ETHIOPIA: CUD "LITE" PROTEST ENDS IN GOE CRACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003748

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ASEC ET UNREST ELEC
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CUD "LITE" PROTEST ENDS IN GOE CRACK
DOWN, HIGH-LEVEL ARRESTS AND AT LEAST 11 DEATHS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 3713

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. Summary: (C) At least 11 people were killed, reportedly
including two policemen, and a similar number injured when
riots broke out in the central Mercato and Piazza districts
after the CUDP called for a series of street actions.
Rock-throwing youth and security forces squared off in a
number of locations in these districts. Police arrested CUDP
president Hailu Shawel, mayor-elect Berhanu Nega and other
party leaders, in addition to what appeared to be hundreds of
demonstrators. MFA director for North America Grum Abay
charged that the CUDP had orchestrated the street violence,
busing in outsiders to provoke Mercato residents. A number
of other sources indicated that arrests of horn-honking CUPD
sympathizers sparked spontaneous reactions from students and
others in Mercato. A CUDP spokesman denied to PolEcon
Counselor that the CUDP had planned any violent acts and
promised to reiterate a call for non-violence in a radio
message Nov. 1. The CUDP official (who was arrested a short
time later) also said that the party's campaign of civil
disobedience would continue. A subsequent CUPD statement
called for a general strike beginning Nov. 2. The streets of
Addis had quieted somewhat by late afternoon on November 1,
but a significant possibility of continued violence exists.
The CUDP and GOE have thus moved away from dialogue and back
towards a confrontation whose future course is hard to
predict. End Summary.

--------------
CUDP Launches Civil Disobedience Campaign
--------------


2. (C) After more than a week of hesitation, the opposition
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) unveiled on
October 30 its new strategy of civil disobedience designed to
apply popular pressure on the GOE to negotiate the CUDP's
full eight-point agenda on democratization. The strategy
called on the public to undertake a graduated series of
measures, which would include:

1) a commercial boycott of the numerous businesses owned and
operated by the ruling Ethiopia People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF); these companies include a bank,
brewery, cement factory, printing press and assorted others.

2) An advertising and consumer boycott of all government
electronic media;

3) a stay-at-home strike for one week beginning either
November 7 or 14, depending on the end of Ramadan;

4) Social ostracization of individuals believed to be
cooperating in EPRDF "domination" efforts. The CUD specifies
that this measure does not apply to all EPRDF supporters, nor
by implication to all Tigrayans.

5) Open public gatherings to be specified later;

6) Cooperation to prevent "the illegitimate use of force" on
opposition members by security forces;

7) Notify NGOs, embassies and human rights organizations
about the "unlawful acts" of the GOE;

8) Honking car horns during rush hour the week beginning Oct.
31 in order to send a signal to visiting African Union heads
of state;


3. (C) The CUDP leadership adopted these measures amidst a
tightening security noose around the party's main offices in
Addis Ababa. Police and plain clothes security forces
surrounded the offices beginning on Friday, October 28 and
remained throughout the weekend. CUDP officials told emboffs
that at least a dozen party officials were rounded up in the
area around the offices, but security forces refrained from
arresting any well-known CUDP leaders. Security forces did
pull one local-hire British employee from the vehicle of the
British DCM in the vicinity of the offices, however, and
released her only after the personal intervention of British
Ambassador Bob Dewar. Two Dutch diplomats at the scene were
also taken briefly into police custody. CUDP leaders issued
a call for supporters to gather around the offices to protect
party officials from security forces, which led to more
arrests and crowd control efforts. CUDP first vice president
Bertukan Mideksa told Pol/Econ Counselor Oct. 31 that nearly
all those arrested over the weekend had been released after a
few hours, though at least three CUDP members had been beaten
while in custody. Meanwhile, the state media denied reports
that arrests had taken place at the CUDP headquarters. No
serious injuries were reported, but tensions ran high in the
area over the weekend. Another manifestation of increased
tensions was the series of police checkpoints established
around Addis Ababa at key intersections on October 30.

-------------- --------------
Horn-Honking Leads to Rock-Throwing and Repression
-------------- --------------


4. (C) On October 31, the first day of the CUDP's
horn-honking protest, the GOE reportedly responded by
arresting somewhere between 30 and 200 drivers from both
taxis and private vehicles for "instigating violence." News
of these arrests was disseminated through both state media
and private, opposition-oriented newspapers. On November 1,
reports suggest that additional arrests of drivers in the
central Mercato area prompted a popular reaction. Some
accounts suggest that arrests outside a large high school
prompted students to come out on the street and confront
police. Grum Abay, the MFA's director for European and North
American Affairs, told the Charge that afternoon that the
CUDP had bused its own activists into the Mercato area to
incite the protests. CUDP Director of International Affairs
Yacoub Hailemariam separately denied to Pol/Econ Counselor
that the party had organized any rock-throwing or street
actions. He insisted that the party's public messages had
emphasized non-violence, and had called only for
horn-honking.


