AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AU COMMISSION CHAIRPERSON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003998

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, AF/C, AF/RSA.
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ER SO ET AF UNION EE BORDER SOMALIA
SUBJECT: AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AU COMMISSION CHAIRPERSON
KONARE DISCUSS ETHIOPIAN POLITICAL CRISIS, ETHIOPIA-ERITREA
BORDER AND SOMALIA


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B)
AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: During a November 28 meeting with AF DAS
Donald Yamamoto, African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson
Alpha Oumar Konare voiced concern that lack of progress on
the internal political crisis in Ethiopia could push the
country to war with Eritrea over the unresolved border issue.
He suggested that Rwandan President Kagame or South African
President Mbeki could exert positive influence over Ethiopian
PM Meles to pave the way for compromise with the Ethiopian
opposition. Konare stated that war between Ethiopia and
Eritrea would spell disaster for Africa. He advocated
properly-prepared dialogue as the best way forward. On
Somalia, Konare said that dialogue backed up by limited
assistance to enable Somalia to function as a state is the
key to ensuring the country does not become a safehaven for
Islamic extremists. The AU plans to organize consultations
with the international community regarding Somalia
stabilization and post-conflict reconstruction. Konare noted
that the AU favors a political solution to the question of
Somaliland and is not prepared to offer Somaliland observer
status at the AU. End summary.


2. (U) Also present at the meeting were Charge, AF/RSA
Military Advisor Col. Kevin Kenny, Poloff (notetaker),AU
Peace and Security Commissioner Amb. Said Djinnit, and
Director of the Chairperson's Cabinet Lamine Diallo.

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INTERNAL POLITICS: GETTING MELES OUT OF HIS CORNER
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3. (C) Konare said that he is worried about the internal
political situation in Ethiopia, which poses a difficult
situation for a poor country. While Konare said that PM
Meles is to be commended for his federalist approach
following a history of Ethiopian feudalism and communism, he
stated that federalism without democracy will lead to civil
war. Konare noted that he enjoys frank dialogue with Meles
and has urged Meles to take a chance through ceasing
arbitrary arrests and night arrests, allowing access to those
imprisoned, and entering into dialogue with the opposition
without the precondition that they enter parliament. Konare
sensed that trying CUD leaders for treason will only
exacerbate tensions and close the door on dialogue. He said
that he told Meles that the right of assembly is part of
democracy. The GOE needs to learn to live with opposition
protests and to stop using deadly force, he said.


4. (C) Konare said that PM Meles appears to have backed
himself into a corner and has hardened his position. While
Ethiopia's friends want to help Meles, Konare lamented, they
will be forced to apply sanctions if Meles' pride pushes him
to reject assistance. Konare said that AU Assembly Chairman
President Obasanjo had asked to come to Addis to meet with
the opposition, but Meles responded that he has the situation
under control. Konare stated that Meles has even greater
respect for Rwandan President Kagame and South African
President Mbeki. He suggested that these leaders be called
upon to exert positive influence on Meles and to advocate
compromise.

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WARDING OFF THE SPECTER OF WAR
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5. (C) If the internal political situation is not stabilized,
Konare said, border tensions with Eritrea could lead to war
and a certain Ethiopian attempt to capture Asmara. Konare
noted that the political situation in Africa today is
markedly different from that during the 1998-2000
Ethiopia-Eritrea war, and that war now will destabilize the
entire region. Konare said that Egypt is also concerned
about the regional impact of war between Ethiopia,
especially on Sudan. President Mubarak is considering
dispatching his Foreign Minister to Asmara under the pretext
of discussing Sudan with Isaias and hopes to use any open
door to discuss the border.


6. (C) Konare said he believes that, although the law is on
Eritrea's side, demarcation as-is without dialogue will lead
to war. Dialogue does not mean Ethiopia is right, he noted.
Konare said that the AU considered convening an informal
meeting of the Algiers Witnesses, but has very limited
ability to contribute to a solution. The UN has also been
sidelined. The U.S. holds the most leverage with both
parties, Konare noted. Yamamoto replied that lack of forward
progress on the border is a problem for the entire
international community, which is increasingly frustrated.
He said that simultaneous demarcation and dialogue towards
normalization may hold the best chance of success. Konare
agreed, and advocated careful groundwork to ensure dialogue
is not stillborn.


7. (C) Peace and Security Commissioner Djinnit said that the
AU favors prioritization of Algiers Accord requirements and
indicated that the AU does not believe the time is right for
a study on the causes of war between the two countries, as
provided for under Article 3.

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SOMALIA: PAY NOW TO SAVE LATER
--------------


8. (C) Konare reported that there are signs that
Mogadishu-based groups may be willing to dialogue with the
Jowhar-based Transitional Federal Government (TFG). He noted
that the TFG has no means of sustainment and that Somalia
needs a bare minimum of support to function as a state.
Konare said he told U.S. interlocutors during meetings in
Washington last April that Mogadishu could become a hub for
Al-Qaeda, putting U.S. and French bases in Djibouti at risk.
Fighting terrorism in the region requires more than just
commando operations, Konare stated. The international
community should support a viable Somali state, including
through promoting disarmament and demobilization.


9. (C) While advocating dialogue between the Somali parties,
Konare said there is an inherent danger in leaving Somalia to
its own devices. He argued for support now to prevent future
disaster. Konare noted that the AU has "tried to make
amends" for IGAD's mistake in calling for deployment of
troops to Somalia, but that the AU's ability to facilitate
dialogue between the Somali parties is limited without the AU
having much to offer. Peace and Security Commissioner
Djinnit said that the AU plans to organize consultations
with the international community to discuss how to promote
Somali dialogue as well as support post-conflict
reconstruction and stabilization. Yamamoto told Konare and
Djinnit that the USG continues internal discussions on
Somalia and is contemplating sending teams to Hargesa and
Jowhar. Ethiopia, Kenya and the AU are all important players
on Somalia, he noted. Konare welcomed the possibility of
additional U.S. engagement.


10. (C) On Somaliland, Konare noted that the AU meets with
Somaliland officials at the highest level and that the Deputy
Chairperson went on mission to Hargesa. While Somaliland
seeks observer status at the AU, Konare said, the AU
encourages dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia aimed at
political accommodation.


11. (U) DAS Yamamoto cleared this cable.




HUDDLESTON