ALGERIANS OVERWHELMINGLY APPROVE NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 002037

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM AG
SUBJECT: ALGERIANS OVERWHELMINGLY APPROVE NATIONAL
REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT BOUTEFLIKA'S PROPOSAL FOR NATIONAL

RECONCILIATION

REF: A. ALGIERS 1973

B. ALGIERS 1810

C. ALGIERS 1702

D. ALGIERS 1661

Classified By: Ambassador Richard W. Erdman,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) According to the Ministry of Interior, about 97
percent of Algerians who voted September 29 approved
President Bouteflika's proposal for national reconciliation.
Of eligible voters, nearly 80 percent officially went to the
polls nationwide. While officials and citizens alike took
for granted the measure would pass, many Algerians were
cynical about the results, complaining in particular that the
Government's official participation figures were too high to
be credible, especially in Algiers where abstention is
traditionally high and anecdotal evidence suggests voting was
not heavy. The two major questions ahead: 1) What will be
the content of the implementing legislation? 2) Will
terrorists, as intended, lay down their arms? The suspected
manipulation of the election figures, if true, will not have
much practical affect on the course of events. However, it
will tarnish the moral and political legitimacy of the
outcome, which in any case would almost certainly have
produced a substantial pro-charter majority. And it
underscores that Algeria still has a ways to go before its
democracy rhetoric is translated fully into reality. (End
Summary.)

VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY APPROVE BOUTEFLIKA'S PROPOSAL
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2. (U) With a "yes" vote of 97.38 percent, Algeria's voters
September 29 approved President Bouteflika's proposal for
national reconciliation. The Ministry of Interior,
responsible for counting the votes, said voter turnout and
support for the proposal were highest in the seven wilaya
(provinces) most affected by terrorism in the 1990s:
Laghouat, Khenchela, Batna, Tebessa, Tiaret, Tlemcen, and
Djelfa. In these seven areas, voter participation reportedly
exceeded 89 percent, and the measure passed with at least 97
percent of the vote. Overall, 14,054,164 Algerians voted for
the referendum, with 381,127 voting against it. The national
participation rate was 79.76 percent. In Algiers, the
capital and largest urban area, the measure passed with 94.73
percent of the vote. Participation in Algiers was recorded
at 71.87 percent. Asked at a press conference how these high
turnout rates squared with the observed lack of lines and
crowds at polling stations, Interior Minister Zerhouni said
that the press had missed a lot of voters, who turned out in
especially heavy numbers late in the day.

VOTE BOYCOTTED IN BERBER AREAS
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3. (U) Although the proposal passed overwhelmingly in every
single wilaya, in the Berber-dominated wilayas of Bejaia and
Tizi-Ouzou the poll was largely boycotted. According to
official figures, the rate of voter participation in
Tizi-Ouzou was a mere 11.51 percent, according to the
official GOA count. In Bejaia, the officially announced rate
was 11.53 percent. In Bejaia, 94.36 percent of those who
voted supported the national reconciliation proposal. In
Tizi-Ouzou, 95.94 percent of voters supported the measure.

REACTION TO THE VOTE MIXED
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4. (C) PM Ouyahia publicly welcomed the vote, noting the
Charter would provide a "roadmap" for the government's
handling of problems arising from the period of terrorism.
The presidential coalition parties -- the FLN, RND, and
moderate Islamic MSP party -- also issued predictably
laudatory declarations. Parties and groups that opposed the
Charter publicly accused the government of perpetrating
fraud. Numerous Algerian contacts as well as long-time
African and Maghrebian diplomatic observers voiced private
skepticism about the tabulation of high voter participation,
especially in Algiers, know for its traditionally high
abstention rates. Arouch Berber movement leader Abrika
publicly expressed astonishment over the claimed voting rate
in Algiers. Meanwhile, reaction from terrorists was divided,
suggesting that the charter may indeed prompt defections.
The GSPC issued a communiqu rejecting the referendum results
and vowing to continue terrorist actions until Algeria became
an Islamic state. On the other hand, Hassan Hattab, a
founding member of the GSPC, was reported as announcing his
plans to surrender to GOA authorities. The press also
reported that 20 other terrorists said they would lay down
their arms, and Interior Minister Zerhouni said October 2
that a regional emir (terrorist leader) had surrendered
following the September 29 referendum.

NEXT STEPS
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5. (SBU) The Ministry of Interior announced that the
Government without delay would begin working on the
implementing legislation, the details of which remain "top
secret." Presidential Diplomatic Advisor Rahal told

SIPDIS
Ambassador Oct. 2 that a Council of Ministers meeting this
week would establish a working committee to determine what
legislative steps would be required. The Arabic-language El
Yaom predicted that a cabinet shuffle would soon be in the
offing, with FLN Party Leader and Minister of State Belkhadem
likely to replace Ouyahia as Prime Minister. Embassy sources
also predict that President Bouteflika may next year propose
amending the constitution to enable him to seek a third
consecutive presidential term. Our contacts expect
Bouteflika to argue that he is best positioned to oversee the
national reconciliation process, which would extend beyond
his current term.

COMMENT: TOO MANY VOTES
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6. (C) While we do not doubt that the measure passed
overwhelmingly, we concur with members of the opposition that
it is difficult to reconcile claimed voter participation
rates, especially in large urban areas like Algiers, with the
absence of crowds, lines, or other visible indications of
high voter turnout at polling stations. Embassy employees
who voted maintained that voter turnout could not have
reached anywhere close to 72 percent in Algiers. One
employee who voted at the end of the day said very few names
had been marked off from the official list. Another employee
who voted late afternoon said one of the poll workers, a
personal friend, told him that only 70 out of 600 registered
voters had reported to that polling place. Two respected
journalists who spoke with the Embassy on condition of
anonymity also complained that the officially reported
turnout rates were too high, especially in Algiers.


7. (C) The suspected manipulation of official voting
figures, if true, will probably have very little practical
impact on the course of events. It will, however, undercut
the moral and political legitimacy of the outcome, which in
any case would have been a sizable pro-charter referendum
majority, given terrorism fatigue and the genuine longing of
most Algerians for peace and reconciliation and their
readiness to follow Bouteflika's lead. Such manipulation
also underscores that Algeria has a long road ahead to real
democracy.
ERDMAN