KAZAKHSTAN: MAZHILIS CALLS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,

UNCLAS ALMATY 003295

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-
HELBLING)

USOSCE FOR J. DUNLOP AND R. BARBER

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: MAZHILIS CALLS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,
CANDIDATES NOMINATED

REF: A. Almaty 3047, B. Almaty 2985, C. Almaty 3245, D.

Almaty 1736


1. (SBU) Summary: With the September 7 announcement by the
Mazhilis that presidential elections will be held December
4, Kazakhstani political parties have begun to nominate
their candidates. President Nazarbayev used his acceptance
speech to highlight his success in managing the economy and
outline plans for further reform. "For a Just Kazakhstan"
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay lashed out at the GOK for
corruption and distorted statistics which paint a too-rosy
view of the Kazakhstani economy. He outlined a series of
populist proposals, including re-nationalizing certain state
enterprises and distributing oil tax revenues directly to
the public. A September 11 presidential decree setting out
government responsibilities increases the mandate of the
procuracy to oversee the campaign and elections. End
Summary.

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Presidential Elections Set for December 4
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2. (U) On September 7, the Mazhilis (lower house of
Parliament) called presidential elections for December 4,

2005. As reported Ref A, the announcement by the Mazhilis
was a formality following the Constitutional Council's
ruling on the date. The official announcement cleared the
way for parties to begin nominating candidates formally on
September 8. The nomination period will end on October 3.
Formal CEC registration will take place October 3-24. The
election campaign will begin on October 25 and end on
December 2. Voting will take place on December 4 from 7:00
to 20:00. Territorial election commissions must report
results to the CEC by December 7, the CEC must confirm and
announce the official results by December 11, and the CEC
must publish the results by December 14.

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Otan Nominates Nazarbayev; Bloc to Support
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3. (U) The Otan party, of which President Nazarbayev is the
honorary chairman, held an extraordinary congress in Almaty
on September 9 to nominate Nazarbayev as its candidate. In
accepting the nomination, Nazarbayev highlighted the
modernization program outlined in his February address to
the nation. He emphasized the need for political
modernization, but offered no specific proposals.
Nazarbayev spoke in most detail about the need for continued
economic development through diversification. Otan
submitted Nazarbayev's nomination documents to the Central
Election Commission (CEC) on September 12. According to
press reports the CEC immediately announced that the
documents were correctly prepared.


4. (U) The Otan party congress also decided to form a bloc
with Dariga Nazarbayeva's Asar party to support Nazarbayev's
candidacy. The bloc, to be called the "People's Coalition
of Kazakhstan," is also expected to include the Civic,
Agrarian, Democratic Peoples (DPK),and Communist People's
(CPK) parties. Nazarbayeva spoke in favor of the bloc at a
September 8 press conference with acting Otan chair
Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov. Asar is expected to formally approve
the creation of the bloc at its September 14 congress in
Astana.

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"For a Just Kazakhstan" Nominates Tuyakbay
--------------


5. (U) The "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) opposition movement
(Refs B and C) held its congress on September 10 to nominate
movement leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay as its presidential
candidate. The event, which proceeded smoothly, was
attended by all leading opposition figures except Alikhan


Baimenov, leader of the rump Ak Zhol party. The congress
selected former DCK member-turned-Communist Tulen
Tokhtasynov to run Tuyakbay's campaign headquarters, and
True Ak Zhol leader Bulat Abilov to head the electoral
campaign. Tuyakbay submitted his application to the CEC on
September 12, at which time he met with CEC chair Onalsyn
Zhumabekov to clarify registration and campaign rules.


6. (SBU) FJK invited the Embassy to send an observer to the
congress, following up by phone several times to ensure that
someone would attend. (Note: This was most likely due to
the violence that has plagued previous FJK events; see Ref
D.) According to FJK leader Amyrzhan Kosanov, the movement
was refused access by several potential venues. As a
location still had not been identified the night before the
congress, delegates were instructed to meet at FJK
headquarters at 9:30 am on Saturday to be bussed to the
venue. Outgoing DCK senator Zauresh Battalova told POEC
chief on September 10 that FJK leaders had been in
"negotiations" with unspecified GOK authorities until late
the previous evening, seeking approval for a venue and a
guarantee of security.


