UNMEE TRANSFERS STAFF TO ETHIOPIA TO AVERT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 004187

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2015
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: UNMEE TRANSFERS STAFF TO ETHIOPIA TO AVERT
SHOWDOWN WITH ERITREA

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 4107

B. ADDIS ABABA 4046

C. ADDIS ABABA 3725

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. UNMEE has "temporarily" transferred 80
personnel from Eritrea to Ethiopia, in order to comply with
Eritrea's demand that U.S., Canadian, European, and Russian
staff depart Eritrea. While acknowledging the transfer of
civilian administrative staff (e.g., handling personnel and
telecommunications) to Addis Ababa, UNMEE's acting SRSG and
Force Commander declined to provide details on how many of
UNMEE's approximately 220 military observers had to be
removed or replaced. UNMEE officials assert that their
ability to monitor the TSZ has not been dramatically
effected; however, previous restrictions had already rendered
UNMEE blind to 800 kilometers of the 1,100 km border. An
internal report from U.S. MILOBs notes that observers at team
sites in Eritrea have been cut in half, and that "observation
of the TSZ is easily less than 15 per cent." UNMEE reports
that Ethiopia's pullback of troops is proceeding as
scheduled; Eritrea maintains it has no troops to withdraw.
UNMEE notes the presence of nearly 2,000 "armed persons" in
the TSZ, but no tanks or artillery. UNMEE officials did
not/not acknowledge any contingency planning for terminating
the peacekeeping mission. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) On December 19, Deputy Special Representative of the
UN Secretary-General (DSRSG) Amb. Azouz Ennifar and United
Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) Force
Commander Major General Rajender Singh briefed Addis-based
representatives of P-5 missions and troop contributing
countries via videoteleconference from Asmara.

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ETHIOPIA PULLING BACK FROM BORDER
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3. (SBU) Ethiopia had begun withdrawing troops from the
border, DSRSG Ennifar and MG Singh said. Redeployment was
proceeding as scheduled, and would likely be completed by
December 22 or 23, as stipulated in the plan the GOE had
given to UNMEE. Asked by the French ambassador about reports
that Ethiopia was only partially withdrawing its forces,
Singh replied that it was "premature" to comment on
unconfirmed reports that Ethiopia was leaving behind some
equipment and troops. UNMEE was "satisfied" with the
transparency of Ethiopia's redeployment, Singh added.
Netherlands ambassador noted that Ethiopian MFA director
general had told him on December 16 that Ethiopia "would not
be lured into war." So long as Ethiopia knows it has the
upper hand, Dutch ambassador said, there will be no
aggression by Ethiopia, which continued to maintain that
dialogue accompany demarcation.


4. (SBU) According to Singh, there continued to be "no
evidence" of tanks or artillery in the Temporary Security
Zone (TSZ); UNMEE has previously said the presence of such
equipment would be one of Ethiopia's redlines. Singh noted
that in response to UNSC resolution 1640, the Government of
the State of Eritrea (GSE) had asserted that it had no troops
within the TSZ, and therefore had no redeployments to make.
Eritrea had nearly 2,000 "armed persons" at 17 locations
within the TSZ, Singh said. Most were small groups of
80-100; two groups each had 150-200 persons.

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ERITREAN RESTRICTIONS ON UNMEE CONTINUE
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5. (SBU) Singh reported "no basic change" in the GSE's
restrictions on UNMEE. Restrictions at nearly 13 locations
had curtailed night patrols, he said; at one location, UNMEE
had also been blocked from moving off the main road. Singh
said it was difficult to assess what the GSE was thinking,
noting that Eritrean officials had been "cheerful"
immediately prior to introducing a ban on UNMEE flight
operations on October 4. DSRSG Ennifar said that UN
Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations
Jean-Marie Guehenno had departed Asmara for Kabul on December
16, without having met anyone from the GSE, but that Italy's
deputy foreign minister had met with President Isaias for two
hours. Visiting UN High Commissioner for Refugees Gutierres

was scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Meles on December

19.


