KAZAZKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 003301

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELLING)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAZKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO
PARLIAMENT--WE ARE ON THE RIGHT PATH

REF: ALMATY 3245

Classified By: DCM Mark Asquino for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev
unofficially kicked off his reelection campaign in a
September 1 speech to the fall session of parliament. The
President gave a glowing review of social goals he set out in
his February address to the nation. His overall theme,
stability and market-driven prosperity, was tempered by a
two-part scheme for democratization that largely centered on
decentralization and judicial reform. He reiterated
Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in 2009, develop its oil
industry and diversify its economy, enter the WTO, and
continue a multi-vector foreign policy. First Deputy of the
Presidential Administration Marat Tazhin repeated
Nazarbayev's democrazation pitch in a September 5 statement.
End Summary

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Stability and a Chicken in Every Pot
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2. (SBU) On the hustings all summer, Nazarbayev said that
what people told him they wanted most was prosperity and
stability. "What are the people's main...concerns...improving
the standard for living...and the stability of society." He
lost no time in conjuring the ghosts of Andijan and Bishkek,
adding that "everyone (I spoke with) is concerned with the
need to avoid the unrest...in some neighboring...states."


3. (U) The President ticked off social programs and budgetary
support that either were increased or commenced since his
February address and should be completed by 2007. The goal,
according to him, is to build a "socially-oriented market
economy." Some of the reforms include the following:

--increase in pensions, which now average just under $100;
--more money for the disabled;
--low income housing for 1,500 households and mortgage
support;
--doubling student stipends and increase of 25% in state
support for education;
--mandatory health insurance and a 30% growth in state health
care spending;
--3,000 "Bolashak" stipends for foreign study.

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Ownership Society
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4. (U) For Nazarbayev, ownership, private property, and free
markets are the best antidotes to instability and chaos: "The
success of our economic--and especially political
programs--depends on strengthening the owner class, which
represents a middle class that is know forming." To do that,
the president proposed the following programs:

--reform of the tax code to help small businessmen;
--10 billion tenge support for the "Fund to Develop Small
Business";
--creating an "agribusiness" sector to prepare for WTO
accession;
--WTO accession;
--shedding the non-core functions of state enterprises;
--diversifying the raw materials based economy through the
"cluster strategy" (expanding value-added side of production);
--market driven development of hydrocarbons that will result
in 2 mb/d in exports by 2010 and 3 mb/d by 2015.

He also underscored Kazakhstan's commitment to contract
sanctity and, with an eye on growing oil production, its "new
role in securing international energy stability."

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"Harmonizing Democratic Restructuring"
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5. (U) The President repeated democracy themes he raised in
his February address to the nation, while also outlining a
two-stage "National Program of Democratic Reform" between
2006-2011. He also announced the creation of a government
commission on democratic reforms that he himself plans to
chair. His program includes:


--Appointment of certain, "non-power" ministers and
ambassadors after consultation with parliament;
--"remove the shortcomings of the electoral system";
--draft law on trial by jury;
--more accountability by appointed officials, especially
akims;
--decentralization, including more power to locally elected
legislative bodies,"Maslikhat";
--building of civil society, especially with the aid of NGOs;
--increasing the size and functions of parliament, including
in forming a cabinet;
--fighting corruption;
--increasing the independence of the court system.


6. (U) Nevertheless, Nazarbayev stated that democratic
reforms must "evolve in harmony with the specific features
and traditions of a multinational and multiconfessional
society." In a nod to regime hard-liners, Nazarbayev said
that democratization opponents who fear instability "must be
considered as seriously as all others."


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More of the Same in Foreign Policy
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6. (U) Nazarbayev underscored Kazakhstan's "multi-vector"
foreign policy and pledged to seek good relations with
Russia, the U.S (including support for Iraq),China, and the
E.U. The president said that "Our foreign policy
priorities..remain constant."


7. (U) He also restated Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in

2009. Nazarbayev said that he had tasked his Presidential
Administration to prepare the country's institutions for the
task, especially concerning democratization and building
civil society. He also called on parliament to ratify all
treaties that deal with human rights, such as the
International Convention on Civil and Political Rights and
the Convenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights.

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GOK SPIN
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8. (U) In a September 5 statement, First Deputy of the
Presidential Administration Marat Tazhin repeated the
president's call for democratic reform. On the
president-friendly "Khabar" television network, Tazhin
announced that Kazakhstan "was on the threshold of systematic
political reform." He said that for the first time the
president had "articulated" that "the main vector of
development for Kazakhstan is liberalization." Most
importantly, he hinted that Nazarbayev might sit down with
the opposition: "he is ready to discuss questions of
political reform with various political forces in our
society."


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The Opposition's Take
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9. (C) On the margins of his meeting with former President
Clinton (reftel),opposition presidential candidate
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay commented he did not expect Nazarbayev's
promise of political reform to amount to anything. "We don't
need another commission," he said; "we all know what changes
are needed." Tuyakbay added that he did not believe the
commission would begin its work until after the presidential
election, "that is, if Nazarbayev wins."



10. (C) Comment: While the opposition's skepticism is
understandable, given Nazarbayev's record, we are encouraged
by his statements on political reform and his willingness to
sit down at the table with the opposition. Post will press
the GOK to back up these positive words with real action.
ORDWAY


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