ETHIOPIA: THE WAY FORWARD ON POLITICAL DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 004082

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AF FOR A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID ET ELEC UNREST
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: THE WAY FORWARD ON POLITICAL DIALOGUE
AND DETAINEES

REF: ADDIS ABABA 3954

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)



1. (C) Summary: Forward movement on democratization in Ethiopia is
essential to avoid further political violence as well as a further
deterioration in the human rights and political freedoms. An improveme
in the political climate also appears to be the most practical and
effective way to obtain the eventual release of detained leaders of the
CUDP, journalists and civil society representatives. PM Meles is ready
reopen political dialogue with the leadership of opposition parties in
Parliament, and those parties, including the UEDF and the OFDM have agr
to initiate informal discussions with the GOE. The Charge arranged for
Meles to meet with party leaders beginning Dec. 12. Meles said he woul
include the CUD Parliamentary opposition in the discussions once they h
named a leader. We expect the talks to focus on "rule of law" issues
including current unrest in Oromiyia improving opportunities for the
opposition in Parliament, media issues, and National Electoral Board
(NEB). As the discussion moves forward, we hope that trust will be bui
that would prepare the way for the realization of the EU-US ten point
plan, including the release of detained CUDP leaders. End Summary.


2. (C) While relative calm has returned to the streets in most parts of
Ethiopia since widespread, violent protests in early November, politica
tension remains high. Disturbances continue in many parts of the
extensive Oromiya region, including protests, arrests and some reported
killings of government opponents. The Oromo Liberation Front's (OLF) c
for popular struggle against the GOE appears to have prompted much of t
unrest. Popular frustration with the EPRDF simmers just below the surfa
in many other areas as well, particularly cities and towns. The
continuing detentions of Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP)
leadership as well as many CUDP followers is a major factor in public
anger, as is the more general perception that Ethiopia's democratic
opening is sliding backwards.

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PM and Parliamentary Opposition Agree to Talk
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3. (C) The Nov. 6 U.S.-EU Statement on the current situation sought to
provide a way forward, and included an explicit call for the release of
CUDP leaders as well as other detainees. PM Meles has categorically
rejected a release of the detainees prior to their trail, however.
Charges are expected to be announced by the government on Thursday.
Although Embassy and DAS Yamamoto have repeatedly pressed for the CUD a
civil society leaders release, on a parallel course we are seeking to o
political space and build confidence between the Government and opposit
in Parliament by encouraging a serious discussion/dialogue between the
GOE and those opposition parties in Parliament, including the United
Ethiopian Democratic Forces and the Oromo Federal Democratic Movement
(OFDM). As part of the political dialogue with the GOE in October, the
UEDF was negotiating alongside the CUD a joint agenda focused on

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strengthening Ethiopia's democratic institutions. PM Meles expressed t
the Charge in private on at least two occasions since early November hi
willingness to resume discussions on the same eight-point agenda agreed
before October talks collapsed. The Charge followed up with several
meetings with UEDF leaders Beyene Petros and Merera Gudina, OFDM leader
Bulcha Demeksa and independent (former President) Negaso. All agreed
December 7 to resume talks with the suspended eight-point agenda as a
starting point. PM Meles confirmed Dec. 8 that he would be available t
do so beginning Dec. 12 with British Ambassador and Charge present. Ta
with the PM are also planned for December 13 and 14; subsequent talks w
not necessarily include the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister suggeste
that Dr. Negaso (an independent member of Parliament) not participate
because he does not represent a party. This is agreeable to the
opposition.

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The Empty Chair: CUDP Not Ready to Participate
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4. (C) The PM said that he would like to include the leader of the CUD
Parliamentary group when it chooses a leader. So far, however, the CUD
has not successfully re-established its decision-making structure since
the arrest of its leaders and the rejection by the NEB of the coalition
proposed merger into a single party in November (reftel). According to
the NEB, the CUDP does not exist as a legal entity; PM Meles has indica
to the Charge twice in private that the previous CUD coalition would be
charged with criminal offenses. There are currently at least 59 CUDP M
who have taken their seats in Parliament in defiance of the party's for
decision not to do so -- over half of the 109 CUDP MPs elected -- but
those MPs have studiously avoided any media exposure and do not appear
have selected a leader. Other opposition parties confirmed post's
impression that the CUD is not yet ready to participate in any formal
dialogue. EU Ambassador Tim Clarke asked the UEDF and OFDM leaders if
they were aware of the "danger" of going ahead with talks while the CUD
leaders are detained. The four leaders told him that any gains they ma
would be for all the opposition, but that this is now the only way
forward. Clarke reluctantly agreed to support the effort. The other E
Troika members, the UK and Austrian Ambassadors agreed with the UEDF, O
and ourselves that the new round of dialogue is the best possibility fo
consolidating democracy. CUD supporters in the Diaspora issued a
communiqui Dec. 6 in which they opposed any dialogue conducted without
their party's participation.

