Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ACCRA1386
2005-07-14 17:11:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Accra
Cable title:  

GHANAIAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY SHOWS RISING

Tags:  ECON GH PGOV PREL SOCI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001386 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON GH PGOV PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: GHANAIAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY SHOWS RISING
CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND CORRUPTION

REF: A) ACCRA 1051 B) ACCRA 892

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001386

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON GH PGOV PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: GHANAIAN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY SHOWS RISING
CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND CORRUPTION

REF: A) ACCRA 1051 B) ACCRA 892


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A March survey of popular opinion in
Ghana, released on July 6 by the Center for Democratic
Development, revealed mounting concern about the economy and
corruption, especially perceived corruption by the president
and his staff. Nonetheless, the survey revealed that support
for democratic fundamentals, a Ghanaian national identity,
and the incumbent Kufuor administration remain strong. The
president's approval ratings are high and the ruling New
Patriotic Party (NPP) would win by 52% if an election were
held again, according to the survey. Opposition parties have
had mixed reactions. End Summary.

--------------
Unhappy About the Economy
--------------


2. (U) On July 6, the highly respected Ghanaian NGO Center
for Democratic Development (CDD) released the results of its
third survey of popular opinion in Ghana (the other two were
done in 1999 and 2002). The poll, termed an "Afrobarometer"
and partly funded by USAID, was conducted between March 10 -
21, 2005 among a nationally representative sample of 1,199
adults. On the economic front, the statistics paint a grim
picture: 63% of respondents view the overall state of the
economy as "bad," while 65% describe their own standard of
living as "bad." The biggest economic concern was
unemployment, with 22% citing unemployment as the country's
worst problem (down from 34% in the 2002 survey).
Respondents perceive a worsening job market and have growing
concerns about education and health. Skepticism toward free
market economics continues: 78% of those surveyed felt that
all public servants should be allowed to keep their jobs, 66%
believed the GOG's economic policies have hurt the majority
of Ghanaians, 59% asserted that economic liberalization has
widened the gap between rich and poor, and slightly over half
opined that economic reform had lowered the general standard
of living.

--------------
Overall Satisfaction with President Kufuor
--------------


3. (U) The survey asked a number of questions designed to
gauge popular impressions of the incumbent Kufuor
administration. The president received high marks in

virtually all areas, other than the economy. Over 70% lauded
the GOG's performance in combating HIV/AIDS, improving basic
health services, reducing crime, and addressing educational
needs. Between 50-60 percent of respondents felt the GOG had
done well in delivering water, ensuring that everyone had
enough to eat, and fighting corruption. 87% of Ghanaians
expressed trust in President Kufuor and 76% approved of his
performance in office. When the survey asked respondents
to name the political party they would support if elections
were held tomorrow, the incumbent National Patriotic Party
(NPP) beat the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC),
52 to 22%. (Another 22% said they would not vote and 4% of
the vote would go to minor parties.)

--------------
Corruption Increasing
--------------


4. (U) Despite general approval of Kufuor's performance,
respondents expressed growing concerns about corruption in
Ghana. The perception that corruption is commonplace
increased between 2002 and 2005 for every public institution
covered in the survey. The biggest increase was perceived
corruption by the president and his staff (up from 38% of
respondents in 2002 to 56% in 2005.) Perceptions that
corruption is commonplace also increased for members of
parliament (up from 52 to 59%). The perception is highest
for the police (81%),judiciary (72%),and tax officials
(71%). Over half of respondents said corruption was
commonplace among health workers and teachers, while 12-15%
of respondents indicated they had paid a bribe to the police,
health care workers, or school officials, or to obtain
household services such as electricity, water, or telephone
connections.

--------------
National Identity
--------------


5. (U) Although ethnic awareness remains high, a plurality
of Ghanaians (42%) feel equal loyalty to their Ghanaian and
ethnic identities. Another 23% consider themselves
exclusively "Ghanaian," with no particularly tribal
loyalties, while only 18% said they identified themselves
primarily or exclusively by their tribal ethnicity.
Ghanaians were divided (47 to 43%) over whether they perceive
tribal favoritism, with the larger number alleging that the
GOG had treated their ethnic group fairly. The Afrobarometer
also found that 75% of Ghanaians say they take part regularly
in religious activities.

