karimov-style
crackdown, Baimenov said he did not believe that Nazarbayev
would act "on that scale." The readiness and resources
exist, however, and it is possible that those who advise
"strong measures" might win out. Baimenov said much will
depend on the actions of akims (regional leaders) and what
preventive measures they might take. Baimenov predicted that
in the event of unfair elections conflict could occur in
Almaty "on a scale like Bishkek, not Kiev."


7. (SBU) When asked about his political program, Baimenov
underscored the need for urgent political reforms. He
planned to convene a constitutional council to revise the
Constitution in accordance with the reforms he outlined
during his party congress speech. He would support a liberal

economy, including WTO membership. All state regulations
should be transparent. Baimenov also called for transparency
in contracts, as it reduces future political risk, but noted
that he was opposed to unilateral revision of existing deals.
He outlined a program to ensure fair relations between
employers and workers and to promote SME development.
Baimenov said he spoke to voters a great deal about the
problem of corruption, but did not offer details. Overall
Turkey would be his model of development, as another Turkic,
Muslim country wanting to move toward the West and democracy.



8. (SBU) Regarding relations with Russia, Baimenov said that
he would stress that democratization did not threaten the
Kazakhstan-Russia bilateral relationship. A/S Fried told
Baimenov that we stress to Russia that it is better for it to
have stable democratic neighbors than dictators or failed
states. The U.S. is interested in supporting stability
through economic and political reform; we do not see
ourselves in competition with Russia in this region.
Baimenov commented that if Russia openly supported
Nazarbayev's candidacy, some parts of society would not be
pleased.


9. (C) Noting that when he had met with NSD Director Merkel
recently in Washington Baimenov had been weighing the
personal cost of running for president, Merkel asked what had
made him decide to run. Baimenov explained that when he
speaks with voters he focuses on his desire to help change
the country for the better. The practical reason was the
fact that if he did not run, it would "ease the work" of the
authorities. Most of his Ak Zhol electoral base considered
Tuyakbay and the leadership of For a Just Kazakhstan (FJK)
too radical, and therefore would vote for Nazarbayev if
Baimenov did not run. Baimenov described his electorate as
people who want change without revolution, such as teachers,
doctors, young people, small business owners, and some older
voters. He commented bitterly that FJK had made two serious
mistakes when it decided that its presidential candidate
could not be from a party, and that it would work
aggressively against any other potential candidate from the
democratic camp.


10. (SBU) A/S Fried told Baimenov that one of his main
messages to the GOK would be the importance of fair elections
and progress on democratization. Baimenov concurred that
forward movement is the most important thing: "we don't
compare ourselves with the West to gauge our progress; we
compare the situation today with what it was yesterday and
what it will be tomorrow." He added that he was running for
president with the full realization that life does not stop
with the elections; his goal is to change society, not to
replace one group of oligarchs with another.

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Tuyakbay: Running to Win
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11. (C) Tuyakbay noted that, while Kazakhstan differs from
the other countries of Central Asia in many ways, they are
united by their leaders' strong desire to hold onto power.
Kazakhstan is losing some of the gains made after
independence as a result of efforts to preserve the current
authoritarian regime. Tuyakbay told A/S Fried that no branch
of government is able to criticize the president, who is
completely isolated and does what he wants. Tuyakbay
emphasized the level of corruption in the Nazarbayev family,
including the theft of businesses and crooked privatizations.
He said the fact that a single person can not effectively
manage an entire government system had lead to the corruption
of the whole system. All branches work to protect the status
quo. According to Tuyakbay, the people and the government
exist independently of each other. He maintained that people
now feared to speak out.


12. (SBU) Asked by A/S Fried what his program would be if he
were elected president, Tuyakbay said he had no doubt that he
would win -- "if not in December, then within two years."
FJK has a clear political and economic program to improve
governance. The first step would be the adoption of a new
Constitution to limit the powers of the president and create
a real parliamentary- presidential system. The president
would be limited to a single five-year term, the government
would be under the control of parliament, and regional
executive bodies would be elected. Tuyakbay highlighted the
absence of an independent judiciary as the most pressing
democratic deficit; he would have parliament provide
financing directly to the judiciary to increase its

independence. He would also create a Constitutional Court.


13. (SBU) On the economic front, Tuyakbay called for openness
and transparency of contracts, tenders, and all other
contacts between government officials and business. Tuyakbay
said that while there would be no revision of existing energy
contracts, new contracts would include additional
transparency measures and equal rights for all parties. If
elected, he would review the privatizations of large
metallurgical and other firms and re-privatize at market
prices those that were found to have been sold off illegally.
According to Tuyakbay, many metallurgical firms ended up in
the hands of the Nazarbayev family or oligarchs such as
Shodiyev and Ibragimov. They would be eligible to bid when
the firms were auctioned off. Tuyakbay highlighted
diversification of the economy and the development of
industry as pressing economic goals; widespread corruption is
the biggest obstacle to both.


14. (C) Tuyakbay somewhat laughingly described his electoral
base as "everyone not in Nazarbayev's immediate circle." He
claimed that a big part of society was dissatisfied with the
status quo. FJK looked to the middle class for most of its
support, as they suffer the most from corruption. Tuyakbay
claimed that FJK's polls showed he would receive 77-78% in
fair election. (Comment: This claim is simply not credible.
End Comment) A/S Fried noted that he understood Tuyakbay
was not as well known in the regions as he was in Almaty, and
asked how he planned to increase his visibility. Tuyakbay
said that FJK's 250,000 members would be going door-to-door
across the country to campaign for him. The seven opposition
newspapers were now printing 650,000 copies a week, 80% of
which were making it to readers despite the authorities'
attempts to confiscate them. Access to television would be
crucial, Tuyakbay added; as of right now he could not get any
coverage on TV or radio, even negative. The Nazarbayev
family controls 90% of broadcast media. Channel 31, although
ostensibly independent, was controlled by Security Council
chairman Utemuratov.


15. (SBU) Zhukeyev predicted that Tuyakbay would benefit from
very high support from ethnic Kazakhs, whose poverty rate is
higher than the average. He added that FJK's
western-oriented foreign policy platform would appeal to a
large number of voters who are not pleased by the current
pro-Russian, pro-Chinese position. (Comment: Polling,
including USG polling, suggests the opposite: Russia is far
more highly regarded by the populace than the U.S. or other
western countries.)


16. (C) A/S Fried told Tuyakbay that the U.S. was confident
that authoritarianism would not win out in Central Asia. We
expected Karimov to be isolated. President Nazarbayev still
had the opportunity to leave a positive legacy as the leader
who brought Kazakhstan to sovereignty and development. The
U.S. will encourage him to make the tough decisions to do
this. Tuyakbay responded by underscoring the need for as
many international election observers as possible to ensure
thorough coverage and to balance the "sympathetic" observers
the GOK was actively recruiting.
ORDWAY


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