Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ADDISABABA4066
2005-12-08 15:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY

Tags:  PREL KPKO MARR ET ER EE BORDER 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 004066 

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO, USUN FOR EMILY BRUNO FROM CHARGE
HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15
TAGS: PREL KPKO MARR ET ER EE BORDER
SUBJECT: MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY
TO DECEMBER 2004 POSITIONS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 4044

Classified By: Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b
,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 004066

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO, USUN FOR EMILY BRUNO FROM CHARGE
HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/15
TAGS: PREL KPKO MARR ET ER EE BORDER
SUBJECT: MELES ON THE E/E BORDER - ETHIOPIA WILL RE-DEPLOY
TO DECEMBER 2004 POSITIONS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 4044

Classified By: Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b
,d)


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with CJTF-HOA Commander General
Ghormley and Ambassador concerning expansion of civil affairs
projects in the Ogaden, Prime Minister Meles provided us with
a read out on the border situation. He said that Isaias is
sending signals to the US and the UN because he wants to
irritate those he blames for his current situation. Ethiopia
will send him back a good signal by complying with the recent
UNSC resolution demanding re-deployment of his forces to
December 2004 positions. Meles cautioned that if the UN is
going to play the game and threaten Isaias, then it must be
prepared to follow up with its trump card -- withdrawal of
UNMEE because Isaias understands only power. UNMEE does not
prevent war. A better option may be to avoid precipitous
action and do nothing. Isaias will go if he thinks he can
win and if not he will find a way out, according to Meles.
End summary.


2. (C) Prime Minister Meles said he is not surprised nor is
he unduly worried about Eritrea's ultimatum to the UN. It is
designed to irritate all those who Isaias blames for his
situation. Isaias will continue to take actions to call
attention to himself and the situation until he is convinced
that no one will respond. At that point he will make his
decision one way or another. If Isaias concludes that he can
win a conflict, he will go to war if not he will find a way
out. Isaias is very smart and rationale. But "we will not
be irritated" Meles continued. We will re-deploy to our
December 2004 positions. Although there are Eritrea troops
in the TSZ, we don't believe that this will jeopardize our
re-deployment. I commended Meles for sticking with this
decision because it sends a good signal to Ethiopia and the
international community; he responded that it also sends a
good signal to Isaias.


3. (C) Meles' advice for dealing with Eritrea was that the UN
and the US should not threaten unless we are prepared to back
up our words. "If the UN is irritated, then Isaias will do
more." "He will succeed if the UN gets irritated because he
wants people to get upset." The Prime Minister opined that
the UN has two options:

-- not to play Isaias game and he will come around;

-- or stop the game early on.

The biggest mistake would be to threaten and then not carry
through. "Don't play the game if you are unwilling to
withdraw UNMEE," Meles said. His advice to the UN is that
UNMEE is their trump card. If the UN threatens Eritrea and
Isaias does not respond, it must be prepared to withdraw
UNMEE. In his view, UNMEE neither adds nor subtracts from
peace on the border, but if Isaias wants UNMEE to stay he
will make sure it does stay. I pointed out that UNMEE
officials, based on prior conversation with the Foreign
Minister, believe that Ethiopia would reoccupy the TSZ.
Meles responded that this is not necessarily the case.
Ethiopia is re-deploying in order to communicate with Isaias
because if he wants war nothing will stop him, but if he
assesses the situation and decides he cannot win he will not
start a conflict. Isaias is talking to the US and to
Ethiopia, Meles said but he cautioned we may not want to play
the game because we have other distractions and Isaias is a
master at his game. Therefore it may be best to do nothing.
Knee jerk reactions should be avoided.
HUDDLESTON