MELES MORE UPBEAT ON INTERNAL SITUATION AND E/E BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003911

SIPDIS

FOR A/S DR. FRAZER, DAS YAMAMOTO FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PGOV ET EE BORDER UNREST ELEC
SUBJECT: MELES MORE UPBEAT ON INTERNAL SITUATION AND E/E
BORDER


Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and Action Request: I met with Prime Minister
Meles Saturday afternoon on internal and border issues.
Meles rejected the possiblity of CUDP jailed leaders being
released, but promised that the democratic process would
proceed with a review of Parliamentary rules, NEB -- National
Elections Board -- and Media capacity building, and
continued released of the thousands of detainees, but no
access by the international community. (Families, lawyers
and the Ethiopian Prison Fellowship have met with the
political detainees and Meles said the Fellowship would visit
the large detention camps.) Post would appreciate DOS/USAID
contacting ARIES about providing assistance to the NEB and
consider an assistance package to improve the public and
private media. He thanked the USG for its principled stand.
On Eritrea/ Ethiopian border situation, Meles said the
situation was "bad but not that bad." Isaias may undestand
that he cannot win a war. Ethiopia and Eritrea can manage
the border, Ethiopia will not reoccupy all of the TSZ if
UNMEE withdraws as the two countries have in the past and can
again manage the border. (UNMEE Deputy told me that Ethiopia
this weekend occupied post #885 on the Asab road when UNMEE
withdrew.) Meles recognized USG role was not unhelpful in
negotiating the UNSC resolutions, but asked why we objected
to the paragraph on dialogue suggested by Benin since that is
the USG position? end summary.


2. (C) I opened the discussion with Prime Minister Meles by
telling him that I was pleased that despite his concerns he
had not asked me to cancel the lunch for the opposition
parliamentarians and the CUDP leaders not arrested. My
purpose was to give them an opportunity to exchange views as
they had been unable to meet since the demonstrations. Our
view remained that they should enter Parliament and take
responsibility for the management of Addis Ababa, but this
was difficult given the high tensions and mistrust. Now
would be a good time for government to seize the initiative
and move forward on dialogue, Parliamentary review, capacity
building for the NEB, and international access to detainees
in the military camp in Dedesa. We were pleased that the
Parliament and the City government remained open to the
Opposition, but surprised and concerned about the NEB's
decision that Merera was no longer the head of his OLP party.
Taking these steps would not only improve the domestic
situation but demonstrate to the international community that
he remained committed to democracy.


3. (C) Prime Minister Meles replied that one chapter had
been shut with the CUDP's fomenting of street action. Their
unacceptable actions were a threat to democracy and had been
going on since May. He had warned them personally and the
international community as well. Now there was no turning
back. If we imagined that they would be released we were
mistaken. They would not. In fact to do so would threaten
democracy because it would foster a disrespect for the laws
of the country. The population would believe that the
international community handed out justice not the
government. The government would arrest and try those guilty
of insurrection. Some members of embassies continued to
harbor some CUDP leaders on the wanted list but that
situation would not be allowed to continue.


4. (C) Now a new chapter was opened. The task of the
government would be to create a permissive environment that
would allow the reforms agreed upon in the dialogue to move
ahead. In this regard Meles continued to wants to continue
the political dialogue initiated by the US and UN with the
legal opposition. To promote democratic procedures he would:

-- Review Parliamentary procedures either in-house
or with the assistance of the international community. The
rules would be changed if they were not in compliance with
international standards, but they could also be changed if
they did not work well for Ethiopia;

-- Accept capacity building assistance for the
NEB, preferable from AIRES, as they had prior experience.
When I complained that the current Chairman was waiting for
the new Board to be named before accepting international
assistance, Meles said that he would tell him to go ahead
now; and

-- Assure fair access to the media in cooperation
with the Parliamentary opposition, and he planned to work
with the donors to provide training for the media. (I
suggest we take advantage of this opening by providing
assistance to both government and private media.)



