Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ADDISABABA4075
2005-12-09 10:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

PM MELES AND PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION AGREE TO

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 004075 

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC
SUBJECT: PM MELES AND PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION AGREE TO
DIALOGUE


Classified By: CDA Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 004075

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC
SUBJECT: PM MELES AND PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION AGREE TO
DIALOGUE


Classified By: CDA Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: PM Meles told me in a meeting on Dec. 9 that
he would personally participate in the new round of political
dialogue with Parliamentary opposition leaders, which would
begin with three days of talks Dec. 12-14. While initially
limited to leaders of the UEDF and OFDM, the PM hoped that
representatives of MPs elected under the CUD banner could be
included as soon as the group chose new leadership. CUD
leaders currently imprisoned are a matter for the courts to
handle, he added. The eight-point agenda agreed during the
October political dialogue -- which covered several "rule of
law issues", the Parliament, the media and the National
Electoral Board (NEB) -- would form the basis of discussion.
Meles saw issues falling into two categories: 1)
constitutional obligations, such as an effective Parliament
or an independent NEB, and 2) discretionary measures that
might increase political space, such as giving opposition
leaders chairmanships of Parliamentary committees, or
consulting them on nominees to the NEB. The PM also signaled
political unrest in Oromiya and the role of the OLF in
Ethiopian politics would constitute an important side agenda
of the discussions. Meles said British Amb. Dewar and I
would be included in the initial session of talks on Dec. 12,
but that thereafter the international community would merely
be briefed and invited to weigh in on "issues of principle."
While potential pitfalls abound, this new round of dialogue
offers the best way forward for achieving all the goals
expressed in the U.S.-EU statement of Nov. 6. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
New Dialogue Takes Up Where Last One Left Off -- Minus CUD
-------------- --------------


2. (C) On December 8, UK Ambassador Bob Dewar and I met with
PM Meles to provide him with a readout of our meeting,
including the Troika, with opposition parliamentarians. I
related to him that Dr. Beyene and Dr. Merera of the United
Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) and Bulcha Demeksa of the

Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM) were serious and
constructive in their response to his offer to initiate
discussions based on the eight-point agenda previously agreed
during the last phase of dialogue involving the UEDF, CUD
leaders and the EPRDF in October. I told him that they
accepted the government's four agenda items regarding
adherence to the constitution and disassociation from all
political forces that promote violence. I indicated that
UEDF and OFDM would like to discuss: 1) rule of law,

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especially the Oromo region and arrests and deaths of
opposition members; 2) a review of Parliamentary rules and
increasing political space; 3) NEB capacity-building and the
naming of a new board; and 4) an independent and responsible
media. Prime Minister Meles responded that he is pleased to
talk with the opposition as long as it is a real dialogue and
not one designed to play to the gallery.


3. (C) Meles said that Bulcha should be included in this new
dialogue. (He was not present in the previous one.) The PM
indicated that he would like to include a leader from the
sixty CUD MPs in Parliament, but as yet they were not
properly organized. However, when these Parliamentarians
were ready (presumably under a new name, as CUD will be
charged as a criminal organization) he would be willing to
include them in this dialogue, or in a separate one. I
replied that the UEDF leaders had also suggested including
CUD representatives as soon as possible.

--------------
International Community Role Limited
--------------


4. (C) As to the presence of mediators of observers from the
international community, the PM said it would be beneficial
for the US and UK to observe Monday's opening discussion, if
for no other reason than to make it clear that Ethiopia's
friends can help, but cannot determine the course of
Ethiopian democracy. "This a dialogue between Ethiopians and
cannot be a show," Meles said. He added that the EPRDF's
policy was not directed at maintaining foreign aid; the EPRDF
was weak in the face of powerful ideas -- not when confronted
with blackmail. Ethiopia wanted as many friends as possible,
but those friends cannot go beyond international standards
and interfere, Meles said. If they did so, dialogue would
not be worthwhile. International friends have a legimate
stake in the principles of governance, not in making life
easier for the opposition leaders. Therefore international
mediators would not necessary but we -- Ambassador Dewar and
myself -- would be kept informed of progress. The process
would be rather like a donor governance project which the
government must carry out, but keep donors aware of progress,
the PM said. (Note: Opposition leaders plan to ask that the
U.S. and U.K. remain engaged as observers.)

