KAZAKHSTAN: DEF MIN COMMENTS ON IRAQ WITHDRAWAL

UNCLAS ALMATY 001901

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN JMUDGE, MOMARA

SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: MOPS PREL PGOV IZ KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: DEF MIN COMMENTS ON IRAQ WITHDRAWAL
APPEAR NOT TO REFLECT POLICY



1. (SBU) Summary: Kazakhstani Defense Minister Gen.
Mukhtar Altynbayev commented to journalists May 17
that in his "personal opinion" the country should not
send a new contingent of sappers to replace the 27
personnel Kazakhstan currently has in Iraq. The contingent
is due to rotate in July 2005. All indications from
elsewhere in the GOK are that the Defense Minister's
statements, as was the case in a similar episode last April,
by no means represent official policy. End
summary.

Altynbayev's Remarks
--------------


2. (SBU) Minister Altynbayev made his comments to
journalists following an address to senior NCOS in Astana.
Asked by a reporter about the country's participation in
Iraq, Altynbayev responded: "(w)e are satisfying
international obligations in full.our troops have gained
enough experience.It is time to consider withdrawal of the
contingent (of peacepkeepers.)" He went on to say that the
currently serving troops ought not be replaced in July. The
Minister characterized his comments as a "personal opinion"
and, in response to a follow-up question, said that he
expected that President Nazarbayev and the Parliament of
Kazakhstan would "hear about it (his statement) on
television."

GOK Response Reassuring
--------------


3. (SBU) Following Altynbayev's remarks the Ambassador, DATT
and Astana Principal Officer pressed GOK contacts for
clarification. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aleksey
Volkov told the Ambassador the evening of May 17 that
Altynbayev's remarks were not reflective of GOK policy and
that no such policy change had been coordinated among
ministries. The Astana Principal Officer followed up May 18
with the Americas desk officer at MFA, who indicated that he
had drafted a statement affirming Kazakhstan's continuing
support of the OIF coalition. However, MFA might also
consider an alternative method of clarifying the policy.


4. (SBU) A senior officer in the International Department of
the Ministry of Defense told DATT that the department had
been informed of no such policy change and went on to accuse
"outside influences" (NFI) of propagating the report for
their own benefit. This contact assured DATT that the GOK
plans to carry out the next rotation in July, and is
preparing to discuss details of the rotation at the May 24-
25 Planning Conference in Budapest.


5. (SBU) In response to a proposal by a Parliamentary deputy
to invite the Minister to brief Parliament on his views, the
speaker of the Mazhilis (lower house of Parliament)
announced May 18 that the Parliament would not take up the
question of a possible withdrawal unless President
Nazarbayev asked them to do so.

Media Coverage
--------------


6. (SBU) Altynbayev's remarks have not drawn a great deal of
immediate local media attention. His statement was carried
without elaboration by the pro-government "Khabar" evening
news program and by the local affiliate of the Russian
Interfax wire service. Only three national newspapers, the
official Kazakhstanskaya Pravda and the private, but pro-
government, Liter and Express-K, publish on Wednesdays; and
none of them featured this story prominently.
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda covered Altynbayev's meeting with the
senior NCOs, but did not report his Iraq statement. Liter
reported the statement, but in a very short article without
comment.
Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) At this point we have a number of good reasons to
believe that Altynbayev's remarks do not/not represent a
policy shift. Nor, we believe, are they likely to lead to
one in the near future. Our government contacts were
unanimous in expressing surprise and in denying that a
decision on withdrawal had been made or even considered. We
recall that Altynbayev made similar statements as action in
Fallujah intensified in April 2004, only to be contradicted
soon after by senior GOK officials. Finally, we note that
President Nazarbayev sent a letter to President Bush dated
May 12 inviting President Bush to visit and touting
Kazakhstan's status as "the only Muslim majority country to
send troops to Iraq." We expect to receive a public
statement or alternative indication that the GOK's policy is


unchanged in the near future.

Asquino


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