KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,

UNCLAS ALMATY 003374

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP,
SEPTEMBER 19

REF: Almaty 3295


1. (U) This is the first in a series of weekly election
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from
the local press and media.

The Gloves Are Off
--------------


2. (U) "I am determined to run for the presidency," was
the headline of an open letter to President Nazarbayev
published August 17 by "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK)
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. The statement was issued in
response to a letter to Tuyakbay from the Almaty City
procurator, warning against illegal pre-election
campaigning. In response to the warning, Tuyakbay accused
Nazarbayev, saying "I consider this letter as proof of
your inability to face honest political competition. Your
trips to the regions represent a pre-election show, when
huge budgetary funds are spent to depict the `people's
happiness,' thousands of working people and schoolchildren
are mobilized. Judging by the number of populist
promises, your [February] address to the nation was a pre-
election statement. State-controlled newspapers and TV
channels unrestrainedly glorify your `exceptional nature'
and `irreplaceability.' Your Akims and your information-
propagandist teams, recruited from state officials,
agitate people for your candidacy."


3. (U) The statement continued "The system of power
created by you organically rejects free and fair
elections. This is why officials and criminals with
impunity attack members of the `For a Just Kazakhstan'
movement, beat people, and instigate disorder and
provocations, as in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Shymkent and Atyrau."
It concluded with a statement: "I will take part in the
election to challenge the authoritarian and corrupt system
of power you have created, to stop arbitrariness and
lawlessness in our country, and to say `NO' to the unfair
economy, which made a group of cronies extremely reach
after theft of national resources and plunged the other
citizens into poverty."


4. (SBU) Media coverage of Tuyakbay's statement was
uneven. Only a handful of opposition news outlets covered
it, and many of them focused only on the statement of his
intention to run, omitting his accusations against
Nazarbayev.

Applications and Tests of Candidates
--------------


5. (U) As of September 14, four candidates have filed
their applications for registration: the current president
Nursultan Nazarbayev, senator Ualikhan Kaysarov,
opposition leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and independent
candidate/political unknown Oten Salim Sagyndykuly. The
CEC has announced that all four have met the requirements
for registration, including passing their Kazakh language
tests. The next step in the registration process involves
collection of signatures of support; candidates must
obtain the signatures of at least one percent of the
voters in each oblast.


6. (SBU) When Tuyakbay filed his nomination documents with
the CEC on September 12, accompanied by Bulat Abilov and
Tolen Tokhtasynov, he presented a copy of FJK's resolution
on the need for changes to the election process. He
stressed the need for the composition of the CEC to be
changed to include representatives of candidates running
in elections. Tuyakbay then met with CEC Chairman Onalsyn
Zhumabekov (who he was procurator in Mangistau Oblast when
Tuyakbay was Procurator General) behind the closed doors.
According to Tuyakbay, he raised some issues about the
ongoing election campaign.

Other Likely Candidates
--------------


7. (U) On September 13 the press service of the Ak Zhol
party, headed by Alikhan Baimenov, reported on the
meetings of its branches around the country where party
activists discussed the upcoming presidential election.
According to the report, in almost every region party


leaders urged Baimenov to run. It is likely that the
September 20 Ak Zhol national congress will nominate
Baimenov as a candidate.


8. (U) The Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan (CPPK)
plans to nominate eccentric MP Yerasyl Abylkasymov as its
candidate during its September 17 congress in Almaty. The
57-year old Abylkasymov is an active advocate of the
government in Parliament and a harsh critic of the West.
He initiated the recent broad investigation of
international organizations working in Kazakhstan.
Abylkasymov has a university degree in medicine. He was
elected to Mazhilis (lower house) in 2001 and reelected in
fall 2004. Abylkasymov has been a member of the CPPK
since its founding in spring 2004.


9. (U) Other minor candidates who have announced their
intention to run include former wrestling coach Zhaksybay
Bazilbayev, who withdrew from the 1999 presidential
elections in favor of Nazarbayev, and chairman of the
Tabigat (Nature) green movement Mels Yeleusizov, who ran
unsuccessfully for Parliament in 1992, 1994, 1995 and

1999.

President Warns Against Interference from Abroad...
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) President Nazarbayev has spoken out several
times to warn against violations of the law in the
upcoming elections. Some of his comments have directly
accused the opposition, such as his September 7 remarks to
the press that he assumed the opposition had asked former
President Clinton for money, despite the fact that foreign
funding of political parties is illegal. Speaking about
recently-rejected NGO legislation at the Civic Forum on
September 12, Nazarbayev stated "They [parliament] have
seen the dangers that arose in neighboring countries when
foreign NGOs insolently pumped in money and destabilized
society. The state was defenseless against this and what
is happening now in these countries you all know very
well."


11. (SBU) In comments to the media after taking his Kazakh
language test at the CEC on September 14, Nazarbayev
underscored the importance of September 10 decree on
transparency and fairness of the upcoming elections. He
highlighted the fact that the decree tasks law enforcement
with making sure that candidates, their representatives,
and international and local NGOs all observe the law. "We
won't allow any interference into the country's internal
affairs via funding to political parties and public
organizations, or via support to any candidate by
international or local NGOs - it is banned in our
Constitution," Nazarbayev said. He echoed the same idea
in his September 14 remarks at the Asar party congress,
saying that Kazakhstan will not let foreign NGOs violate
its laws, and that counter-actions against such violations
shall not be considered as a violation of anyone's rights.


