KAZAKHSTAN: FRACTURED OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALMATY 001081

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (MUDGE),DRL/PHD (DAVIS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: FRACTURED OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO
UNITE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. ALMATY 746


B. ALMATY 582

Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Against the backdrop of the liquidation of
Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan and a split in Ak Zhol, the
majority of the Kazakhstani opposition has united around
former Mazhilis speaker Zharmakhan Tuyakbay as their
presidential candidate. The parties have formed an electoral
bloc entitled "For a Just Kazakhstan" to participate in the
next presidential elections. However, Ak Zhol co-chair
Alikhan Baimenov did not participate. Some opposition
figures claim that Baimenov has been co-opted by the
authorities to set the scene for a three-way contest in which
the opposition vote will be divided. End summary.

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The Opposition Unites
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2. (SBU) On March 20, representatives of the opposition
selected former Speaker of the Parliament Zharmakhan Tuyakbay
as their candidate for the presidency and voted to create an
electoral bloc entitled "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK). The
only members of the opposition not present at the meeting,
which brought together approximately 590 delegates from
around the country, were Ak Zhol co-chair Alikhan Baimenov
and his supporters. Delegates elected a 19-member presidium
that included Tuyakbay and representatives of Ak Zhol (Bulat
Abilov, Oraz Zhandosov, Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly),both factions
of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (Galymzhan Zhakiyanov,
Petr Svoik, Zauresh Battalova, Assylbek Kozhakhmetov),and
the Communist Party of Kazakhstan (Serikbolsyn Abdildin,
Tulen Tokhtasynov). Controversial opposition figure Zamanbek
Nurkadilov was also elected to the presidium. Delegates also
approved a 57-member council, which includes exiled former
Kazakhstani PM Akezhan Kazhegeldin.


3. (SBU) The standing room-only gathering took place early
on Sunday morning in an Almaty movie theater, decorated for
the occasion with an enormous "For a Just Kazakhstan" banner.
Delegates were primarily middle-aged or older, with only
about 10% young people. The crowd was surprisingly
energized, breaking into frequent chants of "Nazarbayev ket"
("Down with Nazarbayev") and "Zharmakhan" (Tuyakbay's first
name). Abdildin, who frequently presides at opposition
events due to his seniority, called the meeting to order.
Abilov then briefly described the purpose of the event and
announced the members of the presidium. He also introduced
foreign guests, including a Kyrgyz opposition leader and the
head of the "Pora" movement in Ukraine. Tuyakbay gave the
first speech -- a rather uninspiring but eloquent overview of
the challenges facing the country, including corruption and
poverty, and the need for the opposition to unite. He cited
the adoption of a new Constitution based on the Opposition
Coordination Council's draft as a priority, and spoke of the
need to overcome civic apathy.


4. (SBU) Although DCK leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov could not
be present at the gathering, as he is not permitted to leave
his settlement colony in Shiderty, he was given the honor of
being the first to announce that Tuyakbay would be the
opposition presidential candidate. In a letter read aloud by
Abilov, Zhakiyanov outlined the characteristics necessary for
a successful candidacy and declared that Tuyakbay was the
best person for the job. Subsequent speakers echoed their
support for Tuyakbay and stressed the need for unity in the
fact of GOK repression tactics. A representative of
Kazhegeldin announced that the former PM, now living in
London, would support the opposition's candidate with "all of
his ability and resources," noting that it would be the
state's fault if the opposition was "forced into the
streets."


5. (SBU) A declaration adopted by the delegates called for
presidential elections to be conducted in an honest and
transparent manner, in accordance with the Constitution. FJK
leaders believe that presidential elections should be held in
December 2005, as Nazarbayev was elected to a 7-year term in
January 1999. (Note: Through a rather tortured
interpretation of the constitution, the GOK has consistently
insisted that elections cannot be held until December 2006.)
Several speakers underscored the fact that FJK is a peaceful
movement that seeks to work within the Kazakhstani political
system for change. Almost all made references to the recent
upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.

