Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY3447
2005-09-26 15:18:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,

Tags:  PGOV KZ POLITICAL 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS ALMATY 003447 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,
SEPTEMBER 26

REF: Almaty 2985

UNCLAS ALMATY 003447

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,
SEPTEMBER 26

REF: Almaty 2985


1. (U) This is the second in a series of weekly election
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
the local press and media.

--------------
Would-be Candidates for President
--------------


2. (U) As of September 21, the Central Election Commission
(CEC) had received 12 applications from would-be
candidates: current President Nursultan Nazarbayev;
Senator Uyalikhan Kaysarov; the leader of the opposition
block "For a Just Kazakhstan," Zharmakhan Tuyakbay;
businessman Oten Salim Sagyndykuly; member of the Mazhilis
(lower house of Parliament) and People's Communist Party
Yerasyl Abylkasymov; the leader of the "Attan Kazakhstan"
anti-nuclear movement, Amanatay Asylbek; lawyer Mekemtas
Tleulesov; an unemployed self-nominee Meyramkul
Kozhagulova (female); a second female self-nominee, Maya
Karamayeva; President of "KazAgro" National Federation of
Farmers Baltabay Rakhimzhanov; former wrestling coach
Zhaksybay Bazilbayev; and green movement activist Mels
Yeleusizov. Both Karamayeva and Kozhagulova failed their
Kazakh language tests.


3. (U) After passing the language test and meeting other
pre-registration requirements, candidates must collect
approximately 90,000 voters' signatures in order to be
officially registered. (Specifically, to be registered a
candidate must collect signatures equal to 1% of the total
number of registered voters nationwide. To ensure broad
geographic support, he or she must collect the signatures
of at least 1% of registered voters in two-thirds of all
oblasts.)

--------------
Baimenov Jumps in at the Last Minute
--------------


4. (SBU) On September 25, the Ak Zhol party nominated
Alikhan Baimenov to run for the presidency, thereby
dashing FJK's hopes of maintaining unity among the
opposition. Baimenov called on all democratic
organizations to unite their efforts, saying "We have one
opponent - the current power. We have one goal -
Kazakhstan's prosperity. And we should hold together."
With his relatively high profile in the regions, Baimenov
is expected to draw votes away from Tuyakbay.

--------------
Control over the Media Tightens
--------------


5. (SBU) According to FJK contacts, due to pressure from
Kazakhstani authorities on September 26 the printing house
Vremya Print announced that it would no longer publish

opposition newspapers. As a result the publication of
several opposition papers such as Epokha, Soz, Zhuma
Times, and Svoboda Slova will be halted at least
temporarily. FJK representatives claim that Kazakhstani
law forbids printing newspapers outside the country, so
they cannot use the Freedom House press in Bishkek.


6. (U) The Prosecutor General issued a statement on
September 17 warning media owners, editors-in-chief,
reporters and distributors of media products that
prosecutors are tightening up their oversight. The
statement noted an increase in the number of publications
discrediting high government officials or people who
intend to become government officials, along with slander,
provocative and false information, and the publication of
secrets that are protected by law. It also charged that

SIPDIS
illegal production of media takes place. The statement
reiterated that it is illegal to encourage through
propaganda the violent change of the constitutional order;
the destruction of Kazakhstan's integrity; the undermining
of the country's security; war, social, racial, ethnic,
religious, tribal superiority; or the cult of cruelty and
violence. It is also illegal to publish or disseminate
materials which knowingly discredit the honor, dignity and
reputation of a candidate to the post of President of the
Republic of Kazakhstan.



7. (U) On September 20, the "Journalists in Distress"
fund issued a statement reporting increasing pressure on
the opposition press on the run-up to the presidential
election. According to the president of the fund, Rozlana
Taukina, they have received complaints from five different
organizations about ungrounded refusals by the Ministry of
Culture, Information and Sports to register mass media
outlets.

--------------
CEC Approves Rules for the Election Campaign
--------------


8. (U) On September 16, the CEC met to approve the rules
for campaigning. According to Vladimir Foos, CEC
secretary, the draft rules are based on those used in last

SIPDIS
year's Mazhilis elections. Some clarifying points and
definitions were added. The rules regulate the procedure
for election commissions to publish their statements in
media, refutation statements, scheduling of publications
and debates by candidates. Among the points clarified in
the new rules is the requirement that the CEC will select,
pursuant to legislation on government contracts, the media
outlets that will carry candidate campaign materials
funded by government resources. The rules will be
registered with the Justice Ministry and then published.