6. (SBU) In response to the GSE's demand that U.S., Canadian,
European, and Russian staff be removed from UNMEE, the UNSC
had issued a presidential statement on December 14
reiterating that the GSE's decision was unacceptable, Ennifar
noted. The UN had then decided to move staff, but "in a
multinational way," he added. As a result, UNMEE had
transferred some services (e.g., telecommunications) and
equipment from its headquarters in Asmara to its headquarters
in Addis Ababa, including the American chief of personnel and
the Russian chief of administration. Over the previous two
days, UNMEE had moved approximately 80 staff from Eritrea to
Ethiopia, Ennifar said. Ukrainian flight crews manning
UNMEE's fixed wing aircraft remained in place, as they were
contractors, not staff. "The relocation is temporary,"
Ennifar asserted, adding that UNMEE personnel had not
encountered any additional difficulties prior to the GSE's
December 16 deadline. Ennifar said no UNMEE staff had been
brought into Asmara to replace those departing, except for
himself. (NOTE: Ennifar had been in Asmara for a week,
serving as acting head of UNMEE as SRSG Legwaila Joseph
Legwaila continues medical leave. END NOTE.)


7. (SBU) In response to French ambassador's concerns about
the budgetary impact of relocation, DSRSG Ennifar said that
UNMEE's "temporary decision" to transfer staff had had "no
major effect" on its budget. Force Commander Singh observed
that the GSE's ban on flight operations had actually led to
UNMEE saving money (presumably due to cost savings from lower
aviation fuel bills).


8. (SBU) The UNSC would meet December 22 to "further discuss
the future of UNMEE," Ennifar said, and to discuss what could
be done for UNMEE to allow it to fulfill its mandate, which
had been "jeopardized" by GSE's restrictions over the last
seven weeks. He said the UNSC would meet January 2-3 to hear
the UN Secretary-General's report on the parties' compliance
with UNSCR 1640 and on the implementation of the
Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission's call to demarcate the
border. Asked whether options to be considered by the UN SYG
included the possible termination of UNMEE, Ennifar replied,
"Your guess is as good as mine." Many options could be put
forward, but few would work out, he said, adding that the
UNSC would have to decide UNMEE's future. UNMEE peacekeepers
were doing a good job, he said, despite facing restrictions
and difficulties. UNMEE was taking steps to ensure mission
staff's safety and security, such as increasing its medical
staff, to compensate for the ban on medical evacuations by
air.

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NO PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGEMENT MILITARY OBSERVERS HAVE DEPARTED
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Questioned about UNMEE statements made December 7
that the GSE's expulsion order would affect 90 of UNMEE's 220
military observers (ref B),MG Singh only acknowledged that
20 out of 41 troop contributing countries had been affected.
MILOBs' mandate were not limited to observing the TSZ from
within Eritrea, he said; they were also mandated to observe
redeployment on the Ethiopian side. Singh asserted that for
MILOBs, it was "business as usual," with no additional team
sites added to the 18 that existed on the two sides of the
border. Ennifar explained that UNMEE's military staff had
always rotated, whereas its civilian staff had previously
not. UNMEE's role in the TSZ continued, Ennifar said,
asserting that the GSE's most recent decision had "not
dramatically affected" UNMEE's monitoring capability. Asked
by Austrian ambassador whether UNMEE was preparing to move
MILOBs to Adigrat or Axum (Ethiopian areas near the previous
flashpoint of Zelambessa, in UNMEE's central sector),Ennifar
said such moves were premature to discuss. "We need to give
diplomacy a chance," he said.


10. (SBU) UNMEE Senior Political Affairs Officer Dr.
Abdel-Kader Haireche commented that a lesson learned for
future missions was to have staff comprised of as many
nationalities as possible. He clarified that a total of 210
MILOBs now remained in UNMEE (out of 220 as of December 7).


11. (C) COMMENT: UNMEE officials are clearly trying to put
the best face forward on a difficult situation. DSRSG

Ennifar's assertion that Eritrea's request to expel staff has
"not dramatically affected" UNMEE's monitoring capability
must be considered in the context of earlier warnings that
previous GSE restrictions had already rendered UNMEE unable
to monitor 800 km of the 1,100-km border. While UNMEE
refused to provide details of MILOBs transferred out of
Eritrea, Norwegian ambassador informed Poloff that Norwegian
MILOBs had been transferred from the TSZ to the Ethiopian
town of Adigrat. An internal sitrep from the 8 U.S. military
officers serving as UNMEE MILOBs notes that the GSE's
eviction order has led to half the number of MILOBs at each
team site in Eritrea, and double the number of MILOBs at each
team site in Ethiopia. It also assesses that "observer
shortage combined with flight and movement restrictions means
that observation of the TSZ is easily less than 15 per cent."
Given the relatively greater transparency of Ethiopian
redeployment, acknowledged by UNMEE, any further reduction in
UNMEE's already diminished capacity to monitor Eritrean
activity within the TSZ or adjacent areas should be of
concern. END COMMENT.
HUDDLESTON