ETHIOPIA: INFO MINISTER BEREKET SAY GOE OPEN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003383

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ET ELEC UNREST
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: INFO MINISTER BEREKET SAY GOE OPEN TO
REFORM -- AFTER PARLIAMENT IS SEATED

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3277

B. ADDIS ABABA 3250

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: GOE Minister of Information Bereket Simon
told Charge Sept. 15 that the GOE would consider steps to
restore confidence in Ethiopian democratic institutions, but
only after the opposition agrees to participate in
Parliament. He welcomed the Ambassadors' Donors Group (ADG)
statement and the Carter Center draft report he had seen,
indicating that there was much to learn from such advice when
offered "in good faith." He questioned the opposition's
democratic credentials, criticized its proposals, and claimed
that there were no trustworthy moderates with whom the GOE
could deal. Former leaders from the DERG regime were
steadily taking control of the opposition, he said. Bereket
claimed that the opposition's real strategy was not to
negotiate for reform, but rather to provoke a skirmish in the
streets with security forces in the hope that it could force
the EPRDF from power. Bereket reaffirmed the GOE's vocation
for democratization and sustainable development, and promised
that the opposition would have a real voice in parliament --
if it shows up. End Summary


2. (C) Charge made an introductory call on Minister of
Information Bereket Simon Sept. 15, accompanied by Pol/Econ
Counselor Kevin Sullivan. Bereket has served as the public
face and senior negotiator for the GOE throughout this year's
troubled election process. Ref A contains Bereket's comments
on the Ethiopia-Eritrean border situation, while this message
focused on internal politics.

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ADG Statement: We Can See Your Good Intentions
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3. (C) Bereket complimented the Charge on the "helpful" ADG
statement issued Sept. 13 (Ref B). The GOE had difficulties
with some elements, which the Minister insinuated had been
inserted by EU missions, but he concluded that "you can see
the intent. You want us to move forward in the democratic
process and you are willing to help." He contrasted the
statement with what he called the "unprofessional" statement
issued by the EU Observer Mission (EOM). The Charge replied
that she wouldn't have been satisfied if the GOE had like
everything about the ADG statement. Ethiopia was at a
crossroads, and both the GOE and the opposition had a
responsibility to advance democracy.

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We are Democrats, and Parliament Will Prove It
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4. (C) The Charge asked whether the opposition would be
allowed to play an effective role if parties did decide to
take their seats in Parliament. Bereket answered that the
GOE was committed to building a democratic society. He
claimed that "no one forced us to open up prior to the
election. No other African country has done as much." While
opposition parties advocated positions unacceptable to the
EPRDF, they had the right to express their ideas and would
have sufficient space to do so. If the opposition proposed
agenda items in parliament with which the GOE did not agree,
the ruling coalition could use the opportunity for public
debates with their opponents. "If an agenda item adds
value," he said, "we'll allow the debate."

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Opposition Neither Democratic Nor Moderate
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5. (C) Bereket charged that opposition complaints about
Parliamentary rule changes were just a smokescreen for the
parties real intentions: to seize power by unconstitutional
means. "They don't have the strength to overthrow us by
force, but they are hoping for some skirmish that they can
take advantage of." The Minister told the Charge that "you
hear there are moderates among the opposition, but who are
they?" The CUD's Berhanu Nega had participated in the
drafting of some of the opposition's most extreme statements.
Bereket claimed that he had asked Berhanu to stake out
moderate positions in public, but the CUD leader had refused.
The Minister had had similar experiences with UEDF leader
Beyene Petros. Petros had seemed moderate, but became
another person in his public statements. Bereket claimed
that current opposition parties remained too closely aligned
with former leaders of the repressive DERG regime, and would
have to be sidelined -- democratically, of course -- before a
genuine, constitutional opposition could emerge. Current
opposition leaders called the Ethiopian Constitution
"Stalinist", a charge Bereket rejected. The Minister charged
that Amhara CUD leaders like Hailu Shawal did not accept the
reality of a modern, multi-ethnic Ethiopia. DERG elements
were now intervening in, and basically controlling, the CUD's
meetings with constituents. They were also controlling
"moderates" like Berhanu, Bereket said.

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If Opposition Respects Constitution, Reforms Are Possible
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6. (C) The Charge pointed out that public perceptions of what
represented "old" and "new" in Ethiopian politics seemed
quite different that the Minister's characterization. A
government that had been in power for fourteen years was
bound to accumulate problems and political baggage. The GOE
appeared to face a tremendous challenge in this sense. The
Charge asked whether there was anything that the GOE could do
to strengthen the position of so-called moderates in the
opposition, while at the same time burnishing its own public
and international image. Even reaffirming in public some of
the same commitments that Bereket had just made would help,
she added. She also referred to the Carter Center Report's
recommendations, and noted that it would be good for the GOE
to recapture the image of a government moving forward on
democratization. Pol/Econ Counselor offered the specific
example of re-opening the public media to the opposition, and
toning down GOE rhetoric on state radio and television.


7. (C) Bereket responded that "once the opposition agrees to
play by the rules, many things are possible." If the GOE
"gave them the media" before such a commitment, however, the
Minister feared that the opposition leaders would simply
issues public calls for violence. The GOE would not be able
to monitor all media to prevent such statement, he said.
Bereket recalled being burned by CUD and UEDF leaders several
months prior after a dialogue brokered by EU Ambassador Tim
Clarke. The GOE and opposition figures had labored over a
positive, forward-looking joint statement, only to have the
opposition depart radically from the script during the press
conference and launch attacks on the GOE and the electoral
process. Nevertheless Bereket appeared to take the Charge's
suggestions on board. He promised to come up with something
that the GOE felt comfortable with. "We know you want a
stable, democratic ally," the Minister said. "We'll move
forward in the right direction. The clouds will disperse."


8. (C) Despite this sunny prediction, however, the Minister's
mood turned somewhat darker when discussing the coming weeks.
He saw several potential flashpoints, most notably the
release of the EOM's final report on elections (note:
presumably postponed until sometime after Parliament is to
meet as per reftel). Another difficult development would be
the consolidation of the CUD from a coalition into a unified
party, likely under Hailu Shawel.

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Comment: Kinder, Gentler Bereket -- But No Clear Opening
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9. (C) Bereket, seen by many as an EPRDF "heavy", took a
warmer tone and expressed more receptiveness on democratic
reforms than in some previous meetings. His friendlier
demeanor appeared to reflect the GOE's basic comfort with the
U.S. role in the Ambassadors' Donors Group, as well as the
Carter Center report. Nonetheless, Bereket offered no
concrete promises on GOE steps to defuse political tensions
and continued to reject the legitimacy of Ethiopia's leading
opposition parties.
HUDDLESTON