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Substance: Rule of Law, Parliament, Media and Electoral Board
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5. (C) The eight-point agenda that will initially guide the discussions
includes four initial items proposed by the GOE that respect for the
Constitution by both government and opposition, such as recognizing the
Constitution and institutions of government and rejecting illegal
actions. The other agenda items are the "rule of law", including such
matters as arbitrary detentions and harassment of opposition parties as
well as the disturbances in Oromiya; access to responsible public and
private media; a review of Parliamentary rules and the creation of an
effective Parliament; and capacity-building for the National Electoral
Board (NEB) and naming of a new Board. As before, opposition parties
would like to push discussion on the NEB agenda item to cover deeper
reform of the institution to ensure impartiality, rather than simply
training staff, etc. The UEDF and OFDM also will raise the constitutio
issue of when local elections will be held. Issues will be divided int
two categories. Category one includes those issues that constitutional
obligations. Category two are those that provide political space for t
opposition but are not mandated by law.

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Local Mediation Possible, but Only Limited International Participation
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6. (C) While details of the discussions/dialogue are likely to evolve
following the initial meeting on Dec. 12, the PM told the Charge on Dec
that he wanted her and British Ambassador Dewar to participate only in
initial session. Thereafter, the PM said that the international commun
would be kept informed of progress in the talks. Meles said that he
would participate himself in at least the first three day of discussion
but would eventually turn them over to Public Affairs Advisor Bereket
Simon. In a departure from the previous dialogue, the PM suggested tha
he was considering some form of independent Ethiopian mediation or
observation in the talks. Among the options appears to be participatio
by representatives of a group of elders, a common local form of dispute
resolution and reconciliation that the GOE has resisted up until now.
UEDF leader Beyene Petros suggested separately that someone like Amb.

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Berhanu Dinka, an Ethiopian diplomat currently engaged in Darfur
mediation, would be a good choice to mediate. Meles also said that he
will initiate a separate discussions with Oromo leaders like Merera
Gudina and Bulcha Demeksa to discuss particular Oromo issues.

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Expected Outcomes from Dialogue
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7. (C) If the initial discussions with the Prime Minister are productiv
we anticipate the following: reduced pressure on the Parliamentary
opposition and increased political space in Parliamentary deliberations
that they have a more effective voice; release of remaining detainees f
the UEDF and OFDM that not linked with OLF's call for insurrection;
opposition participation in the review of the rules of Parliament;
agreement by all sides to abide by the constitution; better access to t
media and a toning down of rhetoric on both sides; capacity-building of
the NEB; and the beginning of a search for solutions to the violence in
Oromiya. As the discussions move into category two, we would hope to
see: revision of Parliamentary rules and at least one opposition comitt
chairmanship; consultations and agreement on date of local elections a
naming of a new NEB Board; implementation of a new media law and code o
conduct agreeable to government and opposition; the full participation
the CUD parliamentarians; and an end to arbitrary detentions. It is o
expectation that as trust is built up through the dialogue, the GOE wil
not only be more willing to loosen its repressive grip on the oppositio
generally, but will also consider a pardon of the CUD and civil society
leaders, probably after the trial and verdict.


8. (C) Should the talks with ONC leader Dr. Merera and UEDF leader Dr.
Bulcha on Oromiya go well, this could lay the foundation for resuming O
cooperation with the government. The OLF will have to reinitiate the
dialogue, however. The Prime Minister has suggested that one potentia
solution would involve allowing the OLF to participate indirectly in
Parliament via its natural allies in either the ONC or OFDM.

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City Government: the Next Target
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9. (C) While the above discussions are underway, the US and the Troik
will continue to meet with the leaders of the UEDP - Medhin, most
importantly MP-elect Lidetu Ayalew and deputy mayor election Alemasu.
Although many of the UEDP-Medhin members have joined Parliament, their
leaders fear public recrimination if they enter, especially as the CUD
press has attacked Lidetu for allegedly sabotaging the CUDP merger.
Assuming the discussions improve cooperation and reduce tensions, this
would allow the UEDP-Medhin leaders to announce publicly their intentio
to enter Parliament and organize its members to take over the governmen
of Addis Ababa, where they won the majority of seats. UEDP-Medhin coul
potentially supply 63 of the 71 Regional Council members necessary to f
an opposition government in the capital. At least a handful of other
members elected to the Council under the CUD banner would have to join
them. The GOE remains ready to hand over the city administration, but
will likely appoint a long-term caretaker government if opposition Coun
members-elect to do not show up within the next month or so.

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International Support for Democratic Progress
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10. (SBU) Assistance to Parliament, the NEB, and the media by USAID an
other international donors will be essential to supporting and
consolidating progress in the GOE-opposition discussions. A USAID
contractor will be conducting an orientation program for all MPs --
including those elected by the CUD who have taken their seats -- during
the week of Dec. 12. We are working intensively with other members of
local Donors Assistance Group (DAG) to conduct a comparative study of t
rules of Parliamentary procedure that should inform GOE-opposition
discussions on the need for changes to those rules. We are also
developing DAG proposals to respond to openings from PM Meles and the
Speaker of Parliament for technical assistance and training in the area
media law and practice.


11. (C) AF -- especially DAS Yamamoto and AF/E, led by Eunice Reddick
is playing a essential role in our onging efforts to resolve Ethiopia's
internal political crisis. It will also be essential to maintain a uni
front with the EU. Building democracy, calming tensions, and improving
respect for the rule of law will contribute to a solution of the
Eritrea/Ethiopian border dispute. A confrontation will become less
likely as Ethiopia becomes more stable internally. Both Eritrea and
Ethiopia would be better able to concentrate their efforts on developme
rather than confrontation.
HUDDLESTON