5. (C) As for the detainees, he would not permit access by
the international community or by the ICRC. The Ethiopian
Prison Fellowship had already had access to the CUPD leaders
and would also visit the holding facilities where thousands
are held. He would not allow the ICRC or international
community to visit because the donors -- in the EU - US
Ambassadors' Statement had called upon him to do so. The
Statement was a public demand and that was unacceptable,
especially as it had followed his Statement a day earlier. As
a result, only the items in the Ambassadors' Statement which
he had already agreed to do and were democratic obligations -
Parliament, NEB, Rule of Law, and Media -- would be done. I
replied that he was punishing us to make a point. Our
Statement was designed to be helpful by showing the way
forward and, frankly, it was absolutely necessary given the
massive arrests, deaths, and violence. Meles said he was
insulted. The British had withdrawn some development
assistance, demanding that the CUDP leadership be released
but "that would be over my dead body." I said I regreted
that he had felt personally insulted. Meles replied that he
did not harbor any ill will toward the ambassadors.


6. (C) Meles said he appreciated the principled position of
the US; he is pleased with it. Ethiopia would move ahead
with development and with democratic reform with our without
CUDP. I said I hoped speedily - he concurred. I told him
that A/S Jendayi Frazer and DAS Yamamoto would be giving
press interviews in the international and Diaspora media,
indicating our concerns. Meles reiterated that for the good
of the country, it must be democratic.

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ERITREA - ETHIOPIA BORDER
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7. (C) Meles characterized the border situation as "bad but
not that bad." He had seen the latest version of the UNSC
resolution that included sanctions. But there was no way
forward other than dialogue. Meles said, "this is not a
face-saving maneuver rather it is the only way to proceed
because to do otherwise would result in war." Meles said he
didn't know why we were so worried, there would only be war
if Isaias wants war. As long as Isaias is not prepared to go
to war the two governments - as they had in the past -- could
manage the border. I said that FM Seyoum had told Ambassador
Oshima that Ethiopia would reoccupy the Temporary Security
Zone if UNMEE withdrew. Meles said no -- that was possiblity
a misunderstanding -- Ethiopia and Eritrea could resolve the
issue of managing the TSZ if neither wished to go to war.
UNMEE is a good tripwire but it is not essential. If UNMEE
pulls out we would not take back our land.


8. (C) Meles said that if the US tries to force demarcation
without dialogue, this will strain our relations. For his
part Isaias will not be forced by sanctions or otherwise.
But he is not unduely worried about war starting without
UNMEE. Isaias might misunderstand but he (Meles) thinks that
Isaias now understands because of Ethiopia's strong stand and
the quick end to internal violence. I asked if Meles would
remove the "in principle" words in his five point plan and if
Ethiopia would attend a meeting of the EEBC as the US or the
UN would move forward a strategy for meetings with the
Witnesses and the EEBC. Meles replied that the international
community had urged him to use the words "agree in principle"
to the demarcation set by the EEBC, and that Ethiopia would
never attend a meeting of the EEBC. The Chairman of the EEBC
could be the Eritrea Foreign Minister he was so biased. The
EEBC has taken a "political stand."


9. (C) The Prime Minister asked why the USG has opposed the
proposal by Benin to include a paragraph advocating dialogue
since this was our position. I said that I understood that
our concern was procedural. He asked that we reconsider.
Turning to Isaias again he said that the worst thing the UNSC
could do was to give Isaias reason to act. We should just
ignore him as he was "jumping up and down on his bed to gain
attention and to get us to act." Meles argued that the
Algiers Agreement is a bilateral agreement. Altough UNMEE
has the responsibility and right to enforce the border
agreement, one state can renounce a bilateral agreement if
they wished. Did the UNSC interfere in the Nigerian /
Cameroon border dispute? Why did it insist on interfering
where it has no authority?
HUDDLESTON