TOGO OPPOSITION LEADER GILCHRIST OLYMPIO'S VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ACCRA 000769

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015
TAGS: GH PGOV PHUM PREL TO
SUBJECT: TOGO OPPOSITION LEADER GILCHRIST OLYMPIO'S VIEWS
ON UPCOMING ELECTION

REF: ACCRA 535

Classified By: Polchief Scott Ticknor for reason 1.5 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: On April 20, PolChief met with Togolese
opposition leader Gilchrist Olympio in Accra, at PolChief's
request. Olympio was optimistic the opposition would win the
April 24 election, although the saw the potential for
government manipulation of the vote counting. If the
opposition wins, they would immediately reach out to the
military and move toward a referendum to change the
constitution. If they lose, there could be serious violence
which opposition leadership would have little ability to
control. The military might split. He said Ghanaian troops
of Ewe ethnicity might cross the border to help their fellow
Ewes. Olympio was dismissive of ECOWAS, discouraged with the
European Union, and critical of France. End comment.

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Opposition Could Win Elections
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2. (C) Olympio was concerned about RPT/military efforts to
intimidate voters and rig the polls, noting that conditions
are not in place for a free and fair election. He
underscored the pro-RPT bias of the National Election
Commission (CENI) and judiciary and noted government steps to
block participation by international observers, observer
training, participation by opposition party polling agents,
and opposition access to the media.


3. (C) Nonetheless, he was optimistic that the opposition
would win the most votes in the April 24 election. The
opposition is well organized and is taking precautions
against manipulation (such as distributing lanterns and
satellite phones). He believes the Togolese people are eager
for a change and will vote heavily for the opposition. He
was impressed by the reception he received in Togo last
weekend (it took him over four hours to go from the border to
Lome because of the crowds.) In a conversation with Olympio
earlier that day, opposition candidate Akitani Bob commented
that he was surprised by the strong show of support he found
while traveling in northern regions of Togo (and by the fact
that soldiers watched his campaigning without interference.)
There are no issues in the election aside from a desire for
change, he said, adding confidently that Togolese are so fed
up with the Eyadema legacy that "even a sheep in a blanket"
could win this election.


4. (C) While confident that the opposition will win the
most votes, he fears the government might manipulate the vote
counting to manufacture an RPT victory or take other measures
(such as creating a national electricity blackout or ballot
stuffing) to rig Sunday's results. A large margin victory
for the RPT will be seen as a sure sign of election rigging,
he added.

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If the Opposition Wins
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5. (C) Olympio's best case scenario is a substantial
opposition victory with no military backlash followed by a
period of political reform. The opposition has already been
reaching out to members of the armed forces, who Olympio said
have been receptive, and would this outreach would intensify
after winning the election. Some military officers are
frustrated with the decayed state of the Togolese economy.
Others are purely motivated by money and could be willing to
support an opposition government. Olympio sees the needfor
reform in the military, although at this poit it would have
t be very gradual. If the oppoition wins the election, the
opposition would also hold a referendum to change the
constitution, and reform CENI and the judiciary to remove
Eyadema-era practices and cronies. If the opposition wins,
there would be no vendetta against Faure Gnassingbe, who
Olympio described as "just a kid" who is being manipulated.


6. (C) Olympio said he has not decided whether he would go
back to play a political role in an opposition-led Togo or
would retire from politics (he claimed he was tired of it).
He was also not sure if he would go back to Togo before the
election, saying he was consulting with opposition leaders
and thought his presence might be more of a hindrance and
distraction than a help at this point. He also did not want

to be stuck in Togo if the border is closed for a while.

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If Gnassingbe Wins
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7. (C) If Faure Gnassingbe wins, there could be "an
implosion" of violence, starting as early as the night of
April 24. Olympio claimed many of his young supporters in
particular would not accept a Gnassingbe victory and have a
plan to instigate violence if the opposition loses. They
have access to arms and are beyond the control of opposition
leadership. He was surprised during his trip to Lome last
weekend by the "hundreds" of youthful supporters who
surrounded him for protection. When PolChief asked what he
and the leadership were doing to prevent violence from within
their ranks, Olympio said there was not much he could do when
the other side was doing the provoking. He denied that
opposition backers had instigated violence last weekend,
putting all the blame on the government. It was difficult to
predict where post-election violence might occur, although
Lome could be particularly violent. He thought the Togo
military might split, exacerbating the violence, and that
fighting in the country could have a strong ethnic dimension.


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International Role
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8. (C) Olympio was largely critical of the international
role to date. The Ghanaian government was worried about a
possible refugee influx but "isn't doing anything about it".
He described his March 16 meeting with President Kufuor as
merely "pleasantries and photo ops". Olympio thought some
ethnic Ewe Ghanaian troops or ex-military might cross the
border to help defend their fellow Ewes, if attacked.
According to Olympio, the European Union was not interested
in playing an active role, deferring to ECOWAS. ECOWAS was
"just a group of bankrupt countries". In a meeting three
weeks ago, Nigerian President Obasanjo reiterated to Olympio
that no other ECOWAS countries had an interest in greater
involvement in the Togo crisis. Nigeria and South Africa are
the only African countries who could influence the situation,
he said. Several European Missions in Accra are sending
informal observers to Togo for the election. Olympio was
critical of France and said many Togolese intensely dislike
France for its support of Eyadema and its role in propping up
dictators throughout Africa. He saw no general cause for
concern about violence against foreigners, although he
conceded that some French and whites mistaken for French
could be attacked.

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Comment
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9. (C) Olympio was surprisingly relaxed and generally
upbeat, given political developments in Togo. He was open
with his views (and cell phone numbers of key contacts),
although he made frequent historical digressions. He appears
energetic and in constant touch with opposition leaders in
Togo. It was clear that he believes the opposition has a
chance of winning the election. It was also apparent that he
is doing nothing to actively dissuade a violent backlash if
the opposition loses. Unlike in our March 15 meeting
(reftel),in which he praised President Bush, this time he
made no mention of U.S. influence on the situation.

YATES


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