UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THE KABYLIE REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 002321

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV AG
SUBJECT: UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THE KABYLIE REGION


CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MARC J. SIEVERS
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

CONTEXT FOR KABYLIE ELECTIONS
--------------


1. (U) IN APRIL 2001, VIOLENCE ERUPTED IN THE MAINLY BERBER
KABYLIE REGIONS FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF AN 18-YEAR-OLD BERBER
MALE TAKEN INTO POLICE CUSTODY. THE ENSUING CLASHES BETWEEN
THE LOCAL KABYLIE POPULATION AND ALGERIAN SECURITY FORCES,
WHICH BECAME KNOWN AS THE BERBER OR BLACK SPRING INCIDENTS,
LED TO THE DEATH OF 123 CIVILIANS. THE FOLLOWING YEAR, WHEN
NATION-WIDE ELECTIONS WERE HELD, THE MAJORITY OF
PREDOMINANTLY BERBER POLITICAL PARTIES AND GROUPS, INCLUDING
THE RALLY FOR CULTURE AND DEMOCRACY (RCD) AND THE CITIZEN'S
MOVEMENT, BOYCOTTED THE ELECTIONS. SOME ELEMENTS WENT
FURTHER AND ACTIVELY PREVENTED KABYLIE BERBERS FROM VOTING.
IN THE YEARS SINCE, THE CITIZEN'S MOVEMENT CONTINUED TO CALL
FOR THE DISMISSAL OF THE "ILLEGITIMATE REPRESENTATIVES"
ELECTED TO THE KABYLIE LOCAL GOVERNMENT GIVEN THE LACK OF
BERBER POLITICAL PARTY REPRESENTATION. JULY 17 OF THIS YEAR,
BOUTEFLIKA ISSUED A DECREE BASED ON AN AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED
BETWEEN THE GOA AND THE BERBER-BASED AROUCHE MOVEMENT THAT
DISSOLVED THE PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL COUNCILS IN THE
KABYLIE REGION AND SCHEDULED NEW ELECTIONS FOR NOVEMBER.

POLITICAL PARTY AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT
--------------


2. (SBU) NEARLY EVERY MAJOR ALGERIAN POLITICAL PARTY WILL
PARTICIPATE IN THE KABYLIE ELECTIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE FFS
AND THE RCD, THE NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT (FLN),THE
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL RALLY (RND),THE WORKER'S PARTY (PT) AND
SOCIETY OF PEACE MOVEMENT (MSP) WILL ALL FIELD SUBSTANTIAL
NUMBERS OF CANDIDATES. THE FLN LEADS THE FIELD WITH 120
CANDIDATES, FOLLOWED BY FFS WITH 118, RCD WITH 87, RND WITH
86, PT WITH 26, AND MSP WITH 17. THERE ALSO ARE MORE THAN 100
DECLARED INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES. DESPITE LOW VOTER TURNOUT
IN KABYLIE FOR THE SEPTEMBER 29 REFERENDUM ON THE CHARTER FOR
PEACE AND NATIONAL RECONCILIATION, EMBASSY CONTACTS EXPECT A
HIGH RATE OF PARTICIPATION THIS TIME AROUND. OUR SOURCES
TOLD US THAT MUCH OF THE BERBER POPULATION IS FRUSTRATED BY
THE LACK OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY UNDER THE CURRENT KABYLIE
PROVINCIAL MUNICIPAL COUNCILS AND WILL BE ACTIVELY INTERESTED
IN CHANGING THEIR LOCAL SITUATION.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS
--------------


3. (C) KNOWLEDGEABLE POLITICAL SOURCES PREDICT THAT THE
BERBER-BASED PARTIES, FFS AND RCD, WILL DO WELL BECAUSE OF
THEIR CONNECTIONS TO THE LOCAL COMMUNITY AND THEIR
UNDER-REPRESENTATION IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT SINCE THE 2002
ELECTIONS. EMBASSY CONTACTS ALSO ESTIMATE THAT THE FLN WILL
MAKE POTENTIAL POLITICAL GAINS. ACCORDING TO ONE CONTACT,
FLN CANDIDATES IN THE EYES OF VOTERS APPEAR BETTER CONNECTED
TO THE CAPITAL AND BETTER ABLE TO COMMUNICATE THE NEEDS OF
THE WILAYA TO THE FLN-DOMINATED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. AT THE
MUNICIPAL LEVEL, ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES, THE RETURN TO
ELECTED REPRESENTATION IN THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO THIS REGION'S POLITICAL REINTEGRATION INTO THE
ALGERIAN LANDSCAPE. AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, OUR SOURCES
MAINTAIN THERE IS LITTLE INTEREST IN THESE ELECTIONS EXCEPT
FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL BE DEMOCRATIC AND FREE OF
THE PROBLEMS THAT MARRED THE 2002 ELECTIONS.

SIEVERS