KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

UNCLAS ALMATY 002904

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, OES/STC AND EUR/RUS NOLL
ALSO FOR EB/TPP/ATP AND EB/TPP/BTA
USDA FAS FOR ITP FOR MACKE/THOMAS, CMP/DLP WETZEL
FAS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS AND FSIS
HHS FOR WSTEIGER, PBUDASHEWITZ
BRUSSELS PLEASE PASS TO APHIS/FENANDEZ
ANKARA FOR FAS ATTACHE HIGGISTON
GENEVA FOR HEALTH ATTACHE
TASHKENT FOR PUTNAM

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAGR TBIO ECON RS ETRD PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE

REF: ALMATY 2482


1. (U) Summary: After additional testing using reagents
developed with U.S. assistance, the suspected human avian
influenza (AI) patient in Pavlodar oblast (reftel) has not
yet indicated the presence of the AI virus. The
hospitalization of fifteen people in East Kazakhstan oblast
has been confirmed to be a salmonella episode and not/not
AI. Reports of afflicted bird populations have come from
Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan and Akmolinskaya oblasts. The GOK
has confirmed that the avian cases tested to date were cases
of the highly pathogenic H5N1 AI strain. The affected
oblasts and neighboring North Kazakhstan oblast have taken
measures to quarantine the poultry industry. To date, the
GOK has imposed quarantines and accepted scientific advice
from U.S. specialists. The GOK has also disseminated
educational information to large and small poultry
producers, but has not taken strict measures limiting
commerce in poultry. End Summary.

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Still No Confirmed Human Case
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2. (U) As reported in reftel, a team from Naval Medical
Research Unit-3 was invited by CDC and the Ministry of
Health to Kazakhstan to assist in developing diagnostic
materials for AI. Using samples collected from the outbreak
in Pavlodar oblast, the team developed both PCR (molecular-
genetic) and ELISA (antibody) tests for the infection
observed in Kazakhstan. None of the tests performed so far
on the young man hospitalized in Pavlodar have been
reactive. He is therefore not a confirmed human case.


3. (SBU) However, species-jumping with AI has been so rare
that it is not known with any certainty how long it would
take a notional patient to seroconvert, i.e. produce
detectable antibodies. Although medical sources close to
the case tell us the initial prognosis was very bleak, the
Pavlodar patient is now expected to survive.


4. (SBU) In the village of Golubovka, site of the human
case under investigation, CDC/CAR reports that the local
authorities have made door-to-door visits to residents to
check them for fever. This was a standard Soviet method of
monitoring the progress of suspected dangerous "fevers of
unknown origin."


5. (U) The fifteen people hospitalized near Ust-Kamenogorsk
(East Kazakhstan) after eating chicken from their company
cafeteria have been positively diagnosed with salmonella. AI
has been excluded as a possible cause of their illness.

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More Reports of Infected Birds
--------------


6. (U) There are continued reports of poultry incidents in
the northern and eastern regions of the country. In
addition to the Pavlodar case, 364 chickens have reportedly
died in East Kazakhstan; 37 wild ducks and some domesticated
birds died in Akmolinskaya oblast. It is expected that AI
will be found to have caused the deaths. The GOK announced
August 10 that the Pavlodar cases were definitely instances
of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain, but characterized the
"epizootic situation on the republic's poultry farms" as

"favorable.".

7. (U) The two new cases in Akmolinskaya oblast, which were
reported in the press August 5, occurred in flocks
maintained by two private households. Approximately 70
chickens and 30 ducks died. The remainder of the flocks
(about 350 ducks and chickens) was reportedly culled and
quarantines were established for both villages. (Note:
Akmolinskaya oblast surrounds and includes Astana, which
itself has oblast status. The affected villages in
Akmolinskaya oblast, Vinovgradovka and Yshsart, are roughly
90 miles from the capital. End Note.)

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Quarantines Imposed
--------------


8. (SBU) The authorities have taken measures to quarantine
the poultry industry in the affected regions, although as
yet the Ministry of Health has not confirmed which strain(s)
of AI have been identified in Kazakhstan. In the affected
regions, farms have been ordered to operate in a "closed
mode," i.e. no movement of people, birds, feed or equipment
between farms regardless of whether an incident has taken
place. All of Pavlodar oblast is under this restriction; we
understand that in the other oblasts only the affected
villages are covered. Even in areas not affected by a
strict quarantine, the Ministry of Agriculture advised
producers to keep poultry indoors where possible, erect
additional fences, secure their feed supplies against
intrusion by wild birds and report deaths from within their
flocks. Veterinary officials are checking ponds in the
Pavlodar oblast for dead or ill birds. (Comment: Because of
the extraordinary difficulty of completely isolating farms
from contact with wild birds and the likelihood that some
infections already in progress have gone unreported as yet,
we are somewhat skeptical about the efficacy of the
quarantine. End comment.)


9. (SBU) CDC/CAR has assisted in preparing flyers with
educational materials on AI for distribution to even the
smallest farms. This is intended to counteract the under-
reporting of possibly infected birds and to discourage
farmers from attempting to isolate sick poultry themselves
without informing authorities.


10. (U) Multiple countries have taken action to prevent
potentially infected Kazakhstani poultry and poultry meat
from crossing their borders. Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
and Georgia have banned the importation of Kazakhstani
poultry. The European Commission is expected to do so by
August 12.

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Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) The specialists from NMRU-3 continue to assist
the GOK in identifying the virus(es) affecting
birds in Kazakhstan. The additional reports in East
Kazakhstan and Akmolinskaya oblasts seem to bolster the
theory that the location of the outbreaks is related to the
routes of migratory birds, even though the outbreak is
taking place outside of the recognized migratory season.
The GOK appears to have chosen a measured and low-key
response. It appears to be taking necessary measures and
accepting outside advice, but studiously avoiding

characterizing the problem in such a way as to cause panic
at home or excessively adverse responses abroad. Post
continues to follow these developments closely.


12. Dushanbe minimize considered.

ASQUINO


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