WHAT NEXT ON BAKASSI? IS THE UN STILL IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000880

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015
TAGS: PREL CM NI
SUBJECT: WHAT NEXT ON BAKASSI? IS THE UN STILL IN THE
PICTURE?

REF: A. YAOUNDE 889


B. 04 ABUJA 1804

C. ABUJA 237

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (B & D).


1. (C) From Embassy Abuja's perspective, it seems UNSGSR Ould
Abdullah's efforts to bring Nigeria and Cameroon to closure
on Bakassi may be in trouble. As we have long reported (Ref
B and before),the GON is only President Obasanjo on Bakassi,
and Obasanjo has often said that he and President Biya would
work out implementation of the ICJ decision, including
Bakassi, and the maritime border past the "Point G" end of
the ICJ verdict. UNSYG Annan's Special Representative Ould
Abdallah has been coordinating the "Mixed Commission" where
less contentious implementation of northern portions of the
ICJ decision has been hammered out, and has been shuttling
between Obasanjo and Biya. But Annan's summit with Biya and
Obasanjo in Geneva May 11 appears to have produced nothing,
and we understand from Embassy Yaounde and the French Embassy
here that Biya is angry with Ould Abdallah.


2. (C) We understand from various sources that the next Mixed
Commission meeting is being put off from June until at least
August. The Mixed Commission is not where Bakassi would be
decided unless Biya and Obasanjo both wished it so, but
putting off the Mixed Commission meeting does symbolize the
impasse. It is unclear whether postponement was Cameroon's
idea, angry with Ould Abdallah, or whether it was the GON
arguing (as it often has) that nothing on the border can be
done during the rainy season -- i.e. until October. It does
not matter much which. Obasanjo and Biya are both entrenched
in their positions, nothing will be decided inside the Mixed
Commission until Obasanjo and Biya agree outside it, and Ould
Abdallah seems unable to find any third options on Bakassi
that Biya will accept (Ref A).


3. (C) The French Embassy here in Abuja told us two
interesting things May 27. First, that Ould Abdallah accuses
Nigerian head of delegation Bola Ajibola and Cameroonian head
of delegation Amadou Ali of being time-servers prolonging
negotiations to keep their paychecks, much the way (the
French say) that Ould Abdallah is accused of stringing out
the process to keep his job and perks. Second, that the GOF
apparently did not raise Bakassi with Obasanjo during his
four-day official visit to France May 24-27. Debt relief,
UNSC seat, Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigerians immigrating to
Europe, Darfur -- all yes. Bakassi no. The British High
Commission told us earlier that Bakassi had not been raised
during Obasanjo's recent visit to London either.


4. (C) The French Embassy told us France is not overly
concerned with continuing stalemate so long as both sides are
talking, because Cameroon was unlikely to go to war with
Nigeria and would only hurt itself bringing the issue to the
UNSC. But France was concerned if Biya's anger at Ould
Abdallah put the Mixed Commission's continuance in jeopardy.
France did not mind the next Mixed Commission meeting being
put off, perhaps as late as September, but it did want the
process between Nigeria and Cameroon to continue.
CAMPBELL