5. (C) Charge and PolEcon Counselor surveyed the Mercato and
Piazza areas at midday and saw ample evidence of widespread
street battles. Many streets were littered with rocks that
had apparently been thrown at police and nearly all shops in
both areas were shuttered. Taxis and other vehicles had
vacated the area, but large numbers of people continued to
roam about and gather in small groups. Make-shift barricades
impeded traffic and some small fires were burning. Tension
was palpable but police appeared to have restored order in
all areas. Large numbers of police moved about in trucks and
on foot, some wearing riot gear. Others blocked off certain
areas. Emboffs also observed several police trucks carrying
water cannon. Groups of police were also rounding up groups
of demonstrators and transporting them in flat-bed trucks. A
number of ambulances raced around the area. One group
reported to PolEcon Counselor that large numbers of people
had been arrested, and others beaten.


6. (C) Post's security investigators confirmed with one local
hospital that eleven individuals had been killed in the
disturbances and another 11 injured. Wire reports placed the
number dead at five. A former GOE cabinet official told the
Charge late on Nov. 1 that two of the dead were policement.
Post will continue to gather information on casualties.

--------------
GOE Arrests Top CUD Leadership
--------------


7. (C) Several sources reported that at 4:00 pm local time,
security forces arrested senior CUDP leaders, including
President Hailu Shawel, Addis Ababa mayor-elect Berhanu Nega,
public affairs director Gizachew Shiferaw and Yacoub
Hailemariam. Other leaders may also have been taken into
custody. Post had no word on where they had been taken or
what charges would be filed against them. (Note: Senior GOE
officials have warned repeatedly that they have "piles of
evidence" against party leaders and were prepared to act on
it if street demonstrations took place. CUDP leaders had
been anticipating that they might be arrested, and discussed
the possibility several times with Charge and other emboffs
in recent weeks. End note.) Instructions for civil
disobedience that the party issued over the weekend indicated
that if the arrests occurred, the CUDP campaign would move
immediately to a stay-at-home strike. The party issued a
public statement to this effect late on Nov. 1, calling for
capital residents to stay at home beginning Nov. 2 for an
indefinite period.


8. (C) Prior to the actual arrests of opposition leaders, MFA
official Grum had told the Charge during their November 1
meeting that the GOE might finally round up senior CUDP
leaders in the wake of the protests. The Charge urged
continued restraint by the GOE, and argued that high-level
arrests might trigger more protests. Grum expressed
skepticism that popular reaction would be significant.

-------------- ---
CUDP, Already in Legal Limbo, May Soon Be Banned
-------------- ---


9. (C) Prior to the onset of demonstration and arrests, the
CUDP also continued to struggle on the legal front. After
expelling vice president Lidetu Ayalew from the party for
refusing to turn in his previous party's (EDUP-Medhin)
registration certificate along with the CUDP's official
merger documents to the National Electoral Board (NEB),the
coalition formally requested NEB approval for its merger on
October 28. The NEB responded by stating publicly that the
CUDP should cancel any public events or actions until its
application for official party status had been approved, and
reiterated that the party had not legal standing to organize
activities until its application had been approved. Lidetu
told post his refusal to relinquish his previous party's
registration stemmed in part from his concern that the NEB
would use the CUDP's transitional status against its leaders
when they were arrested (see ref A). PM Meles and other
EPRDF leaders have made clear that they intended to ban the
CUDP and charge its leaders with treason if they pursued
street action against the GOE.

-------------- --------------
Comment: A Predictable Tragedy, An Unpredictable Future
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Post and other members of the Ambassadors Donors
Group have argued to CUDP leaders for weeks that in the
current climate, even a non-violent public demonstration was
likely to spiral out of control and lead to unnecessary
deaths. That prediction came true on November 1. The CUDP's
stated purpose for its campaign was to force the GOE to give
more ground in its negotiation on further democratizing
Ethiopia's institutions, especially the National Electoral
Board. The MFA's Grum Abay told us today, however, that the
time for such negotiations had now passed.


11. (C) Today's killings and arrests may persuade remaining
CUDP leaders and the public to step back from the brink of
broader violence, or may plunge Ethiopia even deeper into
crisis. The CUDP leadership's decision to forego Parliament
and pursue its agenda through popular protests implied that
the party would be willing to withstand arrests and
repression along the way, however. The GOE can be expected
to deal with continued street action decisively. Post will
work with other donor embassies to urge GOE restraint and an
end to provocative actions by the CUDP. We will also seek to
pick up the pieces of the lapsed political dialogue we
promoted several weeks ago.
HUDDLESTON