Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALMATY13
2005-01-04 05:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US Office Almaty
Cable title:  

KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KZ POLITICAL 
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UNCLAS ALMATY 000013 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY
LEADER YERMEGIYAYEV

REF: A) ALMATY 4769 B) ALMATY 4315 C) ALMATY 4274

UNCLAS ALMATY 000013

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY
LEADER YERMEGIYAYEV

REF: A) ALMATY 4769 B) ALMATY 4315 C) ALMATY 4274


1. (SBU) Summary: During a December 21 introductory
meeting with the Ambassador, pro-presidential Otan Party
deputy chair Armangeldy Yermegiyayev described a party with
a strong vertical structure, an extensive local network,
and a clear platform. He outlined a vision of quality-of-
life improvements coupled with gradual democratic change.
Yermegiyayev assessed the work of U.S.-funded democracy
NGOs positively, reserving his criticism for opposition
parties Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan and,
somewhat surprisingly, first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva's
Asar. End summary.


2. (U) The Ambassador met with pro-presidential Otan Party
deputy chair Armangeldy Yermegiyayev on December 21 at
Otan's party headquarters in Almaty, the site of the
November 28 explosions (ref A). Party official Kazbek
Kazkenov also took part in the meeting. Since the October
resignation of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay (ref B),one of the
other two deputy chairs, Yermegiyayev has been the day-to-
day leader of Otan. Aleksandr Pavlov, the third deputy
chairman, maintains a much lower profile than either of his
counterparts. President Nazarbayev is the chairman.

--------------
Membership Growing "Voluntarily"
--------------


3. (SBU) Yermegiyayev informed the Ambassador that Otan's
membership had increased to 450,000, taking pains to note
that members joined voluntarily out of a personal choice to
support the party's ideology. He added that the party had
instituted monthly dues, ranging from 5 KZT to 50 KZT ($.04
to $.38) according to income, specifically to prevent mass
enrollments at institutions. The party leader said that
Otan has 9,100 party organizations at the primary level
(i.e. institutions),an office staffed by two professional
staff members in each raion (subdivision of an oblast),and
an office staff by five professional staff members in each
oblast. Yermegiyayev explained that oblast party leaders
are selected locally and then approved by the national
organization, to maintain the party's strict vertical
structure.


4. (SBU) With the formation of the new Mazhilis and the
adherence of several independent candidates to Otan, the
party now holds 53 of the 77 seats in the lower house.

(Note: Mazhilis speaker Uraz Mukhamedzhanov and deputy
speaker Sergey Dyachenko, although Otan members, do not
count as part of the party bloc. End note.) Yermegiyayev
remarked that political parties do not have offices or
staff in the Parliament, as they do in the Russian Duma,
implying that this was a shortcoming of the system. He
said that Otan favored a greater role for parties and had
"posed the question."

-------------- --------------
Otan Platform "Does Not Always Match Government Policy"
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) At the party's 7th congress, in early December,
members had agreed on a number of changes to the party
platform; according to Yermegiyayev, the new 2004-2009
program would essentially be the party's presidential
campaign platform. He insisted that the party's views do
not always match the government's policies, claiming that
President Nazarbayev makes a clear distinction between his
role as head of state and his job as party chairman. To
support his argument, he cited Otan's long-standing
proposal to increase the Mazhilis from 77 to 120 seats,
with half elected from party lists and half in single-
member districts. He described this as a way to make the
situation fairer for smaller parties. Yermegiyayev also
underscored his vision for Otan as a party of ideas, not of
one person, that would outlast the current government.


6. (SBU) Other elements of Otan's platform, according to
Yermegiyayev, include giving parliament more control over
the implementation of the national budget; equalizing the
power of local elected bodies (maslikhats) with local
executive authorities; giving maslikhat secretaries the
right to run sessions on a continuous basis; and
instituting the direct election of local leaders, with
indirect election of raion leaders via the maslikhats.
Yermegiyayev stressed that it would be "dangerous" to
change the current practice of presidential appointment of


oblast leaders, given the balance of ethnic majorities in
different parts of the country. He noted Russia's recent
decision to do away with the election of governors as a
relevant precedent. Yermegiyayev said that Otan was
carefully considering the question of the formation of the
government; at its next congress, the party might propose
that the parliamentary majority should select all the
ministers and form the government.