... And Issues Decree on Free and Fair Elections
-------------- ---


12. (U) As reported reftel, on September 9 President
Nazarbayev issued a decree providing for "Measures on
Realization of Citizens' Electoral Rights." The measures
include realization of citizens' constitutional rights to
elect and to be elected, timely financing the election,
prompt response to complaints about violations of the
election legislation, assistance provided by local akims
to election commissions with compiling voters' lists,
accreditation of foreign observers and representatives of
mass media, and the maintenance of security and order by
the Interior Ministry.

Disagreement among Pro-Presidential Parties
--------------


13. (SBU) There have been some signs of discord among pro-
presidential parties. Channel 31 reported that acting
Otan chairman B. Zhumagulov claimed that he had been named
Chairman of the President's campaign headquarters.
However, other sources close to the Presidential
Administration reported that other politicians, including
Dariga Nazarbayeva, are being considered for this post. In


the meantime, all five major pro-presidential parties --
Otan, Asar, DPK, Agrarian and Civic -- have sent
representatives to work at campaign HQ.

Bloc Forms to Support Nazarbayev
--------------


14. (U) At its September 14 congress, the Asar party
-headed by first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva - voted
unanimously to support Nazarbayev's intention to run for
reelection and to join the "People's Coalition of
Kazakhstan" electoral bloc. President Nazarbayev attended
the congress; in his remarks praised Asar as a modern
party with "good prospects."

"For a Just Kazakhstan" Demands Fair Elections
-------------- -


15. (U) At it September 10 congress in Almaty where it
nominated Tuyakbay, the "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement
adopted two resolutions demanding fair and free
presidential elections and the immediate release of
Galymzhan Zhakiyanov. The resolution on elections calls
for an end to harassment, intimidation and repression of
opposition activists all over the country and for freedom
of speech and mass media. It also demands equal access
for opposition forces to state TV channels Khabar and
Kazakhstan-1, the inclusion of opposition representatives
in election commissions at every level, the abolition of
e-voting, the participation of local and international
election observers, and an end to the use of
"administrative resources" to put pressure on voters.


16. (SBU) In a September 14 interview with Kommersant
newspaper, Tuyakbay warned Russia not to count on
Nazarbayev. "[Russia] should count not on an individual,
but on the country as a whole. Tomorrow if the United
States puts pressure on [Nazarbayev] through `Kazakhgate,'
nobody can predict how he will act."

Survey of Electorate
--------------


17. (SBU) The turnout in the upcoming presidential
elections will be 73.9%, according to a poll conducted by
the FJK-affiliated Center for Social Technologies (CST) in
30 cities and oblasts. The CST questioned 2,000 people of
various ethnic origins. According to the survey, 11.8%
will not vote and 11.2% have not made up their minds.
More than 80% of rural residents plan to vote. The
highest numbers of people not planning to vote are in
Astana, Almaty, and Atyrau Oblast (from 19 to 28%). In
Almaty, 56% of residents plan to vote and 14% have not
decided.


18. (SBU) According to a late August poll by the
Association of Political Scientists (ASIP),57.1% of city
residents and 64.2% of rural residents expressed their
willingness to vote. One-third of the 2,513 people
questioned were ready to support Nazarbayev, and less than
3% expressed support for opposition candidate Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay.

Several New NGOs to Monitor Elections
--------------


19. (U) On September 5, a group of well-known human rights
advocates, journalists, and sociologists announced the
creation of the "For a Fair Election" election monitoring
group. Kazakhstani Human Rights Bureau head Yevgeniy
Zhovtis stated "We belong to neither the opposition nor
the government." Other well-known participants include
independent journalist Sergey Duvanov, political scientist
Sabit Zhusupov, and journalist Ibrash Nusupbayev. Duvanov
stated that in addition to monitoring the elections, the
group will examine why people do not want to vote.
Duvanov also said that the movement would seek grants from
foreign organizations in order to remain independent of
all sides.


20. (U) Fourteen local NGOs have united to form the
"League of Kazakhstan Voters," with the aim of impartial
monitoring the upcoming presidential election. Natalya
Chumakova, director of the Almaty Center for the Support
of Democracy and wife of DCK activist Petr Svoik,


announced the creation of the new organization at a
September 13 press conference in Almaty. The league
intends to collect donations, but not from individuals or
organizations affiliated with political parties.


21. (U) On September 15, another group of well-known
public figures announced the creation of a public
committee to monitor the upcoming elections. This group
is thought to be closer to the GOK than the others noted
above. Participants include well-known poet and
Kazakhstani representative to UNESCO Olzhas Suleymenov,
Senator Kuanysh Sultanov, Director of the National Library
Murat Auezov, Director of the Uighur Theater Murat
Akhmadiev, President of "Channel-31" Media Holding
Armanzhan Baytasov, Chairman of Cinematography Union Igor
Vovnyanko, Editor-in-chief of the Central Asia Monitor
weekly newspaper Bigeldy Gabdullin, and President of the
Academy of Nutrition Turegeldy Sharmanov.

ORDWAY


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