7. (SBU) In his acceptance speech, Tuyakbay claimed that
economic conditions in Kazakhstan were worse than the GOK
admitted, due to a distorted definition of the poverty line.
He called for the dismantlement of the "monopolistic clan
economy," and for measures to increase social protection and
reduce the gap between rich and poor. He also announced
plans to support the development of small- and medium-sized
enterprises and to address unemployment. Highlighting the
need for fair conditions for farmers, Tuyakbay called for a
moratorium on the sale of farmland.


8. (SBU) Somewhat alarmingly, Tuyakbay called for the re-
nationalization of "illegally privatized" state-owned
enterprises in the areas of natural resources, natural
monopolies, government facilities in Almaty, and extra-large
land plots. The properties would then be privatized again
"fairly." Tuyakbay announced plans to begin distributing
50% of taxes coming from the extractive industries to the
public, beginning in 2006. He said that state owned energy
company KazMuniGaz (KMG) will be ordered to supply the
domestic fuel market fully, at "fair prices." Tuyakbay said
his government would work to create one million new jobs,
and would push for fundamental changes to the tax code. It
would also curtail the construction of new government
buildings in Astana. Tuyakbay promised to increase funding
for pensioners dramatically, to double the health care
budget, to increase access to higher education, and to
allocate $100 million per year to support teaching of the
Kazakh language.

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Other Candidates
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8. (U) At the moment, independent senator Ualikhan Kaisarov
is the only other candidate to have registered for the
elections. In a September 9 Interfax interview, Kaisarov
praised Nazarbayev for having done much for Kazakhstan. He
criticized the team around Nazarbayev as "excessively
corrupt," and claimed that "[Nazarbayev's] team opposes
whatever progressive ideas the president suggests."
Kaisarov concluded that the main task was to "change
[Nazarbayev's] team," and the only way to do that is to
choose a new president.


9. (U) Ak Zhol is widely expected to nominate its co-
chairman Alikhan Baimenov at its September 20 congress in
Almaty. In his public comments to date, however, Baimenov
has remained noncommittal.

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Presidential Decree on Conduct of Elections
--------------



10. (U) On September 10, official Kazakhstanskaya Pravda
published a decree on "Measures on the Fulfillment of
Electoral Rights of Citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan"
signed by President Nazarbayev on September 9. The decree,
which is being characterized by the GOK as an effort to
ensure "free, fair, and competitive" presidential elections,
directs:

-- the CEC to ensure citizens' rights to vote and be
elected;
-- the government to provide adequate financing;
-- the procuracy to strengthen its oversight of the
electoral process and to react promptly to complaints and
violations;
-- akims to ensure accurate voter lists and support local
electoral commissions;
-- the Ministry of Culture, Information, and Sport to ensure
equal access to the media for all candidates;
-- the CEC to accredit foreign election observers and media;
-- the Ministry of Justice to expedite the issuance of ID
cards and passports and the registration of candidates'
election funds; and
-- the Ministry of the Interior, along with akims, to ensure
social order and security during the campaign.

The decree also urges political parties and other social
organizations to ensure control over election-related
events. Unfortunately, there was nothing in the decree
ordering presidentially-appointed akims not to abuse
administrative resources to support the President's
election.


11. (U) Speaking at an NGO forum on September 12, Nazarbayev
stressed that the decree gave law enforcement the task of
making sure that NGOs obey the law and that there is no
foreign interference.

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Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Comment: While most observers still expect
significant flaws in the conduct of presidential elections,
the process has proceeded well thus far. The fact that FJK
was able to hold its nominating congress with no violence or
other provocation was a positive development, and by no
means a foregone conclusion. President Nazarbayev's decree
and his public comments about the need for free and fair
elections are also steps in the right direction. However,
his September 12 remarks about the expanded role of the
procuracy may foreshadow another period of rising tension
between the GOK and NGOs. The application of the decree,
candidate registration, access to the media, and the
potential misuse of administrative resources are the next
big challenges. End comment.


13. (U) Minimize or Dushanbe considered.


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