KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD IN

UNCLAS ALMATY 003047

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE),DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-
HELBLING)
USOSCE FOR R. BARBER

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD IN
DECEMBER 2005

REF: Almaty 2985


1. (SBU) Summary: The Constitutional Council of Kazakhstan
announced that Presidential elections should be held on
December 4, 2005. The elections were previously scheduled
for December 2006. The Constitutional Council's ruling was
in response to an inquiry from the Mazhilis. The question
of timing had provoked a great deal of public debate in
recent months, as elections in 2006 would have given
President Nazarbayev almost an eight-year term. Once the
Mazhilis confirms the date, nominations will be accepted
until October 4. Candidates must register by October 25.
End Summary.

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A Decision, Finally
--------------


2. (U) On August 19, the Constitutional Council announced
that in accordance with Article 41 of the Constitution,
presidential elections should be held on the first Sunday in
December 2005. The new president will be sworn in on
January 11, 2006.


3. (SBU) The ruling was issued in response to a July 8
inquiry from a group of parliamentarians led by Valeriy
Kotovich, one of the drafters of the controversial NGO laws.
The parliamentarians questioned the GOK's assertions that
elections should be held in December 2006 in order to comply
with Article 94 of the Constitution. They argued that
Article 41 of the Constitution, which specifies a seven-year
term for the president, should take precedence. (Note:
Nazarbayev was sworn in for his current term on January 20,

1999. December 2006 elections would have given him a term
of almost eight years. End note.) Although it was widely
believed that the Presidential Administration favored
December 2005 elections, the Constitutional Council
postponed its decision several times rather than ruling
within the required one-month period.

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Nomination and Registration
--------------


4. (U) Now that the Constitutional Council has issued its
opinion, the Mazhilis (lower house of parliament) must
officially call the elections. After it reconvenes on
September 1, it has until September 11 to adopt the
necessary legislation. It must comply with the Council's
opinion and with the Constitution, which specifies that
presidential elections are to be held on the first Sunday in
December. Once the Mazhilis officially sets the election
date, nomination of candidates will be permitted until two
months before election day, i.e. October 4. Self-nomination
is permitted. (Note: The dates given below are approximate,
based on post's interpretation of applicable Kazakhstani
laws. End note.)


5. (U) Once a candidate has submitted nomination
registration materials, the Central Election Commission
(CEC) has five days to determine the candidate's eligibility
for office. Article 41 (2) of the Constitution requires
that the President be at least 40 years of age, have a
"perfect command" of the Kazakh language, have lived in
Kazakhstan for at least fifteen years and have no criminal
record.


6. (U) After the CEC certifies that a candidate is eligible,
he/she then has five days to gather signatures supporting
their candidacy. Each candidate must provide petitions from
"at least two-thirds" of the 16 oblast-level voting
districts, i.e. eleven. The petition for each oblast must
contain the signatures of at least one percent of eligible
voters in that oblast. Candidates must also deposit the
equivalent of $2,600 into a CEC account, and they and their
spouses must file tax returns and property statements.


7. (U) After completing the aforementioned steps, candidates
will then have to register officially with the CEC. The
official registration period is expected to be October 4 -

25. The CEC is required to publish the names of registered
candidates within seven days of registration. Candidates
who are not registered by the CEC have ten days to appeal
the decision to the Supreme Court. The court must rule on
the appeal within ten days. Thus, if a candidate were
rejected at the last moment (October 25),he/she would have
until November 4 to appeal to the Supreme Court, which would
have to rule by November 14. If there is only one candidate
registered by October 25, the registration period will be
extended by 20 days, to November 14.

--------------
Campaigning, Election and Counting
--------------


8. (U) The electoral campaign will run from October 26 to
December 2. Local authorities will be required to announce
the polling stations in their districts by November 24. By
law, all campaigning and political activities must cease by
6:00 p.m. local time on December 2. The election will take
place on December 4, with polling places open from 7:00 a.m.
to 8:00 p.m. Local commissions have discretion to open as
early as 6:00 a.m. and close as late as 10:00 p.m.


9. (U) Local commissions have up to two days to report their
results to the Central Election Commission, and thus the CEC
must have the counts by December 7. The CEC has seven days
from the closing of the election (i.e. until December 11) to
confirm the results and ten days (i.e. until December 14) to
announce the election results. Legislation passed in 2005
prohibits rallies and demonstrations from the end of
campaigning (December 2) until the announcements of final
election results.


10. (U) Candidates can challenge the election results to the
Supreme Court within ten days of the CEC posting the
results. The court will have ten days to rule on any
challenges.


11. (U) In the event no candidate receives 50 percent of the
vote, Article 41 (4) of the Constitution specifies that a
runoff election between the top two candidates must be held
within two months. If the December 4 election is found
invalid or if a runoff fails to determine a clear winner,
the CEC would have to conduct a new election.


12. (U) According to Article 42 (2) of the Constitution, the
presidential inauguration is held the second Wednesday in
January, i.e. January 11, 2006.


13. (U) Minimize for Dushanbe considered.

ASQUINO


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