--------------
Ambitious Goals for Quality of Life
--------------


7. (SBU) Without going into detail as to how Otan would
accomplish its objectives, Yermegiyayev outlined a range of
ambitious goals to improve the quality of life of the
average citizen. By 2009, pensions should equal 50% to 60%
of the average wage; the current figure is approximately
28%. Salaries of teachers and doctors should be doubled.
GDP per capita should double to $4000. Spending on science
should be raised from the current .16% to 1% of the budget.
The government should institute a pro-natal policy with the
goal of increasing the population to 20 million from its
current level of 15 million. The industrial base should be
diversified.

--------------
Good Cooperation with U.S.-Funded NGOs
--------------


8. (SBU) Given the GOK's recent allegations that U.S.-
funded democracy NGOs concentrated a disproportionate
amount of their efforts on the opposition (ref C),the
Ambassador asked Yermegiyayev about Otan's cooperation with
the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the
National Democratic Institute (NDI). Yermegiyayev and
Kazkenov indicated that the party enjoyed good relations
with both organizations, as well as with USAID. Kazkenov
mentioned a recent IRI training program for young party
members as an example of successful cooperation, noting
that Otan had proposed organizing joint events open to all
parties in oblast capitals to both NDI and IRI.

--------------
Opposition Politicians "Only Desire Power"
--------------


9. (SBU) Turning to the Kazakhstani political opposition,
Yermegiyayev's voice began to rise as he underscored what
he described as the inherently hypocritical position of
parties such as Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan
(DCK). He asked rhetorically what ideology could possibly
unite the ultra-liberal DCK with the Communists, who had
formed a voting bloc for the parliamentary elections.
"Only the desire for power," he claimed. Noting that
before becoming leader of Otan he himself had been a
private businessman, Yermegiyayev pointed out that
opposition leaders such as Zhandosov, Sarsenbayev, and
Kazhegeldin had been in the government at the time of
flawed privatizations and had "created this problem with
corruption." He claimed that they had all benefited
personally from crooked privatization deals and had fought
viciously over the booty. Yermegiyayev also singled out
Zhandosov's call for the National Fund to be distributed
directly to the people as a shockingly disingenuous
populist move for a former Finance Minister. Yermegiyayev
reminded the Ambassador that Ak Zhol had also called for
the reexamination of contracts signed with foreign
investors in the early 1990s, and stressed that Otan
understood the need to respect contracts.

--------------
Asar: Not Clear What They Stand For
--------------


10. (SBU) Yermegiyayev told the Ambassador that the
leadership of first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva's Asar
party had approached Otan before the parliamentary
elections with a proposal to form a voting bloc. Otan had
refused. Yermegiyayev described his party's attitude
toward Asar as mixed; while they did not view Asar as a
serious competitor, they needed time to see what the other
main pro-presidential party stood for. He contrasted the
two parties' programs, claiming that Otan had made very
specific proposals while Asar had made only vague
statements such as support for raising pensions and more
support for science. Yermegiyayev remarked that time would


show which party had a real program and represented the
interests of the people. (Comment: While Yermegiyayev may
well have genuine antipathy toward Asar, many observers
believe that the parties are deliberately trying to
distance themselves from each other in order to appeal to
different groups of voters and increase their overall vote
share. End comment.)


11. (SBU) Bio note: Yermegiyayev was chairman of Otan from
2002 to March 2004, when he stepped down and became a
deputy chair at the 6th Otan party congress. He is thought
to be close to President Nazarbayev, as the latter chose
him to be chairman of Otan even though Yermegiyayev had no
history as a party activist. His demotion was seen by some
local analysts as part of a Nazarbayev strategy to mobilize
the rank and file; Yermegiyayev was thought to be too much
of a functionary to carry out that role. (Note:
Tuyakbay's subsequent resignation likely upset the overall
strategy, however.) Yermegiyayev, one of eight children,
was born June 14, 1944 in the village of Jalanash in Alma-
Ata Oblast. He graduated from Moscow's V. Kuybyshev Civil
Engineering Institute in 1968 with a degree in industrial
and civil construction. After military service, he worked
in the construction industry until 1988, when he was
appointed Deputy Chairman of the Executive Committee of the
Almaty City Soviet of People's Deputies. He returned to
the private sector in 1990 as president of the
Almatykurylys construction holding company, a position he
still holds.


12. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered.

ASQUINO