KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

UNCLAS ALMATY 002957

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, OES/STC AND EUR/RUS NOLL
ALSO FOR EB/TPP/ATP, EB/TPP/BTA AND INR/REA
USDA FAS FOR ITP FOR MACKE/THOMAS, CMP/DLP WETZEL
FAS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS AND FSIS
HHS FOR WSTEIGER, PBUDASHEWITZ
CDC FOR SBLOUNT, EMCCRAY
BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS/FENANDEZ
ANKARA FOR FAS ATTACHE HIGGISTON
GENEVA FOR HEALTH ATTACHE
TASHKENT FOR ESTH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR TBIO ECON RS ETRD PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

REF: (A) ALMATY 2842 (B) ALMATY 2904


1. Summary: Post has obtained confirmation that on August
12, Kazakhstani health authorities released diagnoses of
H5N1 AI in birds from parts of North Kazakhstan and
Akmolinskaya oblasts. The diagnoses were based on
polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests developed with the
assistance of U.S. experts (reftels). No/no further
suspected cases of human exposure have been reported. The
epidemiological situation appears to be stable, but it is
possible that cases have been underreported in affected
regions. The affected regions of Kazakhstan are all in
close proximity to the affected regions of Russia.
Additionally, some regions of Kazakhstan border on known
sites of AI outbreaks in China. These regions have yet to
report cases but may be considered to be at risk. End
Summary.

H5N1 Confirmed in NKO, Akmola
--------------


2. On August 12, the Agricultural Research Institute of the
Ministry of Education and Science informed the Ministry of
Health that H5N1 was detected in PCR tests of serum from
wild and domesticated fowl taken from the Kyzylzharskiy
region of North Kazakhstan oblast, as well as the villages
of Ushsart in the Korgalzhino region of Akmolinskaya oblast
and Akkul in the Alekseyevskiy region of Akmolinskaya
oblast. These diagnoses are added to already-confirmed
cases in Pavlodar (Irtyshskiy and Lebyazhinskiy regions) and
East Kazakhstan (Borodulikhinskiy region) oblasts, and to
recently-reported cases in Karaganda oblast. These tests
were performed with the assistance of members of the U.S.
Naval Medical Research Unit-3, who have since departed
Kazakhstan.

Authorities Describe Situation as Stable
--------------


3. Kazakhstani authorities are describing the
epidemiological situation as stable, as no new cases of AI
in birds were reported over the weekend (August 13-14). It
is, however, possible that cases are being underreported in
the affected locales now that quarantine measures are in
place. No/no further suspected cases of human exposure have
been reported.


4. However, Ministry of Agriculture authorities have
publicly identified regions where preparations for potential
AI outbreaks are insufficient. Aktyubinskaya, Zhambylskaya,
West Kazakhstan and Kyzylordinskaya Oblasts were singled out
as not having sufficient diagnostic reagents on hand.
Aktyubinskaya, East Kazakhstan and West Kazakhstan oblasts
were identified as lacking sufficient disinfectants to
contain an outbreak. On August 12, the Agriculture Ministry
also criticized Kostanay Oblast as deficient in its
preparations because it had not approved a comprehensive
plan for dealing with an outbreak. (Comment: A lack of
preparation in Kostanay, if genuine, is cause for concern,
as that oblast borders on already-affected North Kazakhstan,
Akmolinskaya and Karaganda oblasts.)

Correlation to Russian Outbreaks
--------------


5. According to a report prepared for the Kazakhstani

authorities, the incidents of AI in Kazakhstan track closely
in a geographic sense with those happening in the Russian
Federation. Specifically, Kyzylzharskiy (North Kazakhstan)
borders on Tyumenskaya oblast. Irtyshskiy (Pavlodar)
borders on Omskaya oblast. Lebyazhinskiy (Pavlodar) and
Borodulikhinskiy (East Kazakhstan) both border on the Altay
Kray.


6. Akmolinskaya and Karaganda oblasts do not border the
Russian Federation. In Akmolinskaya, the affected region of
Korgalzhino includes Lake Tengiz, which is a major location
along the migratory routes of wild birds.


7. Kazakhstani authorities are keeping a particularly close
eye on areas of the North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and East
Kazakhstan oblasts (all bordering Russia) that have not yet
reported outbreaks, as well as on the Kuruchumskiy,
Zaysanskiy and Urdzharskiy rayons of East Kazakhstan oblast.
These three districts, which have not/not reported any cases
of AI, border the Sinkiang-Uighur Autonomous Region of
China, where post understands there has been an outbreak.

Further Risks from Migratory Birds
--------------


8. In addition to the border locations identified as being
at substantial immediate risk for AI, authorities are
keeping a close watch on several interior regions thought to
be at risk as fall approaches due to their location on the
migratory paths of birds to and from India and Pakistan.
These routes begin in parts of Russia where AI has been
observed. These regions include parts of the already-
affected Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan,
Akmolinskaya, and Karaganda oblasts. They also include
areas in as-yet unaffected Kyzylordinskaya oblast, South
Kazakhstan oblast (which borders Uzbekistan),and
Almatinskaya oblast (which surrounds but does not include
the city of Almaty).

Comment
--------------


9. The Kazakhstani authorities continue to respond in a
measured and calm manner to the bird flu outbreaks, although
post notes that underreporting may be happening in some
places where quarantines are already in place. The GOK has
accepted U.S. help in diagnosing the problem and CDC/CAR
continues to provide advisory services to the Kazakhstani
ministries involved in the response. While the role of USG
entities has not been publicly acknowledged, the GOK has
been receptive to U.S. assistance throughout the epidemic.


10. Dushanbe Minimize considered.

ASQUINO


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