--------------
The OLF Factor Looms Large
--------------


5. (C) Meles indicated that he was especially interested in
the agenda item raised by Bulcha and Merera regarding the
rule of law in Oromiya The PM said he had met with leaders
of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) in Bonn and they had
expressed interest in joining Parliament via one of the
existing parties (likely the ONC of Merera or the OFDM of
Bulcha). He had told the OLF that they could pursue this
course of action with the Parliamentary parties outside of
Ethiopia. However, the OLF had become illegal again by
calling for insurrection, and yet continued to use the same
Parliamentary party. The issue was extremely delicate, as
Meles said he did not want to close off possibilities. This
is a question of "seeing but not seeing" the Parliamentary
opposition party as a front organization. Bulcha had little
"plausible deniability" that he was already acting as a front
for the OLF, and Merera would find it difficult to make the
case. The PM said he would review these issues privately
with Bulcha and Merera. "As for the OLF, they had blown up
the bridge. They may change their views and if so, we will
play. But the ball is in their court."

-------------- --
Issues: Some Constitutional, Some Discretionary
-------------- --


6. (C) The way in which the dialogue/discussion would be
carried out, Meles said, is by reviewing two categories, as
follows:

-- Category One: Constitutional obligations that
both sides must agree to and carry out. For example, it is
the government's responsibility to assure a Parliamentary
democracy that meets international standards, but whether it
provides the opposition with additional political space is
category two. I suggested and the PM agreed that an
effective NEB would be category one, but consulting with the
opposition on new board members would be category two.

-- Category Two: Issues that are not constitutional
obligations, but rather part of civic duty. These issues are
also important and should be discussed, e.g. Parliamentary
practices that could be helpful as part of the give and take,
but which were not a constitutional obligation. This
category would require negotiation and "haggling" among
parties, Meles said.

--------------
CUD Not Present, But Not Forgotten
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador Dewar stated that ideally CUD leaders
detained would participate in a dialogue and the courts would
recognized Dr. Merera as President of the party he founded
(the ONC). Dewar also pressed for a mediator. (Neither of
these issues were criteria presented to the US and Troika,
but Bob and I agreed they should be raised. In fact, the
Parliamentary opposition in our earlier meeting specifically
rejected EU Ambassador Clark's warning that dialogue without
the CUD was dangerous, saying that the gains they make will
be for all the opposition.) Meles responded that it would be
excellent to gain agreement on category one issues, but it
was equally important to create an environment for category
two issues, at which point Ethiopian mediators might be used.
(According to the Austrian ambassador, Meles had recently met
with a well connected group of elders. He may be planning to
include them at some stage.) As for the CUD leaders in
detention, Meles reiterated that that was now a legal issue
and would be settled by the courts. Those CUD MPs not in
Parliament but not detained had three choices: to join
Parliament; not to join, but to remain on a legal path; or to
follow an illegal course and be detained. As for the NEB's
decision that Merera was no longer the leader of the ONC,
Meles was disappointed in Merera, who must sort this out via
the legal system and not ask for favors. (While this argument
is technically defensible, the government was clearly
complicit in spinning up internal ONC opposition to Merera.)

8. (C) I told the PM that I was pleased that he would
participate personally in this round of dialogue, and that it
might have helped us succeed during the first dialogue if he
had been more directly involved. The PM replied that
previous dialogue could not have succeeded because it was
"rotten at the core" (note: presumably due to the CUD's
perceived hidden agenda.) This time around, however, he
wanted to participate and would be available to do so Dec.
12-14, prior to his departure for Khartoum. Meles said he
would not participate in the entire dialogue, and would
eventually turn it over to "the previous negotiator" (former
Information Minister Bereket Simon.) He said that he hoped
all parties would put all their cards on the table.

-------------- --------------
Comment: Climate Appears Propitious for Renewed Dialogue
-------------- --------------


9. This is new dialogue is a welcome development. Both the
Prime Minister and Opposition appear to be going into it in
good faith and in a constructive spirit. UEDF leader Beyene
Petros struck a note of caution during a follow-up breakfast
with me on Dec. 9, however, telling me and other dialogue
participants that Meles has used past discussions like this
merely to size up his opponents and probe their weaknesses,
rather than to advance democracy. Dr. Merera also noted that
the GOE had talked a lot about delivering progress while
actually delivering little. Bulcha Demeksa and Merera are
clearly wondering how the PM will handle the issue of the
OLF. Nonetheless, the current dialogue appears to offer the
best way forward for achieving all the goals expressed in the
U.S.-EU statement of Nov. 6.
HUDDLESTON