UNREPENTANT MELES: NO TURNING BACK AFTER BLOODY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003804

SIPDIS

FOR A/S DR. FRAZER, DAS YAMAMOTO FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ET ELEC UNREST
SUBJECT: UNREPENTANT MELES: NO TURNING BACK AFTER BLOODY
WEEK OF PROTESTS


Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. SUMMARY: I asked to meet with Prime Minister Meles to
follow up on a promising conversation he had with Chairman
Konare of the African Union. Meles said that there was no
turning back from the recent crackdown on the opposition
CUDP: the jailed leaders would be tried for treason; those
demonstrators guilty of damaging property or human life would
be tried for lesser crimes. There would be no civil war, as
the European Community Representative Clarke had predicted.
Meles called the EU - US Ambassadors' statement unhelpful
because its premises were flawed: CUDP leaders were not
"political detainees" as stated, but rather criminals, and it
was not Meles' responsibility to reconstitute the "rump"
CUDP. I told Meles that the EU-US Ambassadors' statement
reflected our belief that the detainees were political, that
immediate action must be taken to release thousands of
innocent persons arrested during and after the
demonstrations, that house-to-house searches at night be
stopped, and that reconciliation and dialogue were the only
way forward. Meles responded that he was responsible for
charting the way forward, and that it would be democratic.
He would assure that the Parliament and the National
Elections Board (NEB) operated according to the Constitution
and the rule of law respected generally. I complained that
the government had failed to act speedily on these issues and
had contributed to the break down of the US-UK sponsored
talks, and asked for international observers at the CUDP
trial. Meles assured me that the trial would be conducted in
accordance with international norms, including access to
legal counsel. He did not specifically agree to
international observation, but said the trial would be public
and the evidence would be the statements of the CUDP leaders
in the US and in Ethiopia. In response to my suggestion that
a traditional Ethiopian form of reconciliation through Elders
be used to reach out to the people, Meles said that the
government has itself already started this process in Addis
Ababa, Gondor, Bahir Dar, and a number of other provincial
cities. He claimed that three hundred detainees were
released on Nov. 8. Next steps include the US and the Troika
continuing to press the government through private meetings
and public statement on human rights and the need for
reconciliation through a democratic and peaceful process. End
Summary


2. (C) PM Meles told me that previous US statements had been
generally constructive, reflective of our good partnership.
However, the EU-US Statement of Sunday was altogether
different. It seemed we did not understand the situation and
were intervening where we should not. We should understand
that what had occurred was an uprising that threatened
democracy; it should be a lesson for all of us that the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) is/was not
healthy, and that new shoots must rise from its ashes; and
the threat to democracy must be dealt with in a legal manner.
As for CUDP members not detained, he did not want to see a
"CUD Lite" extra-parliamentary opposition, nor was he
planning to "coddle" them. I responded that the purpose of
the EU-US statement was to be helpful and to point out that
the way forward was through dialogue and reconciliation. We
stated that CUDP leaders were political detainees because we
believe this to be the case, and that we believed the most
prudent way ahead would be to release them.


3. (C) Meles said the CUDP leaders would be charged with
treason, that they would have access to legal counsel and
that the trial would be fair and open to the public. Those
detained during and after the riots were already being
released, but those who had destroyed property or caused
injuries or death would be prosecuted. I urged international
observation of the CUDP leaders' trial, speedy release of the
thousands of others who had been detained, an end of night
searches and arrests and the quick restoration of calm in
Ethiopian cities. Meles said that three hundred detainees in
Addis had already been released, and that screening of other
detainees was proceeding. He rejected the idea of using a
traditional Ethiopian method of "Schmagalu" -- conflict
resolution through the counsel of respected Elders -- to
reach out to the suffering population. He explained that the
government was already holding meetings for this purpose in
Addis and regional cities where demonstrations had taken
place.


4. (C) The international community, according to Meles,
should not blur the line between the CUDP leaders who had
been jailed, those who were not detained because they had not
committed criminal acts, and the new CUDP -- should there be
one. Referring to the US and EU meeting with the
Parliamentary opposition last week, Meles said that we should
understand that when we talk with the opposition, they would
always put their best face forward -- not necessarily the
true situation; he compared such sessions to "pleading to the
emperor." I responded that the Parliamentary opposition was
on the whole quite reasonable and needed the space to
effectively represent its constituents' views. Meles
underlined his point that the EU - US Ambassadors statement
was "very unfortunate" and that external action/interference
would never be allowed to replace the constitution and laws
of the land.


5. (C) Meles told me that the worst was behind us; there
would be no civil war, as EU Commissioner seemed to think.
Events had unfolded as he had warned us; we should not be
surprised. The PM said he had tried to avoid the violence,
but once the CUDP leaders called for street action and
violence erupted, there was no turning back. I pointed out
that the government had unfortunately not moved swiftly to
carry out the actions agreed upon during the dialogue between
the parties. It remained extremely difficult for the
opposition to have their voices heard or get items on the
agenda in Parliament. As he well knew, the key issue of who
would be appointed to the National Electoral Board remained
unresolved. The Prime Minister broke in to say that building
democracy in Ethiopia was his responsibility and he would do
so along the lines agreed, namely appointment of impartial
National Elections Board; an independent judiciary; fair
parliamentary process, and rule of law and accountability. I
said that we very much want to help with building a strong
democracy via assistance in these critical areas. The Prime
Minister wrapped up by saying that the price had been paid.
It was worse than he had anticipated - the price was "very
high." He would now work to move beyond recent events and
carry out the needed democratic reforms. I responded that we
can help with democratic reforms and that good partners can
and do disagree.


6. (C) Comment: Like it or not, the way ahead is very clear:
the Prime Minister intends to call the shots on democratic
reforms. They will take place, but probably not as
extensively or as fast as we would like. Those CUDP leaders
who have not been detained will be allowed to play a
political role if/if they enter Parliament. CUDP supporters
in civil society and media leaders will stand trail for
treason, or possibly lesser crimes. Much of the evidence
against them will be their oral and written statements.
While the judicial process will probably not satisfy us, the
PM claims that it will be relatively open with access to
legal counsel. For our part we should work closely with the
Troika,and continue to make public our deep concerns about
human rights and the democratic process, not just as an
international standard but for the long term stability of
Ethiopia. In this regards, I met with the Troika this
morning to explore ways to get the EU - US statement in
Amaharic into the local print media now that much of the
private media is out of business and the government press
refuses to run it. We also agreed to continue to press key
government leaders on human rights and reform, including the
Ministers of Justice and Information, the Speaker of the
House, and the powerful behind the scene EPRDF operative
Sabata Nega. I have hosted a town meeting for Americans and
another for the Mission-wide local staff and backgrounder the
international press. UK ambassador and I will likely do an
interview with one or more of the still independent media to
get our governments' concerns known. The US statement
endorsing the EU-US statement and repeating critical parts of
the message was most helpful. The Troika will seek a meeting
with the PM to follow up on my conversation of last night. As
the situation in the streets returns to normal, the vast
majority of the detainees -- in the thousands -- will be
released but several hundred charged. The government is
unlikely to be shaken by another series of riots in the near
future given the brutality with which this one was put down.
PM Meles will move ahead with some democratic reforms.
Whether they will prevent a larger and more serious outbreak
of violence in the more distant future the road will depend
on how effectively and rapidly they are carried out that is
why we should help with building good governance. End
Comment.
HUDDLESTON