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But the Parties Splinter
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6. (C) After the liquidation of DCK (ref A),the left wing
of the opposition remains fractured. Zhakiyanov's supporters
are still at odds with the Ablyazov/Kozhakhmetov camp, which
they view as having intentionally provoked a conflict with
the GOK. There have been indications from the GOK, including
public statements by Security Council chair Utemuratov and
Mazhilis speaker Mukhamedzhanov (and categorical private
assurances to the Ambassador by Utemuratov),that a
compromise might be possible if DCK would renounce the
objectionable portions of its December 11 statement.
Zhakiyanov confidant Tulen Tokhtasynov told POEC chief that
DCK leaders have not been able to come to agreement among
themselves, however, leaving the party in limbo pending the
next appeal verdict.


7. (C) Tensions within Ak Zhol (ref B) have led to a split in
that party as well. The fundamental area of disagreement was
ostensibly co-chair Alikhan Baimenov's unwillingness to work
with the "radical opposition" through the Opposition
Coordination Council. After trading a series of combative
public statements with the other co-chairs, Baimenov
conducted a party congress in Astana on March 13 at which he
was elected the sole chairman. All supporters of Abilov,
Zhandosov, and Sarsenbaiuly were kicked out of the party's
presidium and central committee. The change in leadership
will require Baimenov and his supporters to seek
re-registration.


8. (C) Abilov and Zhandosov told POEC chief on March 16 that
they considered the Astana congress to have been
illegitimate, and would challenge Baimenov's actions in
court. They were pessimistic about the chances of success,
however, as they claimed that the GOK had been actively
supporting Baimenov's grab for control. They said that local
authorities had helped organize the regional meetings that
selected delegates for the Astana congress, and that
representatives of the KNB had called Ak Zhol members to
pressure them to attend the Astana congress instead of a
competing meeting in Almaty. They also noted that the
state-controlled media are treating Baimenov's faction as the
legitimate Ak Zhol, and are not covering the meetings and
announcements of their faction. (Note: We saw no coverage
in the press of a March 15 press conference in Almaty
organized by the Abilov-Zhandosov-Sarsenbaiuly faction. The
split has also resulted in the closure of the party's website
and the "Ak Zhol - Kazakhstan" newspaper, further hindering
their ability to get their message across. End note.)


9. (C) Zhandosov told POEC chief that absent GOK
interference, the disagreement with Baimenov could have been
resolved through normal intra-party discussions. It became
clear, however, that Baimenov had chosen to work with the
government rather than remain within the opposition.
Numerous observers of Kazakhstani politics have speculated
that Baimenov, always the most moderate of the five
co-chairs, is closely linked to the GOK. Tokhtasynov told
POEC chief on February 23 that he had always doubted
Baimenov's sincerity, and was now convinced that Baimenov was
working for the government to splinter the opposition.
Zhandosov and Abilov stressed that the government's
interference in Ak Zhol was part of a broader campaign to
clear the field for December 2005 presidential elections;
repeated official statements that the elections would take
place in 2006 were simply a disinformation campaign intended
to keep the public and the opposition confused. They
expressed confidence that the majority of Ak Zhol members
would go with them rather than Baimenov. (Comment:
Perceptions of GOK interference may be true, but the primary
reasons for the split rest within the party itself.
Utemuratov and several other senior presidential aides have
heatedly denied to the Ambassador that they have any
involvement in the Ak Zhol split. End comment.)

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Comment
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10. (C) Comment: The degree of unity and enthusiasm for
Tuyakbay's candidacy displayed at the March 20 opposition
meeting was surprising and perhaps unprecedented for
Kazakhstan -- although there remains the daunting challenge
of maintaining unity in a very diverse group for nine (or
more likely 21) more months. The fact that one main
opposition party has been liquidated and another has split
will greatly hinder the opposition's ability to campaign
effectively, raise funds, and get a unified message across.
The opposition's major problem, however, is President
Nazarbayev's deep and broad popularity. Baimenov's potential
candidacy is another challenge, since he is thought to be
more popular in the regions than other opposition figures and


could split what at the moment appears to be a minority
opposition electorate. End comment.
ORDWAY


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