Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ACCRA464
2005-03-08 14:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Accra
Cable title:  

A GHANAIAN ANALYST'S VIEW OF THE TOGO CRISIS

Tags:  GH PGOV PREL TO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ACCRA 000464 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2015
TAGS: GH PGOV PREL TO
SUBJECT: A GHANAIAN ANALYST'S VIEW OF THE TOGO CRISIS

Classified By: POLCHIEF SCOTT TICKNOR FOR REASONS 1.5 D AND E.

C O N F I D E N T I A L ACCRA 000464

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2015
TAGS: GH PGOV PREL TO
SUBJECT: A GHANAIAN ANALYST'S VIEW OF THE TOGO CRISIS

Classified By: POLCHIEF SCOTT TICKNOR FOR REASONS 1.5 D AND E.


1. (C) Summary: James Gbeho, one of Ghana's most prominent
foreign policy analysts and a former Foreign Minister,
recently presented a paper in Accra on the Togo crisis. He
was cynical about the motives of Faure Gnassingbe and the
Togolese military. He saw the possibility of civil war, with
significant implications for Ghana and the region. He
privately told Pol FSN that Nigeria had threatened Gnassingbe
with military force. End summary.


2. (U) In a February 24 public presentation in Accra,
Ambassador James Victor Gbeho, one of Ghana's leading foreign
policy analysts, a retired senior diplomat and Foreign
Minister under former President J.J. Rawlings, offered a
crisp analysis of the situation in Togo. He described Faure
Gnassingbe and his government as "past masters at deception
and prevarication who will play for time while they dig in
and contrive illegal moves to perpetuate their authoritarian,
corrupt and illegal seizure of power." He offered the
following analysis:

Origins of the crisis: The crisis stems primarily from the
Togolese military's desire for self-preservation and
perpetuation of benefits enjoyed during 38 years of Eyadema.
The predominantly northern, ethnically Kabiye Togolese army
is afraid that giving up power will expose them to revenge
and endanger their personal safety and misbegotten wealth.
When they took power, Gnassingbe and the military acted
according to a prearranged game plan.
Implications for Togo: Any outbreak of violence would set
Togo on a path of civil war. Neighboring countries
considering invading Togo to oust the Gnassingbe junta should
think again, given the potential for spurring more broad
based violence. Togo could split along north-south lines.
Civil war would make Togo a magnet for illegal arms smuggling
in the region.

Implications for Ghana: Because Ghana and Togo share almost
all major tribes, instability in Togo could spur ethnic
violence in Ghana. Ghana-Togo relations, currently the best
in four decades, would be strained. Ghana's eastern border
would be destabilized by movements of fighters, flows of
illegal arms, and refugees. Ghana could not support a
meaningful refugee program by itself and would need
assistance. Civil war would also destroy Ghana's overland
trade to Benin and Nigeria and disrupt cross-border economic
activity.

Implications for the Region: A destabilized Togo would
damage the economies of West Africa. Traders from Ghana and
Benin have already slowed down commercial activities as they
keep a watch on the Togo crisis. Conflict in Togo would
attract some of the hundreds of young mercenaries in the
region, including child soldiers. The Togo situation could
embolden militaries in other regional countries, most notably
in Guinea. ECOWAS has done admirable work in responding to
the Togo crisis, but failure in Togo would likely spell doom
for the organization.

Solutions: An imperfect solution is preferable to full blown
civil war. The current, biased constitution is not a good
document from which to build democracy in Togo and needs to
be revised. The Electoral Commission and National Assembly
are partisan and need reforming. Elections should not be
held for six months or a year, allowing time to amend
capricious laws, create a new voter register, and prepare for
the elections. Togolese should be prepared to indemnify
perpetrators of abuses in the interest of peace and national
unity.

Comment
--------------


3. (C) Some other private think tank analysts here share
the suspicions that Gnassingbe and the Togolese military are
insincere and trying their best to buy time. They concur
that an ethnic conflict in Togo could fuel a flow of illegal
arms and mercenaries in the region. While Gbeho's
presentation was before elections were called in Togo and
Gnassingbe resigned, much of his analysis is still relevant
as the perspective of an influential private Ghanaian analyst
with excellent access in the GOG and academia. Ambassador
Gbeho told Pol FSN privately that ECOWAS Chairman Chambas (a
former colleague) informed him that Obasanjo had threatened
Gnassingbe with a Nigerian military invasion if he did not
bend to ECOWAS demands. He also confirmed information which
Pol FSN has heard from other sources that the Ghanaian
Embassy in Togo is heavily staffed by Ghanaian intelligence
officers.




YATES