SENATE ELECTIONS SET FOR AUGUST 19

UNCLAS ALMATY 002370

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE)
ALSO FOR INR/REA (S. FEINBERG),INR/EC (J. KILIAN-KIVLER)
ALSO FOR DRL/PHD (P. DAVIS, C. KUCHTA-HELBLING)

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: SENATE ELECTIONS SET FOR AUGUST 19



1. (SBU) Summary: Sixteen seats will be contested in the
August 19th Senate elections. A one-month nomination
period commenced on June 18. As candidates will be chosen
indirectly by the Maslikhats (oblast-level, elected
legislatures controlled by pro-Nazarbayev parties) the
elections, predictably, will deliver a solid pro-
presidential majority. End Summary.


2. (U) On June 16, 2005 the President issued a decree
announcing Senate (upper house of Parliament) elections
for August 19, 2005. Of the thirty-nine seats in the
Senate, seven are selected by the President. The remainder
are chosen by Maslikhats in each of the 14 oblasts and the
cities of Astana and Almaty on a three-year rotating
basis. Consequently, sixteen seats are being contested in
this election. Each Maslikhats elects two Senators by
majority vote. Only the general results of the vote are
announced, not the break-down.

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Nominating Candidates
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3. (U) The nomination period for Senate candidates began
on June 18, and will run until July 18. Article 71 of the
Elections Law mandates that the candidates can be
nominated by the Maslikhats, or they can be self-
nominated. A candidate must first file an application with
the Regional Elections Commission (REC). The Commission
then reviews the candidate's eligibility. Eligible
candidates need the support of at least 10% of all members
of the given Maslikhat. To register, all candidates must
deposit around $55 with the Central Election
Commission(CEE). Only candidates who gain at least 7% of
the vote get their deposit refunded.

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Counting the Vote
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4. (U) The registration of candidates ends on July 29.
Election campaigning will be permitted from July 30
through August 17. The REC will tally the vote on the day
of the election, For its part, the CEE plans to verify
final results by August 25 and publish them no later than
August 28.


5. (SBU) Comment: Senate elections have, to date, elicited
little public comment or interest. We expect the
Maslikhats, already a bastion of pro-presidential parties,
to deliver a solid pro-Nazarbayev Senate. One Senator from
the banned DVK Party has indicated privately that she may
not run for reelection. Should that happen, and if no
opposition candidates are selected during this round, the
Kazakhstani Parliament would be bereft of a single
opposition voice. The elections, however, will show how
support breaks down among pro-presidential parties. We
expect Asar and the Agrarian and Civil parties to make the
best of it in their respective strongholds. That said,
Otan should pick up most of the seats. End comment.


6. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered.

ORDWAY


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