9. (U) At its September 16 meeting, the CEC also specified
that candidates would receive 94,000 tenge (approximately
$700) from the government for transportation. Each
candidate will receive a total of 5.5 million tenge
($41,000) from the government for the election campaign.
Candidates nominated by public organizations are entitled
to have a campaign fund composed of a maximum of: personal
funds (46 million tenge, or $342,000); contribution of the
public organization that nominated the candidate (64.4
million tenge, or $480,000); and voluntary donations by
citizens and organizations (138 million tenge, or over $1
million). The total election campaign fund of a candidate
nominated by a public organization can therefore not
exceed 248.4 million tenge ($1.85 million). The election
fund of a self-nominated candidate cannot exceed 184
million tenge ($1.37 million),including a maximum of 46
million tenge ($340,000) of personal funds and 138 million
tenge (slightly over $1 million) in voluntary donations
from citizens and organizations.

--------------
E-voting
--------------


10. (U) The CEC also announced plans to use the e-voting
system Sailau, which it says was upgraded and simplified
after last year's parliamentary elections. The CEC stated
that due to the OSCE's calls for gradual implementation of
e-voting it would not be used in all polling stations.
The plan is to use it at only 1627 precincts, or 20% of
all precincts compared to 10% in last year's elections.
Voters would be free to choose between electronic and
traditional paper-ballot voting.

--------------
Nazarbayev Launches Web Site
--------------


11. (SBU) In a move raising questions about the use of
administrative resources, the Presidential Administration
launched a new web site on September 21 dedicated to
Nursultan Nazarbayev. The site, www.akorda.kz, has 11
sections and more than 60 headings and contains
information about Kazakhstan and the president in three
languages - Kazakh, Russian and English. Users of the
site will be able to write a letter to President
Nazarbayev, read his books and view photos.

--------------
Comments from the Presidential Administration
--------------


12. (SBU) Presidential political advisor Yermukhamed
Yertysbayev, whose comments often foreshadow GOK policy
shifts, shared his views on the upcoming presidential
election on September 20 with Interfax. Yertysbayev
predicted that the winner would receive at least 70% of


the vote, but declined to name the winner as "the law
prohibits campaigning before October 25." "The person who
comes in second will become the national opposition leader
and will have good chances of success during the next
presidential election." Yertysbayev speculated that Ak
Zhol leader Alikhan Baimenov, who at that time had not yet
announced his candidacy, was hesitating because he feared
coming in third and "being consigned to political
oblivion." Yertysbayev commented that, in contrast to
Baimenov, Tuyakbay was not a well-known and popular figure
in the regions. Yertysbayev said that there was no need
for the President to participate in pre-election TV
debates. "If the President's rating was 51% and his
principal opponent had 49%, then Mr. Nazarbayev would
participate. In the current situation when his rating is
over 80%, Nazarbayev's participation in TV debates would
lead to a decrease in electoral support. If Tyson or
Hollyfield fought against an amateur, would it enhance
their prestige?" Yertysbayev stressed that the
authorities are interested in holding fair and transparent
election and "as the chances of success are so good, it is
in our interest that the maximum number of international
observers arrive in the country to monitor the election."

--------------
International observers
--------------


13. (U) During a September 20 meeting in Warsaw with OSCE
ODIHR Director Christian Strohal, CEC Chairman Onalsyn
Zhumabekov formally invited the OSCE to monitor the
upcoming presidential elections. The Kazakhstani MFA
circulated a diplomatic note to all embassies and
international organizations on September 16 inviting
foreign observers and mass media. EU Commissioner
Benita Ferrero-Waldner reportedly told FM Tokayev during
their meeting in New-York that the EU would send an
observation mission.


14. (U) The opposition "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement
sent an open letter to pro-presidential political parties,
calling on them to join FJK in inviting observers from the
Carter Center to monitor the upcoming presidential
election. The appeal stressed that "the Carter Center is
a leading non-governmental institution on professional
monitoring and objective analysis, especially in
transition countries."

--------------
Harassment of the opposition
--------------


15. (SBU) The opposition group Alga, which contains many
members of the liquidated DCK and is still trying to
register as a party, reports that since July the
authorities have stepped up pressure. Measures have
included mass detentions of party activists, seizures of
party advertising materials, and prosecutions. 113
activists and members of the party advertising team have
reportedly been detained throughout the country; 52 have
allegedly been subjected to psychological pressure and
threatened with assault and battery. Five activists have
been arrested and 15 have received administrative warning
and have been fined. Newspapers and other publications
have been seized, including Azat (640 copies),Set KZ
(12,000 copies),Pravda (5,012 copies),Zhuma-Times (2,770
copies),Apta KZ (178 copies),Almaty-info (126 copies),
newspaper digest supplements (3,500 copies),and Alga
advertising materials (more than 8,500 copies). Alga
activists also report that 826 applications filed by
people wanting to join the party have been illegally
seized. Alga has filed dozens of complaints with the
Procuracy and MOJ, but claims to have received "trivial"
responses.


16. (U) The FJK press service reported on September 12
that activist Bekdulla Saduakasov was arrested in
Kyzylorda Oblast while receiving newspapers delivered by a
commuter bus. See reftel for details of other FJK
arrests.

ORDWAY


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