Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ALGIERS2292
2005-11-14 15:37:00
SECRET
Embassy Algiers
Cable title:  

RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ARGUES RUSSIA CAN'T SUPPORT

Tags:  PREL PINS PARM MARR MNUC AG 
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S E C R E T ALGIERS 002292 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PINS PARM MARR MNUC AG
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ARGUES RUSSIA CAN'T SUPPORT
IRAN SANCTIONS BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE IRANIAN RETALIATORY MOVES

Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Erdman:Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

S E C R E T ALGIERS 002292

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PINS PARM MARR MNUC AG
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ARGUES RUSSIA CAN'T SUPPORT
IRAN SANCTIONS BECAUSE OF POSSIBLE IRANIAN RETALIATORY MOVES

Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Erdman:Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (S) We do not follow Moscow reporting on the Iran nuclear
issue but report the following November 7 conversation
between Russian Ambassador Vladimir Titorenko and Ambassador
in case it sheds additional light on Russian thinking and
actions in the leadup to the IAEA board meetings later this
month.


2. (S) Over dinner November 7, Russian Ambassador Titorenko,
a fluent Arab speaker and Middle East specialist, shared his
analysis of Iran, its nuclear ambitions, and President
Ahmadinejad's recent call for "wiping Israel off the map."
On the nuclear issue, Titorenko agreed we should continue to
work together to persuade Iran not to pursue a nuclear
weapons capability via mastery of the full nuclear fuel
cycle. But he argued that at the end of the day, "as with
India and Pakistan, it would not/not be possible to prevent a
determined Iran from going nuclear."


3. (S) During considerable back and forth, Ambassador
stressed that a nuclear-weapons capable Iran would be a
highly destabilizing factor in the region. It was in the
collective interest of the great powers to join together to
prevent such a development, including by adopting economic
sanctions if necessary. Disunity on this point would be an
open invitation for Iranian misbehavior and produce the very
outcome we all wished to avoid. Ahmadinejad's recent call
for the destruction of Israel was another reminder why we
needed to prevent a nuclear-weapons capable Iran. In the
absence of strong actions and firm positions by others, it
could not be assumed that a country like Israel, faced with
calls for its destruction coming from a country on the verge
of acquiring a nuclear weapons capability would stand idly
by.


4. (S) Titorenko went on to argue that Russia could never
support sanctions against Iran. In his analysis, Russian
interests were simply too vulnerable to Iranian retaliatory
measures to permit this. For now, Iran was not causing
problems in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Chechnya, and other
Muslim areas of direct interest to Russia. But in the event
Russia supported sanctions, this could quickly change and
Iran could retaliate by stirring up serious trouble and
instability in sensitive areas, including even inside Russia,
with its increasingly significant Muslim population.
Titorenko argued as well that economic sanctions against Iran
were in any case unlikely to work because of Iran's size,
resources, capabilities, importance, and location. It could
not be isolated as Libya was. He also cautioned that if we
moved to adopt economic sanctions, Iran would significantly
step up its unhelpful activities in Iraq, greatly
complicating stabilization efforts and complicating life for
us there.


5. (S) Offering a not very flattering glimpse into at least
how some Russians view French firmness on this and other
issues, Titorenko argued that the Iranians had also taken
France's measure. They "knew" France would ultimately back
down from any sanctions threats, having concluded that France
would not want to jeopardize its economic and other interests
vis a vis Iran. In this regard, they also knew that they
were dealing with a country that in World War II had not put
up much of a fight in response to German attacks,
surrendering to the Germans in just thirty days. Regarding
Ahmadinejad's call for Israel's destruction, Titorenko argued
"he didn't really mean it." Despite Iran's posturing, Iran
and Israel were actually natural allies vis a vis the Arabs.
In this context, Ahmadinejad's statement, he theorized, was
actually designed to curry favor with Arabs and deflect
attention away from issues where Iranian behavior provoked
concern among Arabs.

ERDMAN