--------------
Reaction to the Survey
--------------

6. (U) The CDD survey received extensive media coverage and
met a range of responses. The opposition NDC had varying
reactions. According to press reports, the NDC's former
presidential candidate John Atta Mills lambasted the report,
calling it "bogus and fraudulent," questioning the relevance
of the findings that the NPP would trounce the NDC in
national elections, if the elections were held today. Other
NDC officials said they wanted to study the report more
carefully, while some concurred with the survey's findings on
corruption and the economy and one NDC youth leader called
the report a "wake up call."


7. (U) Minister of Information (and former NPP General
Secretary) Dan Botwe said the GOG was examining the survey

SIPDIS
results despite its contradictions, acknowledging that the
GOG still had a lot of work to do to "bring (economic)
development to our people." He added that perhaps some
respondents did not fully understand the poll's questions.
One maverick within the NPP, MP Kennedy Agyapong, also
cautioned against his party's taking too much comfort from
the survey, calling on the CDD to "stop deceiving Ghanaians
as well as the NPP." He noted that previous polls had
over-estimated the NPP's winning margins during the elections
of December 2004.


8. (U) The small CPP party said the report needed to be
reviewed dispassionately, highlighting the findings on
corruption and the economy. Journalist Kwesi Pratt, Jr.,
editor of the daily Insight, opined that the CDD's unexpected
polling results may have resulted from an attempt to please
its donors. Another journalist, Alfred Ogbamey of the Gyen
Nyame Concord, added that the survey had been conducted
hastily at a time when the GOG was still forming a cabinet.
He derided the contradictory findings of widespread
corruption together with high support for President Kufuor as
"irreconcilable."

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The overall conclusions of the report track with
our sense of politics and economics in Ghana. It is not
surprising that the March survey would show party support at
a level comparable to the results of the national election
only three months earlier (which the NPP won with 52 percent
of the vote). One CDD researcher who worked on the
Afrobarometer told PolChief that most of the 22% in the CDD
study who say they would not vote are probably NDC supporters
(some of whom may not want to reveal their preferences,
especially to an NGO which the NDC views as NPP-biased).
This would validate the NDC's 44% showing in the national
elections. Many analysts attributed the NPP's narrow margin
of victory in the election to popular perceptions that the
masses had not benefited from economic growth. A majority of
voters at the time of the election were willing to give
President Kufuor more time -- and the survey suggests this
may still be the case. This may explain the contradiction in
the survey between growing unhappiness about Kufuor's record
on the economy and corruption and sustained support for the
Kufuor presidency. It also suggests that other issues not
captured by the CDD survey (such as fears about the NDC
because of its legacy, ethnic divides, personalities, the
NPP's record on civil liberties, local issues, etc.) may
weigh more heavily on voting decisions.


10. (SBU) As post has reported previously (refs A and B),
the success of the second Kufuor administration will depend
in large measure on how it handles the economy (especially
its ability to reduce poverty among the masses) and how it
controls corruption. The issue of corruption has received
significant press over the past few months, which no doubt
impacted the survey perceptions. Other sources concur with
CDD's findings that there is a popular perception of rising
corruption among public institutions. CDD Executive Director
Gyimah-Boadi told PolChief he believes that in this case
perception has some basis in reality and that the African
Peer Review Report on Ghana (which he has helped draft and is
expected to be released in August) will also highlight
concerns about corruption.


11. (SBU) Perhaps the most encouraging (though not
surprising) news in the survey was that two-thirds of those
polled saw democracy as preferable to any other kind of
government and that, despite concerns about corruption, there
is a high level of popular trust for many public
institutions, including the Electoral Commission, parliament,
the judiciary, and security services. Ghanaians are willing
to give their democracy time to work through its problems.
However, in the conclusion of the Afrobarometer report, CDD
notes that "The billion cedi question is whether Ghanaian
democratic development can be sustained without significant
improvements in the popular welfare." At the least, the
Afrobarometer report is serving to sharpen the public debate
on governance, especially on the issue of corruption, which
is healthy for Ghana's democratic development.
YATES