KAZAKHSTAN'S MEDIA COVERAGE OF KYRGYZSTAN

UNCLAS ALMATY 001130

SIPDIS


STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE),EUR/PPD (JBASEDOW),
EUR/ACE (MO'NEAL/ESMITH),DRL/PHD (PDAVIS)

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KPAO KDEM KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN'S MEDIA COVERAGE OF KYRGYZSTAN


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: From the start of the revolt in southern
Kyrgyzstan, international media speculated on how events
there might affect their rich neighbor in the north. Many
international media relied on the Interfax wire service in
their reporting, although Interfax sometimes posted
uncorroborated and contradictory accounts, particularly
regarding Akayev's whereabouts. Kazakhstan's television
and print media were relatively slow in publishing
reaction, because of a local holiday March 21 and 22, and
because some managers ordered news editors in the beginning
only to repeat wire service accounts. The first television
reports on March 23 highlighted GOK officials' appeals for
a peaceful resolution to the crisis and their concern for
their neighbor-citizens in Kyrgyzstan. Pro-government
media considered the demonstrations unprovoked and hinted
that funding from Western NGOs may have played a role in
the denouement. Political analysts were split over the
effect on Kazakhstan's opposition, which warned that
Kazakhstan was next in line for revolution. Initial
official reaction from the GOK was mostly subdued and
issued off-camera through official statements. President
Nazarbayev's assessment on March 25 citing accumulated
socio-economic problems, mass poverty and the "weak" Kyrgyz
authorities was almost identical the statement from
President Putin. END SUMMARY.

TELEVISION COVERAGE GETS A LATE START
--------------


2. (SBU) As events in Kyrgyzstan unfolded, the independent
Russian wire service Interfax often scooped other media.
This was sometimes at the expense of getting corroboration
for their reports, such as their contradictory statements
on Akayev's whereabouts. Many international media relied
on Interfax reporting to augment their own coverage.
Kazakhstan's television coverage of the events began only
on March 23, in part because of a March 21 and 22 holiday.
None of the three nationwide broadcasters - official
Kazakhstan 1, pro-government Khabar and centrist Channel 31
- reported the events unfolding to the south on prime time
news March 22. A source told emboff that managers at
Khabar, which has a correspondent based in Bishkek, ordered
news directors to only repeat wire service accounts, and
not provide any additional coverage.


3. (U) Television coverage was generally factual, with some
editorializing. Prime time news on March 23 focussed on
the opening session of Kyrgyzstan's newly elected
parliament, efforts to maintain order in Bishkek, and
Akayev's declaration that he would not resort to violence
to restore order in the "mutinous cities of Dzhalalabad and
Osh" (pro-government, regional Rakhat). Both television
and print reports from Ambassador Ordway's press conference
that day led with the Ambassador's comments that the U.S.
did not interfere in the internal affairs of other
countries and wanted a peaceful resolution to the crisis
through dialogue. The pro-government daily Ekpress K
attributed the following comment to him, which he did not
make: "We do not want that situation in Kyrgyzstan to get
out of control and develop according to the Ukrainian
scenario."


4. (U) In reporting the storming of the White House in
Bishkek March 24, Khabar noted that "demonstrations
organized by the opposition turned into mass disorder and
pogroms" and concluded with a rhetorical question: "Arson,
assault, a run on banks, pillaging - is this a victory of
democracy?" Kazakhstan 1 similarly characterized the
events as "an alarming revolution."

PRO-GOVERNMENT PRESS - UNPROVOKED REBELLION
--------------


5. (U) The March 24 official and pro-government papers,
issued before the opposition reached Bishkek, considered
the rebellion an unprovoked attack on the weak, but well-
intentioned Akayev. A page 5 story in Kazakhstanskaya
Pravda on March 24 noted that, "independent observers found
no serious or obvious violations" in the second round of
Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections March 13, but the
ruling party's decisive victory "forced opposition forces
to aggressive actions - unsanctioned rallies, a massive
pogrom, attacks on administrative buildings and
institutions, blockades of airports and highways..." The
pro-government daily Express K noted on page one, "As we
know, he refused to run for a new term in office. However,

today the political situation with our neighbors is so
unstable that no political scientists can guarantee Akayev
a peaceful departure from his presidential post."

THE PRICE OF REVOLUTION, THE USG ROLE
--------------


6. (U) The daily pro-government Liter on page 1 of its
March 24 issue said the opposition coaxed participants into
demonstrations by offering brandy and 200-300 soms ($7),
which the paper said was a considerable amount of money for
the impoverished Kyrgyz people. The pro-government weekly
Novoye Pokoleniye published several stories March 25, which
dwelt on how the poverty of the population and Akayev's
weakness contributed to the popular uprising. From page
one: "It's obvious that people live in dire conditions,
while the president is accused of robbery and nepotism.
This, and the weak will of Akayev, are fully exploited by
the opposition forces and by U.S. Ambassador Steven Young,
who supported them. By the way, the latter presumably had
a big influence on Akayev, because contrary to all
agreements with neighboring countries (Security Collective
Treaty, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, etc.),U.S. spy
planes will be based in Kyrgyzstan." In another piece on
page three the author noted, "It's obvious that money came
from abroad...It's hard to say how much the disorder in
Kyrgyzstan cost, but it's known that help from the West to
NGOs bossing the Ukraine around during their third round of
elections was $3 million... Presumably less money was spent
in Kyrgyzstan. It should be remarked that power doesn't
cost much..."

EFFECT ON KAZAKHSTAN - OPINION SPLIT
--------------


7. (U) Daily pro-government Aikyn shared opinions of
prominent Kazakhstani political scientists about whether
Kazakhstan might be "next." Dos Koshim, president of the
Republican Network of Independent Monitors, said, "The
situation will definitely have an influence on Kazakhstan,
because Kyrgyzstan is not as far away as Georgia and
Ukraine... Their protest may be considered an example to
local [Kazakhstani] opposition." Political scientist Dosym
Satpayev said the influence would come from Islamic
extremists crossing from Kyrgyzstan to Kazakhstan. "The
influence of Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Islamic organizations is
very strong in the south of Kyrgyzstan. These
organizations were active in the elections and sided with
candidates with whom they could make a deal in the
future... The influence will be felt here, first of all,
through refugees passing through our territory, including
groups with terrorist and extremist intentions. Second,
Kazakhstan may suffer economically, because it has
investments in some of sectors of the Kyrgyz economy, such
as the banking system."


8. (U) Political scientist Murat Laumulin disagreed:
"Kazakhstan has a different economic and political
situation from Kyrgyzstan... our opposition has no ability
to organize a situation similar to the Kyrgyz one."
Opposition journalist Sergey Duvanov posted a similar
comment on the progressive website, navi.kz: "Our
authorities are in a fairly firm position, we have a middle
class (certainly by our standards),who are fed by the
regime and stabilize a part of society. We also have a
weak opposition, that has not up to the present
accomplished anything."

KAZAKHSTAN'S OPPOSITION - WE'RE NEXT
--------------


9. (U) Warnings from Kazakhstan's opposition to their own
government were published March 25 in the opposition weekly
Respublika. Opposition presidential candidate Zharmakhan
Tuyakbay said, "Disregarding public opinion caused the
logical collapse of Akayev's regime, but the situation with
parliamentary elections - to be more precise, the obvious
vote rigging - is very similar to our September elections.
It's high time for authorities to understand a simple truth
- that only fair and just elections, when votes are not
stolen, can be a guarantor of not repeating similar events
here." Communist party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin said,
"I would compare events in Kyrgyzstan with analogical
events in Ukraine. In both cases, the votes and the
expressed will of the people were boldly stolen... Akayev
forced his son and daughter through to parliament, this is

unthinkable! He created an absurd situation and got what
he deserved. Let this be a good lesson for dictators of
all suits!"


10. (U) Despite its recent liquidation, the Democratic
Choice of Kazakhstan party published their statement on the
opposition website, kub.kz: "The People's Party,
Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, congratulates our brothers
in the Kyrgyz Republic on their victory... DCK is sure that
the Kyrgyz revolution will become the starting point for
building a democratic society in Central Asia. The leading
role of the people of Kyrgyzstan in this process will
remain in history forever. Our hearts are with you - Your
today is our tomorrow - Together we will win!"

GOK'S PUBLIC, LOW-KEY RESPONSE
--------------


11. (SBU) The first GOK comment on the unfolding revolution
was low key, and came from government ministers, rather
than the president. In a March 22 statement, Foreign
Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev said that Kazakhstan was
observing the events in Kyrgyzstan with concern, and called
on the authorities and the opposition to find a common
language and to come to agreement without using force, on
the basis of the Kyrgyz constitution. Once the
demonstrators had reached Bishkek, Prime Minister Daniyal
Akhmetov's appeal to resolve the issues in the "brother
state" in accordance with the law appeared on the regional
pro-government station Rakhat and the pro-government Almaty
municipal station, Yuzhnaya Stolitsa, but not the national
stations.


12. (U) Tokayev's reaction to the storming of the White
House appeared March 25 on page 2 of the official
government daily Kazakhstanskaya Pravda. (Unofficial
translation follows). "Firstly, we are tied to this
country by traditional and neighborly relations. We
sincerely feel what our neighbors are going through.
Secondly, further confrontation can have an adverse affect
on the socio-economic conditions of citizens in that
country. Thirdly, we are concerned for our fellow citizens
living in Kyrgyzstan. Events in Kyrgyzstan once again
testify to the correctness of policies set by our head of
state. Thanks to our political stability and international
harmony, Kazakhstan joined the dynamically developing
countries in the world, and became an example for our
region and all CIS countries..."

AND FINALLY NAZARBAYEV'S ASSESSMENT - WEAK AUTHORITY
-------------- --------------


13. (U) Interfax posted a statement made by President
Nazarbayev at a business forum in Astana on March 25. "It
is absolutely obvious that the socio-economic problems that
were accumulating in that country for years led to mass
poverty and unemployment. This triggered spontaneous
protests in many regions of the country. The weakness of
the authorities, who were unable to prevent the rioters and
vandals from doing whatever they wanted, also played a
negative role." None of the television reports that
evening included President Nazarbayev's reaction, although
Kazakhstan 1 and Khabar did include President Putin's
statement, which was almost identical.


14. (SBU) COMMENT: Considering their shared border,
history and cultural ties, more prominent coverage in
Kazakhstan's media of Kyrgyzstan's revolution might have
been expected. However, the subdued reaction from the GOK
and pro-government media clearly reflect a concern
regarding the potential for spillover into Kazakhstani
politics. With his public statement, Nazarbayev appeared
to minimize the potential for unrest in Kazakhstan, while
laying down a marker that any uprisings would be dealt with
forcefully. While it is too early to predict whether the
GOK will take additional steps to ensure stability, post
certainly expects the pattern of pressure on opposition
parties and media to continue. END COMMENT.


15. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